Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 152031 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 431 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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An active and dynamic weather pattern will be in place across the North Country through Monday night. A strong frontal system will approach from the Ohio River Valley tonight, moving across the North Country late Monday into Monday night. Subfreezing surface temperatures will maintain a threat of intermittent freezing drizzle and freezing rain tonight, especially away from the Champlain Valley. With an increasing pressure gradient, expect to see strong east and southeast winds develop along the western slopes of the Green Mountains late tonight, and peaking during the day Monday. Southeasterly wind gusts may locally exceed 60 mph along the immediate western slopes of the Green Mountains.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 350 PM EDT Sunday...Minimal changes needed from previous forecast, with good continuity noted in 12Z NWP guidance suite on mixed precipitation tonight and high wind expectations for Monday. We`ve continued the High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories from 4am thru 11pm Monday. Likewise, the Winter Weather Advisories continue areawide through 8am Monday, though the winter weather threat will be gradually decreasing. In terms of the mixed precipitation trends, mosaic composite reflectivity shows most of the steady precipitation lifting north of the Intl Border at 20Z. Will continue to see 850mb boundary lift northward as a warm front overnight, with best forcing shifting north of the forecast area thru 06Z or so. In its wake, residual low cloud deck will result in periods of freezing drizzle this evening. Temperatures will generally hold in the 28-32F range, except slightly above freezing in the immediate Champlain Valley and srn St. Lawrence county. Thus, may see some icy spots redevelop with the setting sun this evening. As the occulded front shifts northwestward into wrn NY into central PA after midnight, will begin to see additional bands of precipitation lifting nwd into VT and nrn NY. Should see plain rain in wrn VT (temps mid 30s), but east of the Greens should still have favorable profiles for freezing rain and pockets of sleet. Likewise in NY, may see some residual freezing rain in the Adirondacks as precipitation redevelops late tonight. Additional ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch are possible. Thus, can`t rule out some icy roads in spots into the Monday morning commute. Winds: Main threat during the near-term will be locally strong/damaging sely downslope winds west of the Green Mtns and associated power outages. P-gradient tightens significantly also the western slopes of the Green Mtns overnight, and should see wind gusts 40-50 mph by 06Z in the Rutland area, and then peaking 50-65mph during the daylight hrs Monday in Rutland/Addison counties. RAP/BTV- 4km model soundings show strong ely flow (50-60kts) in the 0-1km layer, which should become well- mixed below the main inversion. So, we continue to see a strong signal supporting the High Wind Warning, especially across Rutland and ern Addison counties. Further north, the highest winds will be a bit narrower and more confined to the communities in the immediate wrn slopes of the Greens. For impact, would anticipate scattered to possible numerous power outages in the High Wind Warning area. Elsewhere, could see gusts up to 50 mph in spots in the Champlain Valley and also across the Northern Adirondacks with isold power outages possible. Signals are a bit more mixed for the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont with more stable low-level conditions. Could see some isold stronger wind gusts 40-50 mph in nern VT as well (mainly higher terrain), but overall coverage/potential appears lower. Temperatures will gradually rise into the low-mid 40s during the day Monday. Periods of rain are expected as well, especially in upslope areas (ern slopes of the Greens and Adirondacks). As occlusion passes to our north and east, colder vertical temperature profiles will filter back in Monday night with periods of rain/snow showers (especially across the nrn Adirondacks). Total precipitation through Monday night generally 0.50-0.75", except locally 0.75-1.25" in sern VT and along the ern slopes of the Adirondacks. Lows Monday night generally expected in the low to mid 30s with diminishing winds.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 318 PM EDT Sunday...Cool and showery weather continues as upper low pressure will pinwheel over the North Country into midweek. After initially starting out as a rain/snow mix early Tuesday, showers will transition over to mostly rain for all but the highest terrain by the afternoon with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. However, this will turn back over to snow overnight Tuesday night. Showers will become more focused in the mountains Tuesday night, as well. Snow accumulation of an inch or so is possible after dark, perhaps as much as 2 inches in the higher elevations. Tuesday night lows will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 318 PM EDT Sunday...A large upper low will slowly push eastward into the Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday, keeping the threat of showers around through midweek. Though there may be a very brief break in the precipitation Wednesday night, a couple of waves of low pressure will bring more rain and snow to the region Thursday and Friday. It`s not till later Saturday or Sunday that we`ll finally get high pressure to build in and dry things out. Temperatures will remain below normal through the entire period, right up through next weekend. Daytime highs will be warm enough for rain, but snow is more likely during the overnights, especially over the higher terrain. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday...Big picture is that the mixed precipitation event will continue through the evening/night, the tricky details come in timing the periods of heaviest precipitation. Thinking the most organized precipitation will shift north over the next few hours, containing a mix of mainly freezing rain and sleet. This will bring periodic MVFR/IFR conditions to all TAF sites with some general improvement expected between 20Z and 04Z as precipitation becomes lighter in intensity. The next band of heavier precipitation will move northward between 04Z and 10Z, bringing MVFR/IFR visibilities and ceilings at times. At this point, precipitation should be mainly in the form of rain for all TAF sites except KMPV. Expect freezing rain to linger through the night east of the Green Mountains, including at KMPV where colder air will be slower to scour out near the surface. Once this second more focused wave of precipitation has pushed out of the area, precipitation will become more showery in nature. Easterly winds will increase in intensity through the TAF period. The western slopes of the Green Mountains will see the strongest gusts, with KRUT expected to see gusts in excess of 50 kts at times during the daytime hours Monday. The rest of the region will still be windy tomorrow, with sustained easterly winds of 15-25 kts expected with gusts to 35 kts. LLWS could be a concern, but most of the flow is unidirectional in the lowest layers so should be speed shear more than directional shear. Turbulence should also be expected as mountain wave activity is expected to develop in the vicinity of the Green Mountains. Outlook... Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Friday: MVFR. Chance SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY...
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As of 425 PM EDT Saturday...The Flood Watch for portions of northern New York and Vermont has been cancelled. Colder temperatures and less expected rainfall has resulted in less of a threat of widespread main stem river flooding. However, the combination of rainfall and snow melt will cause some rises on local streams and rivers, but no widespread flooding is anticipated. Some isolated and very minor low lying or poor drainage flooding is possible on Monday into Tuesday, but overall impacts will be minimal.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for VTZ001>012- 016>019. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday for VTZ002-005-009. High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday for VTZ011- 016>019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NYZ026>031- 034-035-087. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday for NYZ029>031. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...RSD HYDROLOGY...Taber

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