235
FXUS62 KCAE 041700
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
100 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms have moved into the area and will
continue through early next week with showers and thunderstorms
likely. Dry conditions should prevail for mid- week, with a
return of showers and storms possible again by Friday. Expect
well above normal temperatures each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed this morning
across the western Midlands and CSRA with another area
currently developing in the eastern Midlands. This is in
response to the short wave moving through the region with
another short wave moving through the area later today and
tonight. Although there is ample instability for thunderstorms
the cloud cover is limiting heating keeping much of the
convection limited in vertical development and thus more showers
than thunderstorms. Rainfall efficiency has been impressive so
far with rates between 2 and 2.5 inches per hour and with pwat
values ranging from 1.5 to 1.8 inches through tonight expect
this to continue. Will be monitoring several areas across the
CSRA and western Midlands as up to 2.5 inches of rainfall has
already fallen. Will also be monitoring the developing
thunderstorms and rainfall rates in the eastern Midlands for any
hydro related issues. High temperatures this afternoon will
range from the mid 70s in the western Midlands and CSRA to the
upper 70s to around 80 in the eastern Midlands. Low temperatures
tonight will be in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure off shore will keep low-level moisture across the
area Sunday and Sunday night. Weak upper shortwave will move
through the area, and even with limited instability, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through the
day. Daytime temperatures will be near normal, with highs in
the lower 80s, while overnight lows will be in the middle 60s,
which is well above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday into Tuesday will see upper trough passing through the
area, with upper ridging then moving in Wednesday into
Thursday. A deepening upper trough will then push southward into
the region Friday. This pattern generally will bring a period
of showers and thunderstorm early in the week, with dry weather
then expected during the mid-week timeframe. By Friday, showers
and thunderstorms will re-enter the region ahead of the
approaching trough. Temperatures are also expected to gradually
increase from just above normal on Monday, to well above normal
through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Variable conditions in showers and thunderstorms with restrictions
likely for much of the TAF period.

Showers and a few thunderstorms have mainly been west of the
terminals this morning and are now developing across the entire
area. Have update the TAFs to include the developing convective
activity through the evening hours. Cigs with the showers and
thunderstorms will lower to 1 to 1.5 kft with vsbys lowering to
1 to 2SM as showers have been efficient rain producers with
rainfall rates around 2 inches per hour. Convection will
diminish early tonight however with high amounts of low level
moisture expect stratus and fog to continue through the end of
the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Fog and stratus possible through at least Monday with abundant
low level moisture in place. Showers and thunderstorms with
associated restrictions possible Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$