Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201302 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 902 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure east of the Maritimes will continue to move east and away today and tonight. High pressure will slowly build in from the west over the weekend and crest over the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Update 9:00 AM: Have adjusted temperature, wind, and dew points based on latest observations. Previous discussion: Water vapor satellite pictures show an upper low across Maine early this morning. The low will pull away into the western Maritimes later this morning, and is expected to lift north of Newfoundland by 12Z Sat. Northern and eastern Maine will remain in the cyclonic flow aloft around the departing low through tonight. Scattered showers are expected today with the showers to become more isolated tonight. The showers may take the form of rain or snow this morning, with mainly rain showers this afternoon and evening. isolated rain or snow showers are possible late this evening and overnight, mainly across northern areas and the mountains. It will be breezy today with a decent pressure gradient and fairly steep lapse rates in the lowest few thousand feet. Wind gusts to around 25 mph are expected today. Highs today will range from around 40F in the north to the mid to upper 40s Downeast. Lows tonight are expected to be in the m/u 20s north to the low to mid 30s toward the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure both surface and aloft will be centered near Newfoundland Saturday morning as a large high begins to build in from the Great Lakes region. Saturday will remain mostly cloudy as we stay in the southwestern corner of wrap around moisture from the low to our northeast. Soundings show a dry layer just above 6k ft late Saturday which may mix out some of the clouds late in the day allowing for some breaks of sunshine late Saturday afternoon. The sky should gradually clear Saturday night. High pressure building in on Sunday will then bring a mostly sunny day with a milder afternoon. The high will maintain clear weather Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper level ridging will build over the area Monday as surface high pressure slides to our south. A return flow around the high will bring warmer air into the region on Monday with highs reaching the 50s throughout the area. Clear weather will persist Monday night. A strengthening return flow behind the high to our south will then bring even warmer air into the region Tuesday with temps taking a run for 60 in most areas under a mostly sunny sky. Our attention during the middle of the week then turns to a storm system developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will bring increasing clouds Tuesday night into Wednesday with a chance for rain moving up from the south late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Occasional rain may continue Thursday with clouds and showers lingering through the end of the week as the low slowly lifts north across the area. This will be a warmer storm than recent storms no risk of frozen precipitation, and temps in the 50s likely producing some fog over the colder surfaces. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR with areas of LIFR this morning from KHUL north in low clouds and light rain and snow. Conditions at the northern terminals are expected to improve to MVFR by late this morning, and to mainly VFR this evening, although some pockets of local MVFR may continue into tonight. Predominately VFR at KBGR and KBHB, but MVFR ceilings are possible at times today in -shra. SHORT TERM: A few sites may be MVFR early Saturday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected from midday Saturday through at least Tuesday as high pressure builds in. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA from Saturday through early next week as high pressure builds over the region. && .HYDROLOGY... River rises will slow into the weekend with cool weather. A big warm up is expected next week with highs in the 50s and 60s by Tuesday. Some ice movement is still likely the next few days on the northern rivers as much of the ice is rotting out and fairly easy to move. Anytime ice is on the move there is the potential for an ice jam, and localized flooding. A bigger flush of the ice is expected next week with the warm weather, and this will increase the chance of ice jams until all of the ice has been flushed out of the rivers. The main concerns are on the northern rivers such as the Aroostook, Saint John, and Allagash. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone

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