Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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085 FXUS61 KCAR 241640 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1240 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will exit to the east today. Low pressure will approach from the southwest Wednesday then track across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update...The biggest concern in the near term is the fire risk as detailed in the fire weather section below. Adjusted dew points downward for this afternoon`s forecast and raised Bangor`s forecast high to 70F. This is the warmest high since Oct 16 last fall. Sea breeze processes...already affecting coastal Hancock and Washington counties...will limit much further increase in Bangor`s temperature this afternoon. Previous Discussion... High pressure will exit to the east today through tonight. Mostly sunny skies are expected across the region today. The return flow around exiting high pressure will draw moisture across the region from low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Clouds will increase across the forecast area tonight. High temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 60s across much of the forecast area, with around 60 to the lower 60s along the Downeast coast with onshore winds. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from around 40 to the lower 40s across the forecast area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure is expected to develop over the Mid Atlantic states Wednesday morning. At the same time a strong upper level low will approach New England from the west. Both systems are then expected to move across Maine Later Wednesday into Wednesday night then move to the northeast Thursday. The system is expected to produce significant amounts of precipitation across the region by early Thursday. All of the precipitation is expected to be in the form of rain. Will use a blend of the Nam and Gfs for this time period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Weak high pressure is expected build across the region Friday. Low pressure is then expected to develop along the Mid Atlantic Coast later Friday then move northeast across New England Friday night into Saturday morning. This system is expected to bring more rain to the region. Strong high pressure system will then build in from the west Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region today through tonight. Low level wind shear will remain a concern early this morning. SHORT TERM: Expect MVFR/IFR conditions Wednesday and Thursday. VFR conditions Friday then MVFR conditions Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Generally expect winds/seas to remain below small craft advisory levels today through tonight. However, a few gusts could approach small craft advisory levels early tonight. SHORT TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs for sustained winds. For Waves: A southeasterly fetch is expected to develop across the Gulf of Maine Wednesday into Thursday. Expect waves to build to around 10 feet/9 seconds off-shore by Thursday morning. Southeasterly swell is then expected to slowly subside on Friday and Saturday. Will use NWPS to initialize the waves.Total Water Level: Will use ESTOFS for surge with southerly wind event expected Wednesday. Will keep 0.20 Base Tide Anomaly through Wednesday then increase to 0.90 Friday night. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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Low humidity, dry fine fuels, and occasionally gusty SW winds raised the Maine Forest Service fire danger risk to moderate in the southern half of the forecast area. In this area, snow cover is mostly gone. Numerous fires occurred yesterday and several have already been reported today. All of this prompted a Special Weather Statement for the increased risk...issued in collaboration with NWS Gray and the Maine Forest Service. Rain, clouds, and cooler temperatures will reduce the risk for tomorrow.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... There remains a limited threat of ice jams where ice remains on the northern rivers. Most of the ice has been flushed out on the Aroostook, with more extensive areas of ice on the Saint John and Allagash, but even on these rivers there are wide areas that are mainly ice free. The combination of significant snowmelt this week and rainfall Wednesday and Thursday will cause the larger rivers to rise significantly this week and could reach bankfull by late in the week into next weekend. It remains uncertain if there will be any flooding, but at this time it would appear if there is flooding that it would be minor, but we will continue to closely monitor the situation. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/MCW Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Norcross/MCW/Mignone Marine...Norcross/MCW/Mignone Fire Weather...MCW Hydrology...

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