Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 181939 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 339 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will continue to slowly move northeast away from the region across the Maritimes tonight. A new area of low pressure will develop to our south on Thursday and track across Nova Scotia Thursday night and the northern Maritimes on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Currently surface and upper low pressure remains just to the north of Northern Maine and slowly drifting to the east and northeast. This system has been generating snow and rain showers across northern and eastern areas today however expect this activity to slow diminish going into the evening. Low pressure is then expected to develop to the south of New England Thursday Morning then move northeast across the outer Gulf of Maine Thursday Night. This will result in a snow or rain across much of the area. The precipitation type will be mostly diurnally driven. Will use the precipitation type from thickness tool run on a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs. Snow accumulation form snow ratio. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Whats left of steady lgt sn erly Fri morn will taper to sct rn/sn shwrs late Fri morn and then sct rn shwrs Fri aftn as sfc low pres moves ENE away from the region alg the S shore of Nova Scotia and the upper low crosses the Rgn. Little in the way of sn accumulation is xpctd durg the morn as Sfc-BL layer temps rise abv fzg and strong late Apr background insolation keeps lgt sn rates from amounting to much on surfaces, spcly roadways which will likely only be wet durg this tm. Whats left of any rn or rn/sn shwrs Fri eve will msly end late Fri ngt, leaving msly cldy skies across the Rgn Sat as the upper trof only slowly exits the FA. Skies will then slowly clr from W to E across the FA Sat ngt with a contd NW breeze as sfc hi pres ovr Wrn QB begins to exert more influence ovr our Rgn. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... With more in the way of sunshine on Sun, aftn hi temps will begin a slowly recovery to more spring like values of mid to upper 40s N to lower 50s Downeast, albeit under still somewhat breezy conditions. More substantial improvement in temps with lgtr winds then occurs Mon and again on Tue as mdtly strong upper ridging from Cntrl Can and great lakes begins to apch our FA with contd msly clr skies. By Tue, most low trrn lctns N of the immediate coast will be near or just abv 60 deg F for aftn hi temps, with coastal areas cooler due to a sea breeze. Wed will cont be quite mild, cldnss will begin to increase from the SW durg the aftn as low pres and associated s/wv begin to apch from the OH vly, with rn movg into the Rgn from SW to NE by late Wed ngt. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect MVFR/IFR conditions tonight into Thursday Night. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR clgs and ocnl vsbys with sn and rn shwrs will prevail across our TAF sites Fri into Fri eve with a brief pd of IFR vsbys in steady lgt sn possible across Nrn TAF sites Fri morn, then improve SW to NE across the Rgn to VFR late Fri ngt into Sat morn and then cont VFR all TAF sites thru Mon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs for sustained winds. Waves: Primary wave system is long period southerly swell From Monday storm event(8 feet/9 seconds) with a secondary southwesterly wind wave. Expect the southerly swell system to slowly subside Tonight into Thursday Morning with wave heights falling to below SCA by 1500Z so will remove inter- coastal zone from SCA and keep outer waters in SCA. Have used the 1200Z NWPS run to initialize the wave grids. Boundary conditions for NWPS look reasonable. For Total Water Level: Post surge still significant, was around 1 foot from last high tide cycle so will adjust and slowly decrease surge model bias over next 2 to 3 days using the anomaly grid. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Initially winds and seas will be just below SCA thresholds Fri ovr our outer MZs050-051...but will cont to subside further below SCA thresholds ovr the weekend and cont below SCA thresholds for all our waters into early next week. Went with a blend of WW3 and NWPS guidance for fcst wv hts for these ptns of the fcst. Primary wv pds will initially be arnd 10 sec on Fri and Fri ngt with SE swell, diminishing to arnd 5 sec durg the day Sat and contg so into erly next week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...VJN/Mignone Marine...VJN/Mignone

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