Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231954 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 354 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front crossing the area may spark an isolated shower and/or thunderstorm this afternoon, otherwise high pressure will provide fair and seasonably warm temperatures tonight through Friday. More uncertainty arrives by the upcoming weekend as an increase in moisture and a cold front sinking southward from Canada may lead to a period or two of showers, especially Saturday and Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 242 PM EDT Wednesday...Well, as expected, a we`re on the tail end of a weak cold front dropping southeastward from southern Canada into northern New England. So far, we`re just seeing some diurnal cumulus forming along the boundary, with convection popping east of the region in central/northern Maine. Based on trends, seems as if the trough is just east enough that we shouldn`t see much more than an isolated shower across northeast Vermont this afternoon and evening. If any can get going, a few lightning strikes aren`t out of the question either with ample instability around. For tonight, any afternoon shower activity that does form will quickly dissipate with the loss of insolational heating, with a mainly clear and cool night on tap as high pressure builds into the region. Lows should be seasonably cool in the 40s, with a few spot 30s possible across the Adirondacks and far northeast Vermont. High pressure remains dominant for Thursday and Thursday night as well with PoPs nil. Temps will be slightly cooler than normal in the upper 60s to low 70s Thursday as we`re still on the western edge of the departing trough, but increasing southerly flow Thursday night will keep lows mild in the upper 40s to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...A warm and windy day is expected Friday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms across our Northern zones Friday afternoon and into the evening. Southerly flow will become westerly by mid day on Friday and temps will warm rapidly. The westerly warm air advection will bring 925mb temps of 18C to 21C over the region meaning low to mid 80s can be expected. Expect gusts during the morning and afternoon hours of between 25-30 mph. With the higher temps and decent mixing there`s some potential for showers to develop in the afternoon hours on Friday. Showalters turn negative across much of Northern Vermont and Northern New York during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 353 PM EDT Wednesday...Lots of uncertainty still with the weekend forecast, though the period looks active with several chances for rain showers. Models are still indicating a back door cold front dropping south across our region later in the day Saturday and bringing with it a chance for light rain showers. This front will stall out to our South Saturday night and into Sunday. There will be clouds across the region, and continued chance for light rain showers during the day Sunday. Models are leaning towards a solution where it`s wetter in Northern New York than in Vermont and this is reflected in my forecast with likely wording in NY and chance in VT. An upper level trough will swing through the region on Monday into Monday night bringing more chances for showers and possible thunder in Northern New York. Temperatures will be near normal during the weekend and heading into next week, generally low 70s for highs. Ridge of surface high pressure will build back into the region for Tue and Wed of next week. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Diurnal cumulus developing over the region this afternoon may produce a stray shower or isolated thunderstorm across northern Vermont, but will dissipate to mainly clear skies after sunset. Overnight, SKC to FEW250 is expected with light winds, with more fair weather clouds developing across the region tomorrow. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Memorial Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG/Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Lahiff

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