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497
FXUS62 KCAE 051832
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
232 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through the early
this week as multiple disturbances move across the region. A
lull in activity is anticipated for midweek, with increasing
chances of showers and storms towards the end of the week.
Expect generally above average temperatures through the latter
half of the week before transitioning to near or slightly below
average next weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Showers and thunderstorms had moved out of the area this morning
however with diurnal heating convection has once again begun
developing. WV satellite imagery and ATL upper air sounding from
this morning show some dry air in the mid and upper levels which
is beginning to erode as convective currents mix copious amounts
of low level moisture. Embedded in the flow this afternoon is a
minor short which is currently crossing the central portion of
the forecast area and helping to generate a few showers in the
northern and eastern Midlands. Tops of the convection remains
limited attm and with the drier air aloft expect development to
be somewhat limited through the remainder of the afternoon. With
sunset much of the convection will diminish. High temperatures
will top out in the low to mid 80s.

Tonight will be a continuation of the active pattern as there
will be upper level ridging over the area however minor short
waves will continue rotating through the pattern. A few cells
are possible overnight with the main potential coming toward
daybreak in the western Midlands and northern CSRA as the next
short wave rotates toward the area from GA. Even though chances
of showers and thunderstorms will be low overnight expect plenty
of clouds as the plentiful low level moisture becomes trapped
under and inversion with stratus developing during the early
morning and sunrise hours along with some patchy fog. Overnight
lows will be in the mid 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Tennessee
Valley into the Southeast through the day, bringing another
round of shower and thunderstorm activity to the area. This
shortwave looks be a bit deeper than the one passing on Sunday,
which will likely result in more areal coverage of thunderstorms
than Sunday afternoon. Moisture remains on the high side as the
airmass overhead hasn`t really changed all that much over the
past couple of days. PWATs of over 1.5` are expected throughout
the day with an uptick ahead of the incoming shortwave. Forecast
soundings indicate that much of the atmospheric column will be
well saturated, which would lead to the potential for locally
heavy rain and potential for urban flooding with the activity.
While CAPE values are forecast to be around 1000 J/kg or so, a
lack of shear limits the severe weather potential. Temperatures
are expected to be near or slightly above average during the day
and relatively warm overnight.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Shortwave ridging aloft on Tuesday helps to limit shower
activity for the day; however, a weak shortwave trough is
forecast to pass over the area. This could bring some isolated
shower or thunderstorm activity in the afternoon, mainly for the
eastern portions of the forecast area. The ridging then
continues through midweek, allowing for a warming trend and a
brief respite in activity ahead of the next incoming trough and
associated front. Depending on the timing of the upper trough
and cold front moving toward the area, some stronger storms
could be possible for Thursday afternoon as increased moisture,
instability, and shear may be in place. The chances of
precipitation continues for Friday as well before drying out for
the weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions through much of the period with restrictions
possible in afternoon/evening convection and early morning
stratus and patchy fog.

Scattered showers currently developing across the area with a
few in the AGS/DNL/OGB area. Have included TEMPO for AGS/DNl/OGB
for the next couple hours for convection. This evening
convection will diminish however with plentiful low level
moisture in place and a developing inversion the potential for
early morning and sunrise stratus becomes likely. Fog potential
remains low as a 20-25 knots low level jet will be over the
area. Have included SCT stratus with bases around 700 feet and
will adjust as confidence in timing and height increase.
Convection will again be possible near the end of the period.
winds through the period will be south southwesterly at 7 knots
or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Fog and stratus likely again early
Monday. Fog and stratus restrictions become less likely on
Tuesday and Wednesday as drier air moves into the region.
Chances of mainly afternoon and evening convection with
associated restrictions each day.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$