000
FXUS62 KCAE 182346
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
746 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm, sunny, and dry day continues for this afternoon.
Moisture then increases for Friday and Saturday as a cold front
moves into the area. With strong heating, diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. The front
becomes stationary near or slightly south of the area Sunday.
Deep moisture and lift across the area will result in numerous
showers Sunday through early Monday. Temperatures Sunday and
Monday are expected to be well below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Upper ridge slides eastward, flattening some as it does
overnight due to an upper trough swinging through the Great
Lakes into the Northeast. An associated surface cold front
begins to approach the area as well overnight, which brings
increased moisture, cloud cover, and a slight chance of rain to
the upper CSRA late tonight into early Friday morning. With the
cloud cover in place, overnight lows are expected to remain mild
in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A few showers may be occurring or moving into the western
forecast area early in the morning as some shortwave energy
moves into the region. Most guidance does indicate this batch of
morning showers weakening and dissipating through the morning,
so there may be a dry period through portions of the late
morning into the early afternoon. Additional
showers/thunderstorms may develop during the late afternoon
ahead of a cold front moving southward into the northern
Midlands/Pee Dee. There will be a moderate amount of instability
and shear. Only expecting scattered coverage, but some of the
storms that can develop could be strong to severe. Area remains
in a Marginal Risk of severe from SPC, with our main threats
being winds and hail. Activity should diminish towards Midnight,
with the remainder of Friday night being dry. Temperatures will
continue to be rather warm (10+ degrees above normal) again
Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, with a few areas
pushing 90. Overnight lows Friday night drop into the low to mid
60s.

The front will be slowly moving southward on Saturday, with
another chance of seeing afternoon showers and storms develop
along the front, mainly during the afternoon. Not as much
instability to work with, and confidence in overall coverage is
not high. Model soundings do show a warm nose developing aloft
during the morning, which will inhibit any initialization.
Questions exist as to how much this will erode during the
afternoon/evening, so this may end up being more of a
conditional threat for any thunderstorms. Chances for showers
and even an isolated storm continue overnight. Temperatures
could be rather varied across the cwa with the front moving
through. Northern counties may only reach to around 80, with the
southern cwa will be in the upper 80s. Cooler air continues to
push into the area overnight behind the front. Lows should drop
into the 50s for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Better rain chances are expected on Sunday as an area of low
pressure moves along the front to our south.  Do expect some
Atlantic moisture to move inland over the front through the day.
Showers should be more widespread through the day, and a weak
wedge  at the surface may be able to develop. This will bring
our temperatures down rather significantly from what the area
has seen the past few days. Highs on Sunday only expected to
reach the mid 60s north, to the lower 70s south. Rain chances
will linger into early Monday morning, then drier air will make
its way back into the region for a good portion of the day
Monday, lasting into Wednesday. Temperatures remain below normal
Monday and Tuesday, then climb back above normal by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Satellite imagery shows cirrus clouds beginning to move over the
region as winds remain light and variable. Main change for the
period begins around daybreak as moisture moves into the area
along with low potential for showers. Have remained with clouds
around 4 kft and no mention of showers through the end of the
period as the chance remains around 15% or lower. Winds with
daybreak will become westerly at 6 to 8 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing confidence in
restrictions Sunday into Monday with possible developing wedge
conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$