Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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755 FXUS61 KCAR 220211 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1011 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure off the Newfoundland coast will continue to move east into the open north Atlantic overnight. High pressure to the west of the area will build into New England Sunday. The high will crest over the area Monday then exit to the east Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1010 pm update... Hv updated to go more optimistic on sky cvr as moclr skies exist acrs most of the area. Hv updated hrly temps and dwpts with no major chgs needed to other grids at this time. Prev discussion blo... Sat imagery shows the greatest cvrg and deepest cld depth ovr the SW two thirds of the FA this mid aftn. Latest radar ref imagery also shows a relatively narrow band of lgt shwrs ovr Cntrl and SE ptns of the FA, but with dry sub-cld air ovr all of the FA, it`s likely that little if any precip is reaching the sfc attm. Subsequently, we lowered PoPs a little faster going into the evening than the prev fcst. Otherwise, models are indicating a little faster clrg across the FA from W to E ovrngt as the back edge of the cld cvr erodes due to low and mid lvl dry air. Winds, which have been gusting up to 30 mph will subside sig after sunset, spcly ovr broad rvr vly areas. Sun should be msly sunny, breezy (but not as windy as tdy) and a little milder with neutral to weak llvl cold advcn. Sun ngt will be clr with lgt winds with good radiational cooling/ sfc base invsn potential allowing for one last cold ovrngt lows erly Mon morn before a strong warming trend begins later in the day. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Spring will make a very strong appearance for the start of next work week. Highs are forecast to surge well into the 50s on Monday and then many locations should reach into the 60s on Tuesday. This pleasant weather will be courtesy of an area of high pressure sliding over New England on Mon, then moving south of Maine and Nova Scotia on Tues. Abundant sunshine is expected Monday as the core of the high slides across the region, with increasing clouds later Tues as the next system approaches. Some cooler temps aloft and lesser mixing due to lighter winds will likely limit temps to the 50s on Mon. Stronger S-SW`ly winds, more mixing, and 850mb temps around or a bit above freezing point toward highs likely in the lower 60s, provided dense cloud cover doesn`t develop too early. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The long-term forecast is messier and more complicated for sure, with a series of systems possibly impacting the CWA. However, with the 12z cycle, models have come into better agreement on the timing and number of waves for the second half of the week. One can only hope that this agreement holds as we go forward. As a 500mb cut-off low moves toward the CWA Wed and Thu, rain likely reaches the CWA Wed afternoon, with heavier rain seeming most likely Wed eve and night. Rain showers will persist during the day and evening on Thu as the cut-off crosses over the area. Some brief and weak upper-level ridging may allow for a bit of clearing Fri and Fri night. Models then disagree on the timing of the arrival of the next cut-off system, due to differences on how far south of the main jet the cut-off low gets. The forecast currently brings in chance POPs during the day Saturday, with low-end likely POPs for the Central Highlands and North Woods Sat afternoon. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours. NW winds will pick up again mid- morning Sun. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions expected for all sites through Tue night. MVFR CIGs expected to develop during the day Wed as rain spreads in from the west. CIGs may drop to IFR at times Wed night into Thu, with MVFR vis likely in areas of heavier rain. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and wvs, which are currently below SCA thresholds, will cont to slowly subside ovrngt thru Sun ngt. Kept close to WW3/NWPS guidance for fcst wv hts, with two wv pd spectras, a swell group arnd 10 sec and wind driven group arnd 5 sec. SHORT TERM: Light offshore winds Mon will turn more SW`ly Mon night into Tue and increase as high pressure moves east of the area. Wind gusts Tue and Tue night may approach SCA levels, but as of now they were kept below criteria. Seas will build later Tue into Tue night with the shift to strengthening onshore flow, but should remain in the 3 to 5 ft range. && .HYDROLOGY... Aside from the risk of other isolated ice jams forming on one of the northern rivers no flooding is expected this weekend into early next week. The ice should finally get flushed out next week with a significant warmup that will lead to a lot of snowmelt. By mid- late next week, the rivers will be running high due to snowmelt, but whether there is any flooding will likely depend on how much rain falls late in the week. The situation will need to be closely monitored through the week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/VJN Short Term...Kredensor Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...Farrar/VJN/Kredensor Marine...Farrar/VJN/Kredensor Hydrology...

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