Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 270131
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
931 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Mild air streaming northwards ahead of a slow moving cold front will
maintain above normal temperatures through at least Wednesday, but
the more comfortable conditions will be accompanied by the potential
for some showers. Fair dry weather with more seasonable conditions
can be expected for Thursday and Friday.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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The majority of the light to moderate showers that were across western
NY now lifting north over western Lake Ontario as the better forcing
moves north of the area. Meanwhile, just mainly overcast skies for
the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario regions
with a widely scattered light shower possible through late
evening/early overnight. Elevated south to south-southeasterly
downslope winds continue from the Chautauqua Ridge to the Lake Erie
shore with some gusts still in the 30-40 mph, which will likely
continue through the late evening/early overnight hours before
starting to weaken.
Otherwise, the pre-frontal trough will pass through the region
tonight keeping the chance for a few scattered showers in across
areas south of Lake Ontario, with the best shower chances toward the
North Country/Saint Lawrence Valley later tonight. It will be a mild
night with overnight lows in the 40s.
The bulk of the mid level moisture will be stripped away in the wake
of the pre-frontal trough by Wednesday morning, so when the actual
cold front moves through the region, there will be little moisture
to act upon. This will greatly limit the extent of the shower
activity, particularly over the western counties. Otherwise, it will
remain on the mild side Wednesday with max temps in the lower 50s in
the far west and in the lower 60s from the Finger Lakes and interior
Southern Tier to the Eastern Lake Ontario region.
High pressure over the Ohio Valley will nose northeastward Wednesday
night, providing fair dry weather.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
While a deep longwave tough will pass over the Great Lakes during
this period...sfc based high pressure centered over the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys will extend across our region to GUARANTEE fair
dry weather. Meanwhile...temperatures will average within a degree
or so of normal.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Deterministic guidance (12Z ECMWF and GFS) still at odds(timing) to
when a weak shortwave moving through the zonal flow aloft will
impact the eastern Great Lakes Saturday and/or Saturday night. Have
kept chance Pops for most locales, with the greatest potential for
showers over SW NYS.
High pressure builds in Sunday, which will bring fair dry weather
through Monday. The next system to impact western and central New
York still looks on track for late Monday night and Tuesday. Low
pressure over the plains will push a warm front towards our region,
possibly bringing a soaking rain or rain/snow showers.
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.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Mainly VFR weather will persist across the region through late this
evening, although some MVFR CIGS may be found across the Southern
Tier as low level moisture increases ahead of a pre-frontal trough
approaching from the west. Back edge of steadier light showers now
pulling north across western Lake Ontario, while mainly dry
conditions will persist across the remainder of the region.
Overnight, a few scattered light showers are possible as the
pre-frontal trough crosses the region with gradually
deteriorating flight conditions. Expect mainly low VFR/MVFR CIGS
to develop through the overnight, with IFR CIGS across the
higher terrain.
A cold front will slowly cross the region on Wednesday with mainly
MVFR CIGS expected through the bulk of the day, with gradual
improvement toward low VFR CIGS late in the 00Z TAF cycle. For the
higher terrain, IFR CIGS will gradually improve to MVFR CIGS. A few
scattered showers are possible along and ahead of the cold front.
Outlook...
Thursday and Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR, but with showers possible far west late.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Fresh southeasterly breezes will continue into late this evening on
Lake Erie for which a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through
the early overnight hours. Otherwise, expect mainly gentle to
moderate southeasterly offshore breezes on Lake Ontario through
tonight, although a fresh offshore breeze may impact eastern
portions of Lake Ontario late this evening and overnight.
A cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes on Wednesday with low
level flow veering southwest behind the boundary, then becoming
westerly by Thursday. Winds will remain elevated with gentle to
moderate breezes producing light to moderate chop on both Lakes, but
are expected to remain below Small Craft thresholds. Better chances
for Small Craft Advisory conditions will come toward the end of the
work week as the pressure gradient tightens owed to a strengthening
area of low pressure moving up the Atlantic Coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM