Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 140440 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1240 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Intense low pressure will move northeast and cross Nova Scotia overnight then slowly north through the northern Canadian Maritimes Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front from northern Canada will cross the region Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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12:40 am update: The blizzard warnings were cancelled with this update along the Downeast coast in collaboration with WFO GYX. Winter weather advisories have been issued as there will be add`l significant snowfall, but blizzard conditions are no longer expected. Winter storm warnings remain in effect for the remainder of the region with no change in the ending times. Previous Discussion... Snow becoming heavy at times tonight across central and Northern areas. Across far northeast Aroostook County, snow will be slower to begin, do to some drier air remaining in place, thus snow amounts will be just a bit lower here. A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for the Downeast coast overnight, where travel will be very difficult to impossible due to the combination of heavy snow and gusty northeast winds. Across interior Downeast, including the greater Bangor region, Winter Storm Warnings remain up into through Wednesday. A Winter Storm Warning remains up for the Central highlands and Southeast Aroostook through midnight Wednesday. A Winter Storm Warning remains for far Northern Aroostook through 6 am Thursday. The low will continue to track north through the Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday, with snow continuing through much of the day. The snow will begin to wind down,especially across Downeast areas later Wednesday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Whats left of deformation lgt snfl will cont across the N hlf of the Rgn Wed ngt with Cntrl and Downeast areas tapering to sct sn shwrs as the upper low conts to move slowly N from Nrn NB prov into the Nrn Maritimes. Wntr stm wrngs have been xtnded a few hrs longer into or thru Wed ngt due to contg steady accumulating snfl into this pd. Sn shwrs will then cont thru the day Thu, with warmer Sfc-BL temps resulting in rn mixing with sn shwrs durg the aftn across Cntrl and Downeast areas. Unsettled conditions will cont Thu ngt into Fri as the upper low remains ovr the Nrn Can Maritimes, with most sn shwrs over Nrn areas durg these pds. Temps will cont mild, spcly ovrngt lows. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A clipper s/wv alf and associated sfc cold front from Nrn Can will bring the region the first shot of drier low residence arctic air in nearly 3 weeks as it crosses the Rgn Fri ngt with isold to sct sn shwrs, colder ovrngt lows and and day tm hi temps Sat, and with the potential of more day tm sunshine. Another stronger clipper s/wv from Nrn Can potentially will bring the region a better chc of sn shwrs late Sat ngt into Sun followed by dry...colder mdt residence arctic air from Nrn Can into the Rgn Sun ngt contg into Tue with perhaps some modification of the air mass by Tue from milder air advcg SW from the Nrn Can Maritimes. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Widespread LIFR/VLIFR conditions will persist at KBGR/KBHB this evening in heavy snow/blowing snow, with Northeast wind gusts to 40 kt possible, especially KBHB where Blizzard conditions are expected. Further north, snow is expected to overspread the rest of the terminals this evening with IFR/LIFR conditions developing at the remaining terminals. IFR conditions are expected to persist on Wednesday in continued snow. SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR conditions across all TAF sites Wed ngt in lgt snfl will gradually improve to MVFR from S to N durg the day Thu in sn shwrs, with Downeast sites improving to VFR Thu ngt. Conditions improve to VFR across Nrn TAF sites Fri ngt from MVFR clgs/vsbys with remnant sn shwrs. VFR conditions then xpctd all TAF sites Sat into Sat eve before another possible pd of MVFR clgs/vsbys with sn shwrs occurs for msly Nrn TAF sites late Sat ngt and Sun. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Gale Force conditions continue into early Wednesday across all the waters. Visibility will be reduced to less than 1 NM at times tonight into Wednesday in snow. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Strong SCA conditions Wed ngt will gradually subside to low end SCA or below SCA thresholds aftwrds. Kept close to WW3/NWPS wv guidance for fcst wv hts thru these ptns of the fcst. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ001-002. Winter Storm Warning until midnight EDT tonight for MEZ003>006- 010. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for MEZ011- 015>017-031-032. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>052.
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