187
FXUS61 KBUF 292128
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
528 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross Lower Michigan tonight before slowly making
its way across our forecast area on Tuesday. This will end our
period of fair weather...as showers will become increasingly common
along with the risk for a few thunderstorms. Dry weather associated
with weak high pressure will return for Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Large temperature contrast continues across the forecast area late
this afternoon with mid 50s Saint Lawrence Valley to near 80 toward
the NY/PA line. This is all owed to a stalled frontal boundary
currently draped across the region. Meanwhile, a stiff and chilly
east-northeast breeze is keeping areas along the southern Lake
Ontario shoreline in the 40s

As for the dynamics supporting the above, a strong mid level ridge
remains centered over the region through this evening. This has
suppressed any convection across the western counties that would
have normally formed with a stalled surface frontal boundary over
the Southern Tier and upper Genesee Valley within a diurnally
destabilized airmass. Thus, have a dry forecast through at least the
early evening hours before cold front starts to approach from the
northwest tonight.

Tonight...a negatively tilted mid level trough over the Upper Great
Lakes will shove its associated cold front across Lower Michigan and
southern Ontario. This in turn will help to ease the aforementioned
stalled frontal boundary back towards Lake Ontario. The lift
generated from this feature will keep showers in play east of Lake
Ontario...and after midnight we will also have to start watching to
our northwest where showers and storms associated with the
approaching cold front will be targeting our region.

On Tuesday...a wavy cold front will slowly work across our forecast
area. This will nearly GUARANTEE that Tuesday will be quite
unsettled with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Basin
average QPF should not exceed a quarter inch...although localized
amounts of up to a half inch will be possible in any stronger
convection. Despite the wealth of cloud cover and expected pcpn...
Tuesday will remain mild and relatively humid.

The showers will taper off from west to east late Tuesday and
Tuesday evening...as the cold front will exit via New England. While
the showers will move east overnight...clouds will be slow to clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will quickly track through the Lower Lakes with little
fan fair (lack of moisture) Wednesday with dry weather and mild
conditions. Highs will range from the 60s east of Lake Ontario to
low/mid 70s elsewhere. A weak cold front passes through Wednesday
night but again lacks any support or moisture, so dry conditions
will likely continue. This same front then returns north on Thursday
but will likely not bring any showers to the region. Weak high
pressure will be in place Thursday night which will maintain dry
conditions through the end of this period. Temperatures will remain
above normal Thursday with highs mainly in the 70s, cooler near the
lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid-level ridge will move across the eastern Great Lakes region
Friday. Plenty of moisture and warm air advection will move into the
forecast area through Friday night. There is a low to medium chance
for showers with the greatest chance during the afternoon hours on
Friday. Model packages show the potential for two cold fronts to
move across the region this weekend. Confidence is low on the timing
of these cold fronts and therefore there are low to medium chances
for showers Saturday through Sunday night. Temperatures will remain
above normal Friday through the start of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions will be in place through the first half of
tonight. Although, there may be some isolated MVFR/IFR CIGS along a
relatively small zone extending from over Lake Ontario into areas
southeast of Lake Ontario associated with a stalled frontal boundary
during this time. Location of this boundary should keep these
impacts away from our 5 main TAF sites through the first half of
tonight.

Otherwise, as we work through the overnight...a cold front will
approach from Lower Michigan. CIGS will drop to IFR levels in
advance of the front after 08Z with showers becoming likely near and
east of both Lakes.

On Tuesday...a slow moving cold front will cross the forecast area.
This will result in fairly widespread showers and possibly
thunderstorms with CIGS generally at IFR levels.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Showers ending with MVFR to IFR cigs
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh east to northeast winds have resulted in choppy conditions as
expected along the central and western south shores of Lake Ontario
where Small Craft headlines remain in place through this evening.
Winds will diminish tonight.

Otherwise no significant winds or waves are expected throughout
the week...with just periodic showers or thunderstorms a few
days.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...Apffel/JM/Thomas