Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 181432 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1032 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will deliver a fairly quiet and cold start to the week. Still watching a coastal low that will develop midweek, but current indications are that this low will remain well to our south and be a non-factor for us in the North Country. Temperatures will be around 10 to 20 degrees F below normal, with the cold temperatures lasting through the week as we remain under predominantly northwesterly flow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1020 AM EDT Sunday...Quiet weather over the North Country this morning with the main forecast challenge being the cold temperatures and the degree of warming that will be achieved this afternoon. Updated the temperature grids to capture the rapid warmup this morning courtesy of the strong March sun. While we saw very cold overnight lows, temperatures have jumped 10 to 20 degrees over the last hour, and should continue to warm under mostly clear skies. The air mass overhead is still very cold however, and with 925 mb temps around -15C and a well mixed boundary layer this afternoon, temperatures will be capped in the low to mid 20s this afternoon. Previous discussion...Cold and dry weather will continue through the early part of the week with high pressure building over much of the Northeast CONUS. A couple of shortwaves will swing down across the region as they rotate around an upper low over Quebec, but given the very dry airmass in place, don`t expect much more than some scattered clouds. Winds will be a little breezy each afternoon, but no where near what we experienced on Saturday. Temperatures will remain cool, with highs in the upper teens to lower 20s today, and just a few degrees warmer on Monday. Tonight`s lows will generally be 0 to 10 above in the wider valleys while the mountains will drop into the -5 to +5 range.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 311 AM EDT Sunday...Continued cyclonic flow across area with another weak shortwave rotating to the international border before getting stretched out and lack of moisture as well. Basically, continued sunny but it still remains colder than normal with overnight lows ranging from -5 to +10 and highs in the 20s with light winds. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 311 AM EDT Sunday...No changes from previous discussion, thus attached previous discussion with a few edits as needed. Largely, uneventful with some slight indications of a slightly closer storm track for next system but still far enough for any problems at this time. Long term will continue to support mean mid/upper level trof across the eastern conus with undefined split flow between northern and southern streams. Latest guidance shows northern stream jet with northwest flow aloft prevails across the northern Great Lakes into the NE CONUS with no interaction with southern stream...which should keep the storm track to our south this upcoming week. This pattern supports much below normal temps and limited chances for precip...and is very similar to our pattern in early January, except now we are in mid/late March and temps will be warmer. Interesting GFS bukfit for BTV shows only 0.01 qpf through 12z Thursday...indicating how dry the northwest flow will be. Still have to watch southern stream energy ejecting toward the mid atlantic states and associated sfc low pres...but all guidance shows this system staying to our south attm...with no real northern stream interaction. However, Canadian suggests an inside 40N/70W benchmark for Thursday, thus with trends of closer and closer to area with last systems will need to keep a watchful eye. The upper level pattern and associated pieces of short wave energy becomes very complex and messy toward mid and late week, which results in plenty of uncertainty. The combination of departing low pres southeast of the BM and high pres anchored over Hudson Bay will help to provide region with a modifying arctic air thru late week. ECMWF and GEM are much more aggressive with deepening trof and associated low level caa for next weekend with another shot of reinforcing cold air possible...which seems reasonable given upper level pattern. Progged 850mb temps warm between -8c and -10c by midweek supporting highs back into the mid 20s to mid/upper 30s. Little change anticipated in 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles through most of the week and into early next weekend. Temps will slowly modify toward normal levels by Friday...before additional cooling possibly arrives next weekend or early the following week. Maple Sugaring weekends across NY/VT/NH next weekend and it looks like sunshine, above freezing daytime and sub-freezing nighttime temperatures will cooperate late this week and next weekend. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period with high pressure ushering in a much drier air mass. A few low clouds will be possible Sunday afternoon. Light northwesterly winds will persist through the forecast period, with periodic gusts to around 15 kt possible at KSLK. Outlook... Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: MVFR. Slight chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings/RSD NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Hastings is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.