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534
FXUS62 KCAE 100111
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
911 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area tonight and pass through on
Friday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. High
pressure will move in for the weekend. The high will move
offshore Monday and increasing moisture will support showers and
thunderstorms returning for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Convection has moved well south of the area with clouds rapidly
clearing from west to east. To the west cirrus debris clouds
continue moving toward the area however expect most of these to
remain over the southern half of the forecast area and continue
to thin as they move toward the forecast area. With plenty of
low level moisture the main concern for the overnight shifts to
development of stratus and fog. With some wind along with a weak
low level jet and some clouds drifting over the area expect some
patchy fog and stratus to develop during the early morning
hours. As fog and stratus would typically be thickening and
lowering around sunrise additional clouds ahead of the next line
of convection will be entering the area along with increasing
surface winds. This should begin mixing the fog and stratus out
just prior to the morning commute. Overnight lows will be in the
mid 60s for most locations.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday...Thunderstorms will be approaching the Savannah River
around dawn and should move through the remainder of the CWA
from west to east during the morning hours, exiting the eastern
area around noon. The threat for severe weather is lower with
less available instability expected Friday morning. During the
afternoon, the cold front will move through. This could bring
another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Temperatures will remain near normal.

Friday night...There may be a few lingering showers and
thunderstorms in the far east for a few hours in the evening,
but then drier and cooler air will move in for the remainder of
Friday night as the cold front moves offshore and high pressure
builds in behind the front. Temperatures will be about 10
degrees cooler.

Saturday and Saturday night...Mostly clear skies will prevail
under high pressure with temps running just a little below
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday will be another dry day, with light winds and temps
warming up again close to normal.

Monday...high pressure will move offshore, bringing low level
southerly and mid level southwesterly flow. This will increase
temps a bit, but also increase moisture in the form of clouds
and maybe some late day showers.

Tuesday...An upper low will be moving through the Ohio Valley on
Tuesday, with an upper trof trailing to the south. This will
trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms over the area,
especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Temps will be a
little below normal due to the significant cloud cover and
occasional rain.

Wednesday and Thursday...Additional scattered afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms are expected as more weak
disturbances move by in the southwesterly flow aloft. Timing of
these is traditionally difficult this far out, so details will
be changeable as we get into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions giving way to restrictions during the early
morning hours.

Showers have moved well away from the area with some high level
debris cloudiness remaining. With near surface levels nearly
saturated from recent rains expect some stratus and fog to
develop during the early morning hours at all terminals. Around
sunrise the next line of convection will be approaching from the
west and begin disrupting the fog and stratus. As such have
remained with MVFR fog and added some SCT stratus around 700
feet. Majority of convection is expected to remain south of
AGS/DNL so have not included VCSH attm and will continue to
monitor.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are
possible Monday and Tuesday along with associated restrictions.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$