Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280155 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 955 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Multiple low pressure systems pass offshore tonight through Saturday. High pressure builds in Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Update... Abundant low level moisture and occasional rain will persist overnight. Expect areas of fog, locally dense, to persist overnight as well. Have made some minor adjustments to current temperatures and overnight lows based on the latest observed data. Otherwise, the forecast still looks good through the overnight hours. Previous Discussion... Rain looks to increase in coverage after daybreak Thursday as upr level jet streak intensifies over Quebec and places the FA in right entrance region of jet. Total rainfall on Thursday expected to range from 0.25 inches over the North Woods to as much as one inch along the Downeast coast, especially over Washington County. Given numerous rounds of rainfall moving through interior Downeast over the next several days have issued a Flood Watch through Friday (see hydro section below).
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Rainy weather will continue Thursday night into Friday as low pressure develops along a stalled frontal boundary. Areas of fog will continue to be possible Thursday night into Friday morning. Model guidance has trended upward with QPF totals. Expecting 1.5 to 2 inches in the North Woods. 2 to 3.5 inches of QPF are forecast for elsewhere, with the higher amounts over Downeast Maine into Southeastern Aroostook County. A Flood Watch will remain in effect through Friday evening from a line extending from Dover-Foxcroft to Danforth southward. Here, confidence is highest in heavy rainfall and flooding impacts. As the new low moves northeastward offshore and strengthens, colder air will get drawn into the region. This will cause precipitation to change to wet snow over part of the area later Friday into Friday night. Potentially even Thursday night near the Quebec border. Conditions will be favorable for banding to set up. However, there is still disagreement among models as to where the snow axis sets up over the area. The NAM is the furthest west, bringing heavy snow near the Quebec border. The rest of the region would remain rain before ending as some light snow or snow showers Saturday morning. The RGEM, CMC, and ECMWF models are further east, with accumulating snow near the New Brunswick border Friday night into Saturday morning. The GFS is in the middle, with a band of accumulating snow over much of the North, and possibly into the Bangor region. Large spread exists amongst each ensemble suite as well. Given the uncertainty, decided to stay close to WPC guidance regarding snowfall. Advisory level snowfall will be possible where the snow band sets up, and possibly low-end warning snowfall in higher terrain. Regardless, precipitation will mostly taper off Saturday morning, though some snow showers could linger over the North and close to the New Brunswick border through the day. Northwesterly winds will increase in the wake of the low, gusting 35-45 mph at times. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the 20s to near 30 degrees in the North and lower 30s near Bangor and Downeast. Highs on Saturday will be in the 30s in the North, and lower 40s for Bangor and Downeast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will build into the area Saturday night into Sunday as the aforementioned low departs. This will end any leftover snow showers and allow winds to gradually diminish. The high will remain in control at least through Monday night. Models show another low pressure system approaching towards midweek, but details remain uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR, occasional VLIFR, conditions are expected across the region tonight through Thursday with occasional rain and fog. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots tonight through Thursday. SHORT TERM: Thursday night...IFR or lower likely in RA and patchy fog. Winds light and variable. Friday...IFR or lower probable. Low chance for rain mixing with or changing to snow in the afternoon across the North. NW winds G15-25KT possible. LLWS possible at southern terminals in the afternoon. Friday night-Saturday morning...IFR or lower possible with snow possibly mixed with rain at Northern terminals and rain possibly mixed with snow at southern terminals. NW winds 15-20KT G25-35KT possible with LLWS also possible at southern terminals Friday night. Saturday afternoon...Becoming VFR southern terminals and MVFR at northern terminals with -SHSN. NW winds 10-15KT G20-35KT possible. Saturday night...Mainly VFR. NW winds G20-25KT possible. Sunday-Monday...Mainly VFR. NW winds 5-15KT, G20KT possible. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters, due to seas tonight into Thursday morning. Conditions are then expected to be below small craft advisory levels through the remainder of Thursday. Rain and fog tonight through Thursday. SHORT TERM: Fog and rain will continue to reduce visibility on the waters Thursday night. As low pressure passes to the east, northwest winds and seas will build above Small Craft Advisory criteria by Friday morning. Winds are likely to reach gale force Friday night into Saturday before dropping back to SCA levels Saturday night. Winds and seas subside below SCA criteria Sunday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Heavy rains over the next several day will accelerate snowmelt over the area. The snowpack is not quite ripe for melt yet, but with heavy rainfall and somewhat saturated soils, standing water could be an issue before water enters the main stem rivers. In the north, main stem rivers will mostly be able to absorb the additional input. However the Piscataquis and Mattawamkeag River Basins are at risk for reaching minor flood level late this week/early next week respectively. The Penobscot will be slightly less impacted, but some points on the lower reaches could reach action stage. In the far north, the additional water input may be enough to finally move the ice on the Saint John. A Flood Watch has been issued for portions of the Central Highlands into interior Downeast through the day on Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for MEZ011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...TWD/Norcross/Buster Short Term...Clark Long Term...Clark Aviation...TWD/Buster/Clark Marine...TWD/Buster/Clark Hydrology...Buster/Maloit

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