-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
885
FXUS62 KCAE 150543
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
143 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight and again on
Wednesday. A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe both
days. Upper ridging will provide a brief break in the unsettled
conditions on Thursday. Shower and thunderstorms return late
this week and into the weekend. Temperatures are expected to
gradually rise through the next seven days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
An upper level trough will work into the eastern US in the near
term. Drier air aloft will push into the area from the west,
however the low levels will remain warm and moist with a warm
front to our north. This will lead to weak, elevated instability
into the overnight. The RAP shows a weak shortwave rounding the
base of the trough and working into the forecast area this
evening. This will promote isolated to scattered showers and
possibly thunderstorms. CAMs have been consistent showing the
greatest shower activity moving from central GA into the CSRA
and Midlands after midnight. Showers may linger into the early
morning given how moisture rich the low-levels are across the
area. Low clouds should again develop tonight, holding temps
into the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday and Wednesday Night: Day should be starting off cloud
but dry. Stratus should lift and scatter some through the
morning into the afternoon, then as a shortwave energy
associated with the primary upper low/cold pool moves out of
the mountains during the afternoon, there should be enough
heating and instability to create some scattered showers and
thunderstorms over mainly the northern half of the cwa.
Instability may be enough as the cold pool aloft moves through
to help bring a few stronger storms during the afternoon hours.
SPC has the area in a marginal risk of severe weather on
Wednesday due to this. Main threat would be associated with
damaging winds, with a minor hail threat. Showers and storms
will linger into the early evening, then dissipate and/or move
east along with the main upper energy. Afternoon highs are
expected to reach back up into the low to mid 80s with the
expected return of some sunshine. Overnight lows dropping down
to the low to mid 60s.

Thursday and Thursday Night: A return to dry weather as a brief
period of upper ridging moves towards the region from the west.
Ahead of this ridge, less cloud cover is expected due to a
downslope flow pattern, bringing a good amount of sunshine
through the day. This will help afternoon temperatures continue
to edge slightly warmer than Wednesday into the mid to possibly
upper 80s. Upper ridge axis will begin moving east of the cwa
late Thursday night, and do expect to see an increase in cloud
cover towards Friday morning. Overnight lows in the low to mid
60s continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Friday will see the eventual approach of another upper low
moving out of the southern plains. This will be a slow moving
low that may take all weekend to finally move through the
region, although there is some uncertainty to the speed of the
low between the models. Friday should start off dry, then
increasing moisture will be a return of isolated to scattered
afternoon showers/storms. Rain chances continue and increase
through the weekend. A return of ridging will be possible early
next week, which would bring the possibility of drier weather
back to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions generally expected through the forecast period
outside of some early morning fog/stratus.

Some lingering convection moving through the upper CSRA has been
weakening with the loss of heating but could impact the CAE/CUB
terminals during the 07z-10z time frame if it holds together.
Some fog has developed at CUB early but thicker clouds moving in
by 07z should support vsbys coming back up to VFR. Otherwise,
expect remaining convection to wane through the predawn hours
and have little impact on other terminals with possible stratus
development sinking south from NC with higher confidence it will
impact CAE/CUB and lower confidence at the other terminals.
Light southerly winds through sunrise then winds pick up to
around 10 knots by 15z from the southwest with gusts to 20 knots
through the afternoon. Isolated afternoon convection possible as
the upper trough moves through the region but coverage not high
enough to include in this forecast.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions are possible again Friday and Saturday.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$