Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 220843 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 443 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure across the Great Lakes and Middle Atlantic states will build across the region through Monday. The high will then exit to the east Tuesday. Low pressure will begin to approach Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Sfc high pressure to the west of the region will settle into eastern NY State and western New England tonight. Today will feature sunshine and just a few fair weather cu. The model soundings are a lot less moist compared to yesterday. The air mass moderates just a bit today with 925-850h temps around 2C warmer than yesterday, and with a bit more sunshine highs will be about 5F milder than Saturday. There will be decent low level mixing, so a breezy day is expected, although a bit less so than Saturday. Tonight will be clear with the wind going very light/calm as the atmosphere decouples. Temperatures will be on the cold side with lows mostly in the 20s, with some teens possible in the normally colder northwest valleys, and low 30s along the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure will cross the region Monday through Monday night, then exit to the east Tuesday through Tuesday night. Mostly clear skies are expected across the region Monday/Monday night. Partly sunny skies are expected across northern areas Tuesday, with still mostly sunny skies Downeast. The return flow around exiting high pressure will draw moisture across the region from low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday night. Clouds will increase across the forecast area Tuesday night. Temperatures will be at above normal levels Monday/Tuesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Uncertainty exists with the timing and track of the low Wednesday through Thursday. The low will bring rain to the region Wednesday into Thursday, though amounts are still uncertain. The low should exit across the Maritimes Friday leaving mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area along with a slight chance of rain showers. Another low should approach from the west later Saturday with a chance of rain showers. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Wednesday through Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR through 12Z Monday. A northwest wind will pick up this morning with gusts to around 20 knots. The wind will diminish rapidly by sunset this evening. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region Monday into Tuesday night. Conditions will lower to IFR/LIFR levels Wednesday, with similar conditions then persisting through early Thursday. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected later Thursday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain well below small craft advisory levels through tonight as high pressure builds toward the waters from the west. SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to be below small craft advisory levels Monday/Monday night. Small craft advisory conditions are then possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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The ice finally went out at the Caribou dam yesterday afternoon. Until all of the ice is flushed out of the northern rivers there is always the risk that it gets hung up with a local ice jam. Warmer weather and significant snowmelt early this week should flush the remaining ice out of the northern rivers. Water levels on the northern rivers will be rising this week and will likely be running fast and high by late in the week. Whether there is any flooding will likely depend on how much rain falls later in the week, and we will continue to closely monitor the situation. Some of the GEFS and NAEFS ensemble river forecasts bring the rivers to action or flood stage by Thursday or Friday, but again whether there is any flooding remains uncertain at this time.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Yesterday marked 132 consecutive days with 6" or more of snow on the ground at Caribou. The snow depth is now down to 4" as of 2 am this morning. This ranks as the 7th longest such stretch on record. The all-time record of 144 days was set in the winter of 2007-08. Last winter came in at a tie for 3rd place with 137 days.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...CB/Norcross Marine...CB/Norcross Hydrology...CB Climate...CB

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