-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
331
FXUS61 KCAR 020649
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
249 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak low pressure will track through the state then into the Gulf of
Maine today. High pressure will build over the area Friday into
Saturday. A weak trough of low pressure will approach on Sunday then
slide across the area Sunday night. High pressure will build south
of the area Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak and elongated area of surface low pressure extends from
southern Quebec and into northern VT early this morning. The surface
low is expected to be in the vicinity of Cape Cod this
afternoon, and fairly quickly pull away from the southern New
England coast this evening. A mid level low will cross southern
Maine early this evening and also quickly pull away from the
coast tonight. A surface ridge will begin to build down into
Maine tonight. An area of rain will overspread the Central
Highlands and into Hancock County this morning, and taper to
showers and end this evening. Little/no rain expected north of
the Katahdin Region, and it looks like most of the rain will
also remain west of Washington County. Highs today will be
coolest where there is the densest cloud cover and rain from the
Central Highlands to southern Hancock County where highs will
only be around 50F. Milder to the north where areas north of
Houlton will likely reach the low 60s. Clouds will likely hold
in tonight with a light northeast flow and lows will mostly be
within a few degrees of 40F.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure will build over the area on Friday. However, we
will be on the edge of some moisture to our east wrapping back from
an upper low south of Nova Scotia. This will bring a partly to
mostly cloudy and seasonable day with inland highs in the mid to
upper 50s across the area. A thin ridge of high pressure will remain
over the area Friday night. The upper low to our southeast will be
moving away to the east. However, some moisture ahead of a weak
occlusion will begin to stray into the area bringing a partly to
mostly cloudy night. Weak high pressure will be nearby to our
northeast on Saturday as a bit of moisture continues to stray into
the area from the occlusion to our west. This will bring a partly to
mostly cloudy sky on Saturday. However, any showers should remain to
our west.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface high pressure and upper ridging will continue to slide to
our east on Sunday. A corridor of moisture supported by lift out
ahead of an upper trough lifting through the Great Lakes, and
surface convergence associated with an approaching occlusion, will
continue to very slowly approach Saturday night into Sunday. A few
showers may begin to move into the area Sunday afternoon as the
occlusion pushes in. However, both the surface occlusion and the
upper trough look rather weak and there are currently no signs of
any well organized precipitation. Scattered showers may last into
Sunday evening across most of the area, with scattered to isolated
showers over the north on Monday as the occlusion pushes east and a
weak upper trough remains north of the region.

Weak high pressure will return on Tuesday and last into Tuesday
night although some thin moisture will linger beneath an upper
trough centered well to our north. This will bring partial
cloudiness Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Our focus on Wednesday will turn to a new trough of low pressure and
surface occlusion pushing east from the Great Lakes region. The
upper trough is currently looking a bit disorganized with one low
just north of the Great Lakes and another low in the upper plains.
However, this one looks like it may carry a bit more moisture into
the area than the trough coming through over the weekend, bringing a
chance of showers late Wednesday or Thursday. Temperatures through
early next week should be near normal, to perhaps a few degrees
above normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: VFR at the Aroostook terminals today with possible
MVFR ceilings tonight. IFR to MVFR at the Downeast terminals
today with MVFR tonight. E/SE wind 5 to 10 knots becoming N/NE
tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Friday...VFR. Light NNE wind

Friday night...VFR. Light NE wind.

Saturday...VFR Light SE wind.

Saturday night...VFR, possibly dropping to MVFR late. Light SE wind.

Sunday...MVFR, possibly dropping to IFR late. S wind.

Sunday night...MVFR. S wind.

Monday...VFR. SW wind.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain well below small craft
advisory levels through tonight. Patchy fog at times today.

SHORT TERM:
Wind and seas are expected to be below SCA through the coming
weekend and early next week. Some humid air over the waters early
next week may produce some patchy fog or light mist.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...CB/Bloomer
Marine...CB/Bloomer