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593
FXUS61 KBUF 091814
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
214 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A wavy...nearly stationary frontal boundary to our south will lead
to thickening clouds over our region with some rain into Friday
night. The greatest chance for wet weather will be across the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region where a half to one inch of
rain could fall. Cool and unsettled weather will generally remain in
place for much of the upcoming weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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It will become unsettled tonight...as sfc waves moving along a
pseudo-stationary frontal boundary stretching from the Ohio valley
to the Mid Atlantic region will help moisture to surge northwards
across much of the area. Relatively deep lift to the north of the
passing waves will encourage showers and areas of steadier rain to
impact the region...MAINLY over the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.
Areas that could make it through the night rainfree will be across
the IAG Frontier and sites north of the Tug.

The area of steadier...more widespread rain will expand across the
region during the day Friday when additional shortwave energy will
support deeper organization to the last in the series of sfc waves
along the aforementioned front. Have thus further raised pops across
all of the forecast area...now ranging from chc across IAG county to
likely MOST elsewhere and to near 100 across parts of the Srn Tier
and Finger Lakes region.

A weak shortwave ridge will scoot across the forecast area Friday
night...accompanied by significant mid level drying. This will allow
the showers and areas of steadier rain to taper off from west to
east...although some spotty showers should persist east of Lake
Ontario.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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The next mid level trough will move overhead Saturday and
solidify troughing across the Lower Great Lakes region and
Northeast through the rest of the weekend. A weak area of low
pressure will track southwest of the region. The combination of
moisture and an upper level trough overhead will result in low
chances for showers Saturday morning. Peak heating and the
potential for some clearing will result in increasing chances
for showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Coverage
of showers will decrease Saturday night with mostly dry weather
across the forecast area.

Cooler weather is likely Friday through Saturday night with high
temperatures below normal for mid-May.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An amplified upper level trough will move across the Northeast
Sunday. It will move slow enough that showers will be possible
across the forecast area. There should be a brief period of ridging
before the next amplified upper level trough moves across the Great
Lakes region and Northeast into mid-week. An associated cold front
will likely approach the region with the chance for showers
increasing from northwest to southeast late Monday into Monday
night. The cold front may not move through the region until Tuesday
night into Wednesday resulting in a prolonged period of favorable
conditions for showers and possible thunderstorms through Wednesday.

High temperatures will steadily increase Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions will be in place through most of tonight...although
some light rain will advance across the Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes region with cigs lowering to MVFR levels towards daybreak.

On Friday...areas of rain and MVFR cigs will expand across all of
western New York with pockets of IFR conditions across the higher
terrain of the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes region. Mainly VFR
conditions will persist east of lake Ontario.

Outlook...

Friday night...MVFR conditons with rain ending from west to east.
Saturday...VFr cigs deteriorating to MVFR with increasing likelihood
for showers.
Sunday...VFR to MVFR cigs in scattered showers.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
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&&

.MARINE...
A northeasterly flow will strengthen some today and tonight. This
will result in choppy conditions along the south shores of both
Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...JM/TMA