Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 200010
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
810 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move across the Gulf of Maine this evening then
northeast into the Maritimes Friday. High pressure will build in
from the west over the weekend with below average temperatures
expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
810 pm update...
Showers are hit and miss acrs the CWA this evng and wl lkly rmn
off and on thru the rmndr of the overnight as cyclonic flow and
upr lvl vorts cont to mv thru. Temps hv dipped into the mid-30s
already acrs the North Woods and nr 40F acrs the rmndr of nrn
CWA. Shud see rain chg ovr to light snow acrs the north after
06z tonight. Expect that snow accums wl be on the lgt side
tonight, with 1/2 inch or less expected thru mrng.

Prev discussion blo...
Low pressure at the surface and aloft will move to the
northeast away from New England this evening. Another low
pressure system developing to the south of New England will move
across the outer portion of the Gulf of Maine late tonight.
Both systems are expected to produce light precipitation across
the region into Friday. Precipitation will be in the form of
rain initially in all areas then change to snow across the north
later tonight. Will use the precipitation type from thickness
tool run on a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs. For Snow amounts
have used the Snow Ratio Tools.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overall expecting a nice weekend, although it will be cool and
blustery once again with below average temperatures. General
northwest flow will be advecting cool and dry Canadian air into
Maine as we are on the backside of a 500mb trough. Winds aloft
are moderately strong at 925-850mb, with steep low level laps
rates developing during the afternoon hours, so expect some wind
gusts which that will make the low to mid-40s not so pleasant.
Winds will remain below advisory level, so blustery will be the
best way to describe Saturday. More of the same expected on
Sunday, but temperatures will moderate a little and skies will
be mostly sunny.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pattern change expected by Monday with 500mb ridging finally
expected over the Eastern Seaboard. There will be an associated
surface high across Southern New England with warm westerly flow
becoming established by Monday afternoon. Highs will surge into
the 50s once again under mostly clear skies. More of the same on
Tuesday and it will be even warmer with some 60s possible across
the region. Most of the long term guidance is hinting at a
southern stream surface low beginning to move up the coast by
Wednesday with chances of rain increasing by Wednesday night
into Thursday. Flow will turn southerly with onshore flow
becoming established, so it will most likely be cool and foggy
on the coast and warmer further inland with rain showers by the
end of this forecast period. Overall this period will have above
average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR expected to lower to MVFR across northern
terminals around midnight then drop to IFR after 06z and
possibly LIFR cigs. Expect MVFR restrictions at BGR and BHB
tonight becoming VFR after 18z. Light snow possible north of HUL
after 06z.

SHORT TERM: Aviation conditions will be improving for the
weekend as rain/snow showers pull out of the area. Expecting
VFR conditions at all TAF terminals this weekend into the
beginning of next week. Winds will be gusty out of the NW during
the afternoon hours this weekend though.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs for
sustained winds. Waves: Primary wave system continues to be long
period southerly swell generated off the East Coast earlier in
the week. This wave system will continue to subside Tonight. An
off-shore wind wave is expected to build later tonight as winds
increase, however combined seas and wind gusts are expected to
remain below SCA through tonight. Will use NWPS to initialize
the wave grids. Total Water Level: Surge Models still showing
low bias last high tide cycle so will start with 0.70 foot
adjustment higher and slowly decrease over next several days.

SHORT TERM: Winds will be gusty from the northwest with offshore
flow expected through the weekend. Winds are expected to remain
below SCA criteria though with max gusts around 20 kts. Waves
will generally be 2 to 4 feet across the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers will very slowly rise over the next 24 hours before
leveling off as drier and cooler air works into Maine for the
weekend with nighttime low temperatures dropping below freezing
once again. This will limit snowmelt with controlled melt
expected once again. Some ice will continue to move especially
on the Aroostook river, but not expecting a full flush at this
point based on current river flows. Things will change for next
week though with the big warm up coming followed by rain.
Expect full out ice to occur sometime next week. With that said,
we will have to continue to monitor the rivers this weekend as
ice is weak and moving in some places.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar/Mignone
Short Term...Dumont
Long Term...Dumont
Aviation...Farrar/Mignone/Dumont
Marine...Farrar/Mignone/Dumont
Hydrology...



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