Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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129 FXUS61 KBTV 230737 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 337 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross the area today with little fanfare other than a few isolated showers or a stray storm across eastern counties. Otherwise high pressure will provide fair and seasonably warm temperatures through Friday. More uncertainty arrives by the upcoming weekend as an increase in moisture and a cold front sinking southward from Canada may lead to a period or two of showers, especially Saturday and Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 337 AM EDT Wednesday...After areas of patchy morning fog and low clouds burn off, a much better day is on tap for our area as skies trend partly sunny under drying northwesterly winds. A weak cold front will be dropping southward through the area by this afternoon, behind which those winds could gust into the 15 to 20 mph range in the 100-700 pm time frame. Some weak instability and meager moisture convergence could also spark an isolated shower or storm across mainly eastern and northeastern VT during this time period as the front passes, but a warm layer near 600 mb should inhibit any convective cells from attaining overly robust levels. High temperatures will respond nicely to the increase in overall sunshine, topping out in the lower to mid 70s north and mid to upper 70s south which agrees nicely with modelled 18-21Z 925 mb thermal profiles. Then trending mainly clear over time tonight as high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. I stuck close to a multi-model bias-corrected blend for low temperatures offering values in the lower and mid 40s in the broader valleys and from 35 to 40 across Green and Adirondack Mountain communities with some slight variability. Winds light. By Thursday the surface high builds atop and just east of our region by afternoon as light north/northwesterly flow trends south to southwesterly over time. High temperatures cool slightly (3-5 degrees) from today`s values, but all and all another outstanding day is on tap with nil pops under mostly sunny skies. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...Large ridge of surface high pressure will be over the region for Thursday and Thursday night. Dry weather with warmer than normal temperatures can be expected. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...More active weather will return for the upcoming weekend after one more dry day on Friday. Surface high pressure will slide eastward Friday, and warm southerly return flow will bump temps up into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Model guidance is still indicating that Saturday will be the wetter of the two weekend days, but can`t say that Sunday will be completely dry just yet. A cold front will drop south across our area on Saturday, widespread rain showers are expected, during the morning across our Northern zones and afternoon across our Southern zones. Then the front will stall out to our South just off the coast of New York and remain there into early next week. With this boundary to our South, it`s tough to rule out precipitation in the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe as this front may drift North or South during this time period. With clouds and precipitation, temperatures will trend cooler than seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...Scattered showers to end through 12Z, though widespread br/fg and accompanying low cigs ranging from LIFR to MVFR expected in this time frame. Winds light. After 12Z all terminals lift to VFR as winds veer to northwesterly in the 14-18Z time frame, trending occasionally gusty from 15-20 kt by afternoon as a weak cold front drops through the area. An isolated shower or storm will be possible across eastern and northern VT during this period, but paucity of coverage warrants omission from the forecast at this point. After 00Z VFR continues as northwesterly flow abates to light. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...JMG

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