Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280655 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 255 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A series of low pressure systems will track north off the coast today through Friday. Low pressure will consolidate over the Maritimes and move away Friday night followed by high pressure Saturday into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A long fetch of moisture is evident on water vapor satellite pictures this morning originating from the the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The air mass is quite moist with precipitable water values on the soundings last evening approaching an inch at both Gray and Caribou. Waves of low pressure are expected to track along a stalled frontal boundary lifting north across Maine today and tonight. The heaviest of the rain is expected across the southeast third of the FA with lighter rain to north and west of Baxter State Park. When it is not raining, there will likely be drizzle and fog. The fog has been dense tonight and there should be some improvement in the visibility today, although across hills low clouds will make it to the ground with very poor visibility. The combo of high dew points above freezing and snowmelt will lead to continued fog through tonight, but probably not as dense as early this morning as a north wind picks up a bit during the night. Highs today will be in the 40s, and will be the coolest right along the coast owing to ocean temps around 40F. Lows tonight will mainly be in the 30s. Just enough cold air aloft may work in after midnight that the rain may mix with or change to wet snow, mainly across the higher terrain in northern Piscataquis County, and along and near the Quebec border.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A negatively tilted trough pushing off the Mid-Atlantic coast will support low pressure tracking southeast of Cape Cod on Friday. Deep moisture lifting north of this low will continue to undergo dynamic lift producing rainfall across the area. Low level thicknesses across some central areas will be dropping to near 1300 at 1000/850 which indicates there may be enough cold air over some of the higher elevations over the central part of our region for some wet snow. Low pressure will track toward central Nova Scotia Friday night as the air over our region continues to cool just a bit. This will likely result in a change over to snow where precipitation is still occurring, mainly over the central and eastern parts of the region. At this point the trough axes will be shifting to our east and precipitation will be diminishing. However, a few inches of snow may be possible, especially over the higher elevations. Precipitation will taper off on Saturday as the low continues to move away and high pressure builds in bringing partial clearing.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure will continue to build in Saturday night bringing a mostly clear and seasonably cold night with lows in the low to mid 20s. Surface high pressure will remain to our west on Sunday. However, a weak upper trough will be crossing the area likely resulting in a partly to mostly cloudy sky and some isolated snow showers over the north. High pressure to our northwest in combination with lower pressure to the east will maintain a dry northwesterly flow on Monday with seasonable temperatures. High pressure will continue to build over on Tuesday bringing a partly cloudy and dry day with light winds. Our focus going into mid-week will be on a trough of low pressure and storm system approaching from the Midwest that has the potential to bring another significant snowstorm to parts of the area. A trough centered over the Great Lakes will carry low pressure into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday while high pressure remains over our region. Primary low pressure will track into the Eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night as a secondary low pressure forms over Southern New England. Clouds will begin to increase Tuesday night and a breeze will increase from the southeast. Snow will likely overspread the area Wednesday with rain possible along the coast. There is potential for significant snow late Wednesday through Wednesday evening inland as low pressure slowly tracks into the Gulf of Maine. Low pressure will remain over the Gulf of Maine later Wednesday night into Thursday as it occludes and slowly weakens. Precipitation over our area will gradually taper down to snow showers Thursday with some spotty snow showers still possible Friday as the occluding low remains to our south.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: LIFR to IFR conditions are expected at the terminals today and tonight in low clouds and fog. Rain will fall much of the time, and when it is not raining there will be areas of drizzle. The rain may mix with or change to snow late in the day Friday at KFVE. Light and variable wind today, becoming N around 10 knots tonight. SHORT TERM: Friday...IFR. N wind. Friday night...IFR, improving to MVFR Then VFR south late. Gusty NW wind. Saturday...MVFR becoming VFR north. VFR south. Gusty NW wind. Saturday night and Sunday...VFR. Light W wind. Sunday night into Monday. VFR. Light NW wind.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: The seas will continue to subside on the coastal waters today, but will remain around 5 ft this morning. As a gale watch has been issued for Friday into Saturday have elected to drop the current SCA. SHORT TERM: A gale will likely be needed Friday night through Saturday morning for winds gusting up to 35 kt. A SCA may need to follow Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Winds should then be below SCA Sunday through early next week. Seas will build up to 10 ft late Friday night into Saturday then gradually subside through the weekend.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Heavy rains over the next several day will accelerate snowmelt over the area. The snowpack is not quite ripe for melt yet, but with heavy rainfall and somewhat saturated soils, standing water could be an issue before water enters the main stem rivers. In the north, main stem rivers will mostly be able to absorb the additional input. However the Piscataquis and Mattawamkeag River Basins are at risk for reaching minor flood level late this week/early next week respectively. The Penobscot will be slightly less impacted, but some points on the lower reaches could reach action stage. In the far north, the additional water input may be enough to finally move the ice on the Saint John. A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the Central Highlands into interior Downeast through the day on Friday.
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&& $$ .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032. Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through Friday evening for MEZ011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Bloomer/CB Marine...Bloomer/CB Hydrology...Buster/CB

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