Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 181856
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
256 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control of the region through tonight
with mostly clear skies and windy conditions. A dry cold front
will move through Thursday morning bringing cooler air and gusty
winds. Next rain chance will be late Sunday as a low pressure
system approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lake wind advisory in effect this afternoon through 00z Friday.
Recent Lake Murray RC winds mesonet sensor reports around 15
kts with higher gusts above 25 kts. Winds will drop off a little
later tonight before picking up again by mid morning with
frontal passage. Decided to not break up advisory periods as
wind still a factor overnight. A dry cold front will approach
from the northwest overnight with passage expected mid to late
morning northwest and early to mid afternoon southeast. Goes 16
Channel 2 visible imagery shows mainly clear skies across the
forecast area. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the mid
80s with winds remaining strong and gusty tonight ahead of a
cold front. Expect partly cloudy skies as moisture is limited
with frontal passage. With the scattered clouds and winds
overnight keeping the low levels mixed, lows will be around
60-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday, a dry cold front will move into the forecast area
early, exiting the area by the afternoon. High pressure will
build back in behind the front keeping the pressure gradient
tight resulting in continued gusty winds. Westerly winds in the
morning will become northerly through the afternoon ushering in
cooler and drier air. Expect wind speeds from 15 to 20 mph with
gusts to 30 mph possible. A lake wind advisory remains in
effect through 7 PM Thursday. Highs will be around 70 degrees to
the west and mid to upper 70s to the east.

Friday, high pressure will ridge into the area from the NW.
Lighter winds early Friday morning and low dewpoints will allow
temperatures to drop into the 30s in wind-sheltered locations.
However temperatures are expected to remain above freezing.
Despite clear skies, northerly winds and cold advection will
keep highs below normal, around 70 degrees. Overnight lows will
be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the eastern US through Saturday
night preventing precipitation and keeping winds light and out
of the east. A low pressure system will move across the Gulf
Coast late this weekend and then up the East Coast early next
week. High pressure to our north and moist, SE low-level flow
should provide decent isentropic lift over the forecast area as
the low moves eastward. However timing differences between
models limits confidence in high PoPs at any given time. The
best chance for rain will be Monday morning through Monday
night. Temperatures will generally be near or below normal
during the period with upper level troughing over the region and
surface low pressure crossing to our south.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR through most of tonight. Nearly stationary front to our
north will lift north today as an area of low pressure moves
east from the Central Plains into the Midwest. Pressure gradient
between these features to our north, and high pressure to our
south, to result in night/early morning LLWS and breezy
conditions during the day. Frontal boundary to move through
early Thursday with brief period of MVFR CIGs possible along
and ahead of it late tonight into thursday morning.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR and breezy conditions expected to continue through
Thursday. The wind will shift from SW to NW behind the front.
Dry air should preclude restrictions Fri/Sat. Increasing
moisture and chance of precipitation possible by late Sunday
into early next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...87
NEAR TERM...87
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...87


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