962
FXUS61 KCAR 170705
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
305 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Increased snowfall totals across Northern Maine for Sunday
  night into Monday.

- Lowered temperatures slightly for Monday AM across interior
  Downeast Maine to Downeast shoreline. Then additionally
  lowered temps across far Northern Maine and North Woods to
  follow trends in model guidance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areawide rain Sunday changes to snow Sunday night into
Monday morning across Northern Maine leading to the potential of
slick Monday AM commute.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Areawide rain Sunday changes to snow Sunday
night into Monday morning across Northern Maine leading to the
potential of slick Monday AM commute.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
During the day Sunday a potent parent storm system will lift
north out of the Great Lakes into Ontario then Quebec dragging
an occluded front into New England. A strong 500mb shortwave
will dig south dragging significantly colder air in its wake
with large scale upper level divergence overhead leading to
surface convergence. As the front pushes towards Maine during
the morning hours rain will develop across the area Sunday AM
and last throughout the day. Expecting generally 0.5-0.75 inch
of rain during the day Sunday into early Sunday evening but
cannot rule out higher amounts up to 1 inch. This will allow for
continued slow rise of area rivers/streams but flooding is not
expected. Across Northern Maine with frozen soils cannot rule
out water getting into basements.

Sunday night significant agreement in global model guidance of a
weak surface low developing on a triple point across the Gulf
of Maine waters near the Maine coast. As this happens and the
occluded front slides through expecting Sunday night a
significant surge of colder air with a moist DGZ. As the
boundary layer cools to near freezing precipitation will change
from rain to snow across Northern Maine especially in the North
Woods to St. John Valley first then eventually reaching as far
south as Moosehead Region, Baxter SP region and Southern
Aroostook County. The uncertainty lies in how much
precipitation will be available behind FROPA and how quick the
cold air works into the region. GFS is slower on the cold air
while ECMWF/Canadian is much faster but the GFS has more QPF
available with the ECMWF/Canadian with less. Expecting a dusting
up to potential 1-2 inches across Northern Maine. The heaviest
totals likely will be in the North Woods to St. John Valley
where temperatures can fall the quickest.

Temperatures will be falling below freezing for most areas from
Bangor to Calais along The Airline northward to the St. John
Valley which may lead to black ice simply from refreezing wet
roadways. This could lead to a slick Monday AM commute even if
there is no snowfall.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Today...IFR this morning, improving to MVFR around midday then VFR
this afternoon. Winds N 5 to 10 kt.

Tonight...VFR, dropping to IFR in fog at times after midnight,
especially in the valleys. Winds NE less than 5 kt.

Saturday...IFR possible in fog in some sites early in the morning.
Otherwise, VFR. Winds SE around 10 kt.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain. South winds 10 to 15
knots, becoming west/northwest.

Sunday night...MVFR/IFR. Rain changing to snow north.
Rain Downeast. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Monday...Occasional MVFR early. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest winds
10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR. Northwest/north winds 5 to 10
knots Monday night. Variable 5 to 10 knots Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be below SCA through Saturday and seas around 2 to 3 ft.
Fog will likely limit vsby today, especially this morning, followed
by some improvement tonight into Saturday. Winds/seas below SCA
conditions through Sunday afternoon. Sunday night winds
increase and gust >25kt. Winds fall back below SCA conditions
by Monday midday. Rain/fog will reduce vsby Sun into Mon AM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MB/JS
AVIATION...MB/JS