Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 282018 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 418 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A series of low pressure systems will track north off the coast tonight through Friday. Low pressure will consolidate over the Maritimes and move away Friday night followed by high pressure Saturday through Monday. Another low pressure will approach the area from the south on Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A 500mb trof is rounding the base over southeastern United States this evening and will lift north along the Atlantic Seaboard tonight into tomorrow AM. Surface low pressure will develop under the trof and lift northward which will be the next slug of moderate to heavy rainfall. Before that happens the moisture conveyor belt will keep the light to moderate rain going this evening with pockets of heavy downpours especially Downeast. Mainly shower activity across the North Woods and that might shift east over the next few hours into northeast Aroostook County. Expecting another 0.5-1.5 inches of rain over much of the area tonight before the next big slug of moisture arrives with a rapidly deepening low tomorrow. Patchy to areas of fog expected tonight especially in places that have snowpack. As the shortwave lifting north tilts negative and upper level divergence aloft increases surface convergence expect the surface low to deepen rather quickly. At the same time as the low tracks over the Gulf of Maine into New Brunswick expect temperatures to fall aloft and then to the surface resulting in rain changing to snow across the North Woods by daybreak. Rain will change to snow and march eastward to the rest of northern Maine and into portions of the Central Highlands. Expecting the snow to last into tomorrow evening. Generally expect 1-3 inches of wet snow with isolated higher amounts in higher terrain. Accumulations will likely be on colder surfaces and given this is falling during the day and not very heavy expecting most roadways to remain wet. N-NW winds will increase tomorrow generally 10-15mph with gusts 25-35mph. Will continue the flood watch through tomorrow evening for all of Downeast, Central Highlands up to the Baxter region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The upper level longwave trough will gradually shift out of our area Friday night into early Saturday morning. Precip wrapping around the backside of the low will continue across most of the north down through the eastern half of the forecast area into Washington county. With northeasterly cold air advection, temperatures will fall into the upper 20s across the north, and precip will be mostly snow, with a mix of rain down into Washington county. As the surface low continues to track further east into the Canadian Maritimes Saturday morning, precip rates will decrease and snow will exit the area through the late morning hours. High pressure will begin to build into the area Saturday night through Sunday, keeping the region drier. Skies will begin to clear Saturday night, especially across the north, and with decreasing winds, temperatures could fall into the upper teens in the north. Cloud cover may hang on longer Downeast due to a disturbance well to the south of the area, keeping lows in the mid 20s. Highs on Sunday with partly to mostly clear skies will lift into the low to mid 40s Downeast and into the mid to upper 30s in the north. Though a light northeast wind will continue to advect cold air, the higher solar angle this time of the year will be enough to combat this cooler air.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure will linger through the day on Monday, before the next low pressure system approaches from the southwest. For this next storm, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty for how far north the low will track, which will depend on how strong the ridge of high pressure across the St. John Valley will be. 12z deterministic guidance all came in with solutions which tracked the low along the coast of Maine, bringing precip across the entire forecast area. The exception is the 12z run of the ECMWF, which brings the low center north of the state, but still brings precip through the entire region. Ensemble plots have given a range of solutions from crossing the Downeast region to tracking well south of the Gulf of Maine. The latter ensemble solution will result in no precipitation in our forecast area as the ridge of high pressure dominates. Should the low track closer to our coast however, a swath of snow may sweep across the region, with the potential for a deformation zone to set up just northwest of the low center and bring higher snowfall rates to a narrow region. The newest solution from the ECMWF may bring precip to the entire region, but more in the way of rain as the warm sector crosses the region.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR or lower at all but KBHB through the TAF period. KBHB starts at VFR this afternoon and lowers to IFR late this afternoon/early this evening. Low chance of rain mixing with or changing to snow late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon KFVE. Light and variable winds all terminals, becoming NW-N at under 10KT overnight. Winds increase to NW10-15G2025KT at northern terminals around mid Friday morning and NNW 15-20G25-30KT at southern terminals by around/shortly before sunrise Friday. SHORT TERM: Friday night...IFR at all terminals in rain becoming snow, improving to MVFR in the north and VFR Downeast late. NW winds 15 to 20 kts gusting 30 to 35 kts. Saturday...MVFR becoming VFR north. VFR south. NW winds 15 to 20 kts gusting 25 to 30 kts. Saturday night-Monday night...VFR. Light N to NW winds. Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible, especially at Downeast terminals. Light NE winds.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Expect winds to remain below 20kts through this evening but winds shifting N will rapidly become SCA conditions tomorrow. SCA will become N-NW Gales tomorrow late day. Seas building 4-7ft tonight into tomorrow. Gale Warning starts at 5pm on Friday. SHORT TERM: A gale warning remains in place into Saturday afternoon for gusts up to 35 to 40 kts and seas 6 to 9 ft. Conditions will rapidly improve below SCA levels into the day on Sunday and remain as such through the early part of next week.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Heavy rains overnight will accelerate snowmelt over the area. The snowpack is rapidly ripening, heavy rainfall and very saturated soils, standing water could be an issue before water enters the main stem rivers. In the north, main stem rivers will mostly be able to absorb the additional input. However, the Piscataquis and Mattawamkeag River Basins are at risk for reaching minor flood level late this week into the weekend. The Penobscot will be slightly less impacted, but some points on the lower reaches could reach action stage. In the far north, the additional water input may be enough to finally move the ice on the St. John river. A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the Central Highlands (including Baxter & Moosehead Region) into interior Downeast through the day Friday.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Flood Watch through Friday evening for MEZ004>006-010-011- 015>017-029>032. MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 PM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Sinko Short Term...AStrauser Long Term...AStrauser Aviation...Maloit/AStrauser Marine...Sinko/AStrauser Hydrology...Sinko

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