Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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404 FXUS61 KCAR 232228 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 628 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure to our south will slowly drift east into the open Atlantic through Tuesday. Low pressure will approach from the southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday then track across our area Wednesday night into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 605 PM Update: Little in the way of chgs to fcst elements late this aftn leading into the ovrngt hrs in the this mild and very dry air mass (latest dwpt at KCAR is t 4 deg F). Latest trends of obsvd temps/dwpts from late aftn sfc obs, including obsvd hi temps, were used to update fcst hrly temps/dwpts into the ovrngt hrs... but no cause attm to adjust ovrngt low temps attm. Speaking of ovrngt lows, we xpct them to be much milder due to stronger winds xpctd abv the BL, spcly later tngt which will keep more of a Wrly breeze than last ngt, with less of a breeze ovr most protected vly lctns. Also, fcst temps alf ovrngt as evident of mid to upper positive single digits deg C will also not allow sfc temps to fall off much below 30 deg F ovr protected vlys with ovrngt lows well in the 30s elsewhere. Orgnl Disc: This afternoon has been the warmest so far this season, with 50s to low 60s. Dewpoints have plummeted into the single digits and teens as dry air aloft mixes down. Just a few high clouds streaming in from the northwest. Tonight looks cool with lows roughly around freezing, but not as cold as last night. Some high clouds and a bit more of a pressure gradient will keep temps from dropping as quickly. Tuesday looking even warmer than Monday. Highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s. Along the coast, a touch cooler due to onshore flow with roughly 60 degrees. Tuesday looks breezier than Monday also with winds generally 10-15 mph. Manually edited dewpoints down mainly inland, lowering them below any model guidance, mainly because of what happened with both Sunday`s and Monday`s plummeting dewpoints. Still, overall, atmosphere looks a bit moister Tuesday than Monday, with increasing high and mid-level clouds late in the day as the next weather system approaches. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will be drifting away to the east Tuesday night as some clouds begin to increase ahead of low pressure approaching from the Southeast. The southwesterly gradient behind the high combined with some increasing clouds will result in the night being milder than recent nights with lows only near 40 across the area. Clouds will continue to increase Wednesday ahead of approaching low pressure and rain may move in late in the day. The low center will track into southern New England Wednesday night as rain continues. This will be a comparatively warm rain with temps in the mid 40s Wednesday night and mid 50s with continued rain and showers on Thursday as the low lifts across our northwest. The warm rain and increasing humidity will likely produce some fog over colder surfaces Wednesday night and Thursday. Right now it looks the highest rain amounts will be Downeast where over an inch of rain may fall. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure will lift away to the northeast Thursday night. Some showers will be likely over the far north overnight followed by clearing early Friday morning as a ridge of high pressure quickly follows. Friday will be sunny to partly cloudy and mild. A secondary shortwave will then lift into the region late Friday night into Saturday bringing clouds, then a chance for some showers on Saturday. Cooler air will circulate into the region Sunday as a trough moves over the northeast. Downeast will be partly sunny while the northeast has a mostly cloudy sky. Stratocumulus may then result in a mostly cloudy day on Monday as the trough axes slides across the region. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR through Tuesday. A bit of low level wind shear far Northern Maine late tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Tuesday night. Conditions will lower to MVFR on Wednesday then IFR in low clouds, rain and fog late Wednesday through Wednesday night. IFR conditions are likely Thursday, possibly improving to MVFR downeast Thursday afternoon. MVFR conditions Thursday night should improve to VFR early Friday morning. VFR conditions are expected on Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Below small craft tonight. Winds may approach small craft levels late Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should be below SCA Tuesday night into Wednesday. A SCA may be needed for south winds gusting up to 25 to 30 kt Wednesday night. Winds should drop back below SCA Thursday into Friday. Warm, humid air moving over the waters may produce fog Wednesday night through Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... There remains a limited threat of ice jams where ice remains on the northern rivers. Most of the ice has been flushed out on the Aroostook, with more extensive areas of ice on the Saint John and Allagash, but even on these rivers there are wide areas that are mainly ice free. The combination of significant snowmelt this week and rainfall Wednesday and Thursday will cause the larger rivers to rise significantly this week and could reach bankfull by late in the week into next weekend. It remains uncertain if there will be any flooding, but at this time it would appear if there is flooding that it would be minor, but we will continue to closely monitor the situation. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...VJN/Bloomer Marine...VJN/Bloomer Hydrology... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.