Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 260147 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 947 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push south across the region tonight then continue offshore on Saturday. High pressure will build across the north Saturday night then slide into the Maritimes on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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940 PM Update: Sct showers are beginning to wind down ovr the far N but continue more numerous ovr N Cntrl and E Cntrl areas with still some isold thunder particular on a line from Baker Lake in Nrn Somerset county to just S of Houlton in SE Aroostook county. We xpct thats whats left of any thunder will end aft mdngt as shwrs cont to slowly settle S into Downeast areas ahead of an advancing cold front. Latest obsvd temps/dwpts were used to update fcst hrly values into the ovrngt hrs with no chg to fcst ovrngt lows posted at 5am Sat. Orgnl Disc: A cold front pushing south across the region will produce some thunderstorms this evening. The best chance for thunderstorms will be across central areas from northern Somerset county east across central Piscataquis, northern Penobscot, Southeastern Aroostook and northern Washington counties. Winds will be strong aloft and any thunderstorm may contain strong gusty winds and hail early this evening. Thunderstorms should dissipate around mid evening. Showers will push south across the Downeast area late tonight into early Saturday morning as the front continues south. High pressure building across the north will bring clearing from north to south on Saturday. By the end of the day Saturday, most of the area will be mostly sunny with partial sunshine along the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will pass to the north of the region Sunday resulting in dry conditions. A cold front is expected to approach from the west Monday with an increase in clouds followed by showers later in the afternoon. More wide spread showers are expected Monday Evening into early Tuesday as the front moves through the region along with an upper level low pressure system. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will build in from the west later in the day Tuesday then move to the east of New England for Wednesday and Thursday with dry conditions expected on both days. Temperatures are expected to warm up significantly in the return flow on the back side of the high thursday with afternoon highs getting into the 80s in all areas except along the coast. Low pressure is then expected to approach from the south Friday. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: A few central areas may briefly drop to MVFR or IFR in showers and gusty thunderstorms early this evening. Northern areas should remain VFR tonight and Saturday with the brief exception of some showers this evening. Downeast areas will drop to MVFR then IFR late tonight into early Saturday morning as lower clouds with the cold front move across. Conditions Downeast should return to MVFR during the midday and afternoon. SHORT TERM: VFR Conditions are expected Sunday and Monday. MVFR conditions are expected Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected Tuesday Night and Wednesday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: 940 PM Update...We lowered the SCA for our inner bay/harbor MZ with winds and seas below thresholds here, but xtnd the SCA ovr our outer MZs050-051 msly for seas which will take a little longer into the late ngt (4am) before subsiding below 5 ft. Orgnl Disc...Winds should diminish later tonight into Saturday as cold front approaches and crosses the waters. SHORT TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam/Gfs for winds. For Waves: The primary wave system Sunday and Monday is expected to be longer period southeasterly swell (2-3 feet/7-8 seconds) with a secondary northeasterly wind wave group around 2 feet. The long period swell is expected to subside on Tuesday and Wednesday to around 1 foot. Wind wave will go off-shore later Tuesday into Wednesday. Will use NWPS to initialize the waves.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...VJN/Mignone Marine...VJN/Mignone

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