Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 222303 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 703 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to dominate the region with clear skies and a warming trend into Tuesday. The chance for rain increases by Wednesday as a surface low tracks into the state from the south. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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645 PM Update: Fcst hrly temps and dwpts were updated into the ovrngt hrs based on trends seen from erly eve obs with only minor chgs to fcst ovrngt lows posted between 5 and 6 am Mon morn. The other chg was to lower fcst min aftn RHs for fire wx concerns on Mon based on obsvd min RHs across the Rgn this past aftn and the xpctn that similar values will be obsvd across the Rgn tomorrow aftn given WNW flow alf and WSW sfc winds, which should allow some mixing of dry air alf from at least 950 mb or so. Orgnl Disc: Not much to talk about in the near term with high 1032mb surface high pressure building in across southern New England tomorrow. Warming trend will begin under sunny skies and light westerly winds. The day will start off the chilly side though with a dry airmass in place and strong radiational cooling. Temperatures will quickly rebound as the strong late April sun warms most areas into the 50s. Enjoy the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Tuesday will be a `banner day` across the CWA, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs surging into the 60s almost everywhere except the coast and higher elevations. Highs were bumped up for central and northern areas, based on 850mb temps of +1C to +3C and expectations of decent mixing. Temps for Bangor and the the coast looked good and weren`t changed significantly. An increasing S`ly component to the winds Tue afternoon will likely cap Bangor`s temps in the mid 60s - otherwise upper 60s would be possible. Some scattered clouds will move into central and northern areas by later Tue afternoon as the next system approaches. As the upper low associated with this next system dives SE across the eastern Great Lakes during the day Wed, overcast skies will move during the morning. Rain looks likely to reach southern and western edges of the CWA by midday, then spread north and east during the afternoon hours. Rain totals through Wed afternoon will likely be on the light side along the NB border and in the St. John Valley. But by 00z Thu, over a quarter inch is possible from Moosehead Lake down through coastal Downeast, with heavier rain possible into the long-term. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... An additional half inch or so of rain appears quite possible Between later Wed evening and Thu afternoon. The GFS currently has, by far, the deepest upper low and strongest surface low, and consequently shows some more vigorous precip around the surface low as it occludes over northern Maine. The most likely chance for heavier rain totals will be central and eastern areas, especially for Bangor and Downeast. How much rain falls for northwestern zones will depend partly on how strong the system is and how much moisture can wrap around the surface low Thu and Thu night. Some shallow shortwave upper ridging and a weak surface ridge will likely bring a break in precip for later Thu night into Fri, though clouds may not fully clear from the CWA. Another broad upper trough should bring some precip to the state over the weekend, but significant disagreement remains on the details of the timing of the upper trough and when any surface system will bring rain to the CWA. Thus, POPs were largely kept to chance, except for some low-end likely POPs for the Central Highlands and North Woods. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions with high pressure firmly in control. No impacts to aviation operations expected through Monday. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions expected through Tue night, though a mid-level deck may move in Tue night. Clouds will lower during the day Wed, with MVFR to IFR CIGs expected Wed afternoon into Thu eve, with locally MVFR vsby in areas of heavier rain. Conditions clear back to MVFR and then VFR on Fri. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: High pressure will crest over the Gulf of Maine on Monday bringing light winds and small waves. No issues expected on the coastal waters. SHORT TERM: Moderate SW`ly winds Mon night and Tue AM will turn more S-SSW`ly and freshen a bit Tue afternoon and evening, but gusts should remain below 25kts. Winds will diminish a bit and turn S-SE`ly later Tue night into Wed. Seas will build up to 3-5 ft Tue eve and night, then drop again Wed AM. && .HYDROLOGY... Ice out continues on the rivers of Northern Maine today with a few minor ice jams on the Saint John, but no impacts due to flooding at this time. Overall the Aroostook is almost flushed of ice in most areas with limited threat of ice jams, with Masardis still needing to flush out completely. MODIS satellite shot this morning showed large areas of open river even on the upper reaches of the Saint John and Allagash. Overall the ice jam threat remains limited. Flood concerns will quickly transition to open water flooding as spring is finally coming with snowmelt rates expected to rapidly increase this week with warm temperatures, rising dewpoints and rain by Wednesday. Could have some localized flood issues of small rivers and streams by Wednesday as the snow really starts to melt rapidly. Mainstem rivers will continue to rise through the week across the north and could start to approach action stage by the weekend. We will see how things unfold this week, but flood watches could still be possible. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Kredensor Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...VJN/Kredensor Marine...VJN/Kredensor Hydrology...VJN

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