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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 111040
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
640 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will approach today and lift north into the area
tonight. Strong low pressure will track to the west on Friday
followed by a cold front on Saturday. The low will dissipate to
our north on Sunday. High pressure builds early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
6:40AM Update...Aviation update below...

6:01AM Update...No major changes. Added a larger area of patchy
to areas of drizzle this morning based on ground observations.
In addition, with the drizzle added more fog which is noted at
FVE, GNR and other areas. Overall, forecast remains on track
with just a few showers.

Previous Discussion...
Surface weak warm front lifting north across the area today into
tonight with 500mb ridging overhead today. Surface winds are out
of the SE with moisture advecting into the boundary layer off
the Gulf of Maine with 925mb winds from the due south. The ridge
shifts east by late day as the warm front lifts north by
evening. Expecting scattered showers today with some patchy
drizzle and fog possible this morning. Showers increase
throughout the day into the afternoon with steady rain pushing
NE from southern Maine. Expect a cloudy day with temperatures in
the mid 40s with some upper 40s possible across the area. SE
winds increase throughout the afternoon and become breezy with
gusts 15-25mph possible.

Tonight, expect the warm front to lift NE of the area into
tomorrow morning with steady rain pushing through. Additionally,
patchy to areas of fog are likely with deep moist atmosphere. SE
winds 5-15mph with gusts up to 25-30mph possible. Given the
clouds, increasing warmth aloft and the rain expect lows to only
fall a few degrees back into the 40-45F range overnight into the
AM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Friday is expected to be a windy and wet day as deep low
pressure over Lake Huron slowly lifts north into Western Quebec.
There will be a strong pressure gradient between the low and a
strong high east of the Maritimes. There will be a long fetch of
moisture from off the east coast of Florida north into Maine
that will produce rain across the FA. It would appear that the
heaviest of the rain will likely be across the southern half of
the FA including the Downeast Region and into the Central
Highlands. Rainfall amounts are expected to be around an inch,
but with locally 1-2" of rain in spots south of Millinocket,
with amounts dropping off to around 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch to the
north. Any flooding issue are expected to be limited to the
central highlands where there is still a couple of inches of
water contained in the snow (mostly in wooded areas) and with
some upslope an inch or two of rain will fall. Temps in the 50s,
gusty wind, and partially frozen ground will cause a fair
amounts of runoff.

The pressure gradient does tighten up nicely with about a 10
millibar pressure difference across the state and 70 knot jet is
noted along the coast at 925H, although a steep inversion will
likely prevent this wind aloft from mixing to the ground. Wind
gusts to 50 mph out of the south are still likely along the
coast, especially along the immediate shoreline and across the
higher terrain. Will issue a wind advisory for the coast. Some
of the wind could locally funnel up the Penobscot to Bangor, but
more widespread wind advisory criteria is not likely to be met
further inland with gusts mostly in the 35 to 45 mph range, but
it is possible that the wind advisory could need to be expanded
north another tier of zones, but hesitant at this time to go any
further inland given the strength of the inversion. Another
factor that led to the issuance of the advisory is the very wet
soils due to recent rain and snow events.

By Friday evening an occluded front will clear the region with the
steady rain ending, but with showers, drizzle, and fog all likely.
On Saturday, a cold front will cross the area with showers,
especially so across the northern half of the FA.  Temps start mild,
and there is no real push of cooler air until Saturday evening so it
will be a mild day with highs in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cooler air will filter into the area behind a cold front Sat night,
but the air mass is not all that cool with lows expected to be in
the 30s. A weak shortwave in the flow could touch off a shower in
spots Sunday, but most of the day will be rain-free along with
seasonable temperatures.  The weather will likely remain at least
somewhat unsettled into Monday as a surface low passes south and an
upper trough crosses the area with a few more showers.  It looks
more uncertain whether or not a fast moving low passing to the
south can produce a short period of steadier rain across the
southern half of the area.

Drier and milder weather follows for Tuesday with another
potential front extending from low pressure in the Great Lakes
to possibly bring more showers by Wednesday. Temperatures will
be near to a bit above average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: 12z TAF Update...IFR/LIFR at northern terms with low
cigs & FG/BR. MVFR at southern terms. Expecting generally IFR
conditions today with low cigs. Brief MVFR cigs possible before
the -RA arrives from SW later today. No major changes...

Previous Discussion...
MVFR/IFR this morning except VFR at BHB. General trend is to
IFR this morning with low cigs. Mainly IFR but at times MVFR
cigs possible today. Winds SE 10-15kt with gusts up to 25kt
possible. LLWS likely at BHB into tonight. VCSH this morning
becoming
-RA. Tonight IFR, LIFR possible. -RA BR with SE winds 10-15kt
and gusts up to 25kt

SHORT TERM:
Fri..LIFR/IFR in rain and fog.  LLWS likely, especially at KBGR and
KBHB. S/SE wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots.  Gusts to 40
to 45 knots at KBHB.

Fri night: IFR likely in low clouds and scattered showers, drizzle
and fog.  S wind diminishing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25
knots.

Sat: Gradually improvement to MVFR expected.  S wind 10 to 20 knots
with a few higher gusts.

Sat night & Sun: MVFR to VFR. Wind shifting west 5 to 15 knots.

Sun night & Mon: Predominately VFR, but MVFR possible in any
scattered showers. West wind around 5 knots Sun night and 10 to
15 knots Mon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA conditions today with SE wind gusts up to 30kt.
Seas building 4-7ft today with a wave period of 7 seconds.
Tonight expect winds to shift S with gusts up to 30kt. By
daybreak tomorrow S wind gusts increase to Gales with a Gale
Warning starting at 5AM. Seas tonight continue to build becoming
5-8ft by daybreak with a wave period of 7-8 seconds. Rain may
reduce vsby through tonight. Sea surface temperatures from the
Downeast coast out 25nm and east to the Hague Line including
Passamaquoddy Bay are 39-41F.

SHORT TERM: A gale warning is in effect Friday and into Friday night.
A small craft advisory will likely be required Saturday for the
combination of wind and seas, and will likely be needed into Sunday
on the coastal water for residual seas, although it probably will
not be needed on the intra-coastal waters by later Sat night and
Sunday.  The wind/seas will likely be below SCA levels on all of the
waters by Sun night and Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rainfall will fall on snow Friday into Friday
evening across the Central Highlands and Northern Maine where
snowfall remains present. Isolated areas of heavy rain is
possible to fall in a short period of time. Latest NOHRSC
analysis and Maine Cooperative Snow Survey Program shows areas
of 1-4 inches of snow water equivalent (SWE) sitting on the
ground. Rainfall totals expected 0.75-1.5 inch across the area
with isolated higher amounts possible. NOHRSC analysis shows the
snowpack temperatures 31.9-32F which indicates the pack is very
ripe with significant melting expected. Latest modeling
suggests 1-2 inches or more of the SWE may melt out combining
with up to 1.5 inch of rainfall to create significant runoff.
The ground remains partially frozen with above normal
groundwater conditions which suggests absorption is unlikely
resulting in nearly complete runoff. The best chance of
significant runoff will be across the Piscataquis River basin
impacting all the smaller rivers and streams along with the
Piscataquis itself. The latest river model ensembles for the
Piscataquis River at Dover-Foxcroft (DOVM1) gives a 10-20%
chance of reaching minor flood stage Friday into Saturday. The
latest forecast from the Northeast River Forecast Center (NERFC)
has DOVM1 reaching Action Stage on Friday evening but remaining
below flood stage. We will likely see significant rises on the
smaller rivers and streams like the Sebec & Pleasant Rivers
along with the Kingsbury Stream. Given this concern have opted
to hoist a Flood Watch for portions of Southern & Central
Piscataquis County to cover the entire Piscataquis River basin.
This lines up with the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Day 2
Excessive Rainfall Outlook of a "Slight Risk".

Although rainfall will be falling elsewhere it will be lighter
across the north with snowmelt expected the runoff will not
cause any issues. Along the Downeast coast there is no snowmelt
and although grounds are very soaked and heavier rain will be
present, not expecting any flood concerns at this time. WPC Day
2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook has the remainder of the CWA in a
"Marginal Risk" which seems fine with the combination of
rain+snowmelt across the north and short duration heavy rainfall
in the Downeast region.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
For the Friday afternoon high tide near 230 pm, we do expect
storm surge of over 1 foot, but the astro tides are not expected
to be high enough to cause any major issues or coastal
flooding. Wave runup may cause minor issues and a Coastal Flood
Statement is possible, especially given that the seas will be
running 12 to 16 ft on the coastal waters Friday afternoon.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     MEZ010-031.
     Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Sinko
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Sinko/CB
Marine...Sinko/CB
Hydrology...Sinko
Tides/Coastal Flooding...CB