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461
FXUS61 KCAR 151901
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME
301 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A stalled frontal boundary will result in afternoon shower and
thunderstorm chances through the end of the week along with
seasonably mild temperatures. The shower chances continue through
the weekend...although a washout is not expected.  Somewhat drier
and warmer conditions are expected for the start of next week.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High Impact Weather Potential: Isolated thunderstorms with locally
heavy rain possible through this evening. Patchy fog will
develop overnight.

Pattern: A band of showers has developed across northern New England
this afternoon along a diffuse frontal boundary draped across the
region.  SBCAPEs have reached around 500 J/kg with PWATs along the
boundary around 1 inch.

Through this Evening: Showers will continue through this
evening under cloudy skies. Local downpours are possible as
unidirectional hodographs suggest some backbuilding/training
potential. Instability will be a limiting factor for any severe
potential with no severe expected. Temperatures through 7pm
will fall back into the 60s.

Tonight: Diminishing instability will cause this afternoon/s
convective activity to wane...though showers will continue along the
front as mid level shortwave moves overhead with modest mid level
forcing for ascent.  Further south for BGR south and east along the
Downeast coast, expect that we/ll remain precipitation free through
the night...but a gradually building NE llevel flow will cause
ceilings to lower and fog to develop.  Low temperature should remain
pretty uniform...in the upper 40s to around 50.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Weak shortwave passes east of the region Thursday morning with mid
level heights slowly building and high pressure over Atlantic Canada
pushing its way south and west into the region. Despite this...weak
llevel convergence will continue as cold front draped across the
region sags towards the coast.  This boundary will continue to
provide a focus for shower development though the lack of forcing
will keep coverage minimal and any rainfall amounts light.  Very
similar temperatures aloft suggests little change for daytime highs
which should again reach the upper 60s across the north...with lower
70s across interior portions of central and Downeast Maine.

Any shower activity should come to an end Thursday night leaving
conditions dry and partly cloudy.  Expect some patchy fog
development as temperatures fall to around 50.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Split flow across NOAM through early next week with high pressure
centered over maritime Canada. With shortwaves passing north of the
region Friday and Saturday...there will be some diurnal shower
chances. Given the maritime high position...the pattern does not
favor much in the way of instability and thus...do not foresee much
thunder threat for Friday/Saturday. Beyond this the northern stream
lifts north with a dry period more likely for Sunday and Monday.  By
the middle of next week a building eastern Pacific Jet will lend
additional shortwave energy that will dig further south across the
CONUS and allow for an increasing chance for precipitation as we
move into the middle of next week.

With the overall trough-ridge setup across NOAM...temperatures aloft
will be above normal throughout the long term forecast period with
the guidance consensus favoring this translating to high
temperatures above May normals except for coastal areas where the
maritime high pressure will favor robust sea breezes and
temperatures closer to...or a bit below normal.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

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Summary: Deteriorating conditions tonight as showers develop along a
cold front with fog and low clouds developing.  Gradual improvement
is expected for the day on Thursday with a few showers

Restrictions: VFR attm outside of MVFR CIGS about to burn off at
FVE.  Expect VFR conditions to continue into the evening...but
developing showers will cause CIGS/VSBYS to decrease tonight.
Restrictions continue through Thursday morning with improving
conditions during the day. Another round of fog is possible
Thursday night.

Winds: Light winds are expected through the TAF period...generally
5kts or less...increasingly becoming northeast away from the coast
tonight and through the day Thursday.

LLWS: No LLWS is expected through Thursday night.

Lightning: An isolated thunderstorm can/t be ruled out through this
evening at all sites except FVE/BGR/BHB.  Thunder is not expected
across the terminals on Thursday and Thursday night.

Beyond Thursday night...a few afternoon showers may bring
isolated restrictions for HUL/CAR and points north for
Friday/Saturday with any overnight fog most likely at BHB.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Fog is expected over the waters with light winds and relatively
calm waters as a cold front remains draped across the region. At
this time...winds/waves look to remain SCA levels through at
least Tuesday of next week.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


ARNOTT/GYX