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726
FXUS62 KCAE 120618
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
218 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure keeps the area dry through the weekend and into
the beginning of next week. The high then moves offshore Monday
and increasing moisture supports an unsettled week with chances
for showers and thunderstorms for much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Weak frontal boundary shifting southeastward through the
forecast area this morning and will push off the coast by this
afternoon. A relatively dry air mass is expected today with
PWATs around 0.6-0.7 inches and dewpoints mixing back down into
the 40s. Other than some passing cirrus clouds and a few cumulus
during peak heating skies should be mostly clear and with a weak
downsloping northwesterly flow, expect high temperatures to be
warmer than Saturday with highs in the lower 80s.
High pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas
tonight should yield favorable radiational cooling conditions
but increasing clouds in the form of high and mid level clouds
through the night ahead of the next upper trough to our west
will prevent ideal radiational cooling. Overnight lows expected
to be a bit warmer in the mid to upper 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Monday, an upper low pressure system over the Four Corners
region will eject and push across the CONUS. This will lead to
increasing southwesterly flow with strong moisture transport in
the upper and mid levels as PWATs increase through the day. This
will lead to increasing clouds, first over the CSRA and then
into the rest of the forecast area. As a result, expect cooler
highs in the CSRA, in the mid-70s and low 80s, in the eastern
portion of the area. Forecast soundings do indicate a layer of
near surface dry air and so while isentropic lift is expected to
increase towards the end of the day on Monday, any
precipitation should be light. With isentropic lift increasing
overnight Monday, rain chances will continue to increase.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ensemble suites show high probability (around 80 percent) that by
Tuesday PWATs will increase to above an inch and a half. With a
fairly robust shortwave moving through the area, expect widespread
showers, although there is some question as to the exact evolution
as models are indicating some drier air behind this shortwave and
uncertainty to its timing as it will result from the ejection
from the previously mentioned upper low. As far as an ingredient
perspective, there remains at least some concern of the
potential for severe weather, especially across the southern
area where there is higher potential for destabilization but the
overall shear profile would support organized storms. As we
start to approach the timing for convective allowing models,
there is also the potential for an upstream MCS to develop in
the Deep South and move east, riding along the highest
instability near the Gulf Coast, which may miss us to the south.
While some drier air likely moves in Wednesday, ensemble means
indicate moisture remains high enough to support scattered
showers and storms, especially in the Pee Dee. Brief ridging
expected to build back in briefly Thursday before another
moisture surge expected Friday with LREF probability showing
highest probability of destabilization in the CSRA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Weak front pushing through the area this morning as high
pressure builds over the area through tonight. Near calm winds
will pick up from the northwest through the day before going
light and variable to calm tonight. Mostly clear skies expected
through today with some increasing higher and mid clouds
overnight. Fog/stratus not a concern given dry air mass.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions are possible late Monday through
Wednesday.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$