Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 270131 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 931 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mild air streaming northwards ahead of a slow moving cold front will maintain above normal temperatures through at least Wednesday, but the more comfortable conditions will be accompanied by the potential for some showers. Fair dry weather with more seasonable conditions can be expected for Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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The majority of the light to moderate showers that were across western NY now lifting north over western Lake Ontario as the better forcing moves north of the area. Meanwhile, just mainly overcast skies for the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario regions with a widely scattered light shower possible through late evening/early overnight. Elevated south to south-southeasterly downslope winds continue from the Chautauqua Ridge to the Lake Erie shore with some gusts still in the 30-40 mph, which will likely continue through the late evening/early overnight hours before starting to weaken. Otherwise, the pre-frontal trough will pass through the region tonight keeping the chance for a few scattered showers in across areas south of Lake Ontario, with the best shower chances toward the North Country/Saint Lawrence Valley later tonight. It will be a mild night with overnight lows in the 40s. The bulk of the mid level moisture will be stripped away in the wake of the pre-frontal trough by Wednesday morning, so when the actual cold front moves through the region, there will be little moisture to act upon. This will greatly limit the extent of the shower activity, particularly over the western counties. Otherwise, it will remain on the mild side Wednesday with max temps in the lower 50s in the far west and in the lower 60s from the Finger Lakes and interior Southern Tier to the Eastern Lake Ontario region. High pressure over the Ohio Valley will nose northeastward Wednesday night, providing fair dry weather.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... While a deep longwave tough will pass over the Great Lakes during this period...sfc based high pressure centered over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys will extend across our region to GUARANTEE fair dry weather. Meanwhile...temperatures will average within a degree or so of normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Deterministic guidance (12Z ECMWF and GFS) still at odds(timing) to when a weak shortwave moving through the zonal flow aloft will impact the eastern Great Lakes Saturday and/or Saturday night. Have kept chance Pops for most locales, with the greatest potential for showers over SW NYS. High pressure builds in Sunday, which will bring fair dry weather through Monday. The next system to impact western and central New York still looks on track for late Monday night and Tuesday. Low pressure over the plains will push a warm front towards our region, possibly bringing a soaking rain or rain/snow showers. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Mainly VFR weather will persist across the region through late this evening, although some MVFR CIGS may be found across the Southern Tier as low level moisture increases ahead of a pre-frontal trough approaching from the west. Back edge of steadier light showers now pulling north across western Lake Ontario, while mainly dry conditions will persist across the remainder of the region. Overnight, a few scattered light showers are possible as the pre-frontal trough crosses the region with gradually deteriorating flight conditions. Expect mainly low VFR/MVFR CIGS to develop through the overnight, with IFR CIGS across the higher terrain. A cold front will slowly cross the region on Wednesday with mainly MVFR CIGS expected through the bulk of the day, with gradual improvement toward low VFR CIGS late in the 00Z TAF cycle. For the higher terrain, IFR CIGS will gradually improve to MVFR CIGS. A few scattered showers are possible along and ahead of the cold front. Outlook... Thursday and Friday...VFR. Saturday...VFR, but with showers possible far west late. Sunday...Mainly VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Fresh southeasterly breezes will continue into late this evening on Lake Erie for which a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through the early overnight hours. Otherwise, expect mainly gentle to moderate southeasterly offshore breezes on Lake Ontario through tonight, although a fresh offshore breeze may impact eastern portions of Lake Ontario late this evening and overnight. A cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes on Wednesday with low level flow veering southwest behind the boundary, then becoming westerly by Thursday. Winds will remain elevated with gentle to moderate breezes producing light to moderate chop on both Lakes, but are expected to remain below Small Craft thresholds. Better chances for Small Craft Advisory conditions will come toward the end of the work week as the pressure gradient tightens owed to a strengthening area of low pressure moving up the Atlantic Coast.
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&& .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...JM/RSH SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM

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