Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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015 FXUS61 KCAR 221318 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 918 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track south of the Gulf of Maine and over far eastern Nova Scotia today then continue on toward Newfoundland tonight. A large ridge of high pressure will build into eastern Canada this weekend and crest over our region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 9am update... The initial band of snow is currently over the Bangor and Down East regions and tending to weaken as it moves into drier air. A shortwave rotating into Nova Scotia is expected to rotate towards the Bay of Fundy and add some reinforcing moisture towards coastal Washington County...where a grand total of over 4 inches could fall for this storm. The good news is that shortwave rotating into Nova Scotia is far enough north to mitigate all earlier concerns about much heavier amounts. North of Bangor, Hancock County, and Washington County, snow amounts have been reduced to a trace or less. Will maintain the current advisories. Orgnl Disc: For now, no chgs to the current wntr wx adv area for sn/blsn currently ovr all of Hancock and Washington counties til 4 pm. Of all of the 00z dtmnstc models, only the ECMWF gives sufficient QPF thru the 18-00z tm frame tdy to result in snfl to warrant the adv ovr this ptn of the FA. Most of the others now keep better banding of snfl just S of SE ME, so there is a chc we may be to canx advs for part or all of th wntr wx advs early. Also, practically all models do not get the leading nrn edge of snfl past a Mars Hill- rn Baxter St Park line erly this aftn before sn retreats ewrd into NB prov late this aftn. This lead us to lower PoPs a little to chc or less across the NW and far NE with little mention of accumulation. In any event, whats left of steady snfl should be exiting into NB prov by late aftn leaving sct sn shwrs N and Cntrl and sct rn/sn shwrs Downeast with all shwrs ending this eve as winds subside and skies partially clear by erly Fri morn. Hi temps tdy will be a little below avg for this tm of season due to cld cvr and potential snfl with abv avg ovrngt lows with initially little in the way of colder air behind the departing low. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure will be tracking up across Newfoundland on Friday as the upper trough progresses through the northeast. An upper low embedded within the trough will be dropping south into New York state Friday while a small shortwave ridge east of that low pushes across our area. This should allow partial sunshine with seasonable high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. A strong ridge of high pressure will begin building into east central Canada on Saturday while a trough over the Maritimes hangs back across our region. Some moisture embedded within the trough combined with an upper shortwave low dropping south, just to our west, may produce snow showers Saturday. Some briefly heavier snow squalls producing a quick inch of snow in some central and northern spots are possible during the midday and afternoon as some instability develops in the low levels. The snow showers may also be supported by an inverted trough extending north through the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Snow showers should taper off Saturday night as the trough drops south of the region. A strong, deep ridge of high pressure will then build down from Canada on Sunday bringing clearing from north to south across the area. Clear skies and bright sunny days can then be expected Sunday night through Tuesday as the high crests over the area. Temperatures will be near normal Monday then a few degrees above normal on Tuesday. The ridge is then expected to break down on Wednesday as a weak frontal system pushes in from the west bringing increasing clouds with a chance for snow or rain showers. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: TAF sites from KBHB to KHUL will transition to IFR ovr the course of the morn in sn/blsn then remain so into the erly to mid aftn before improving back MVFR late this aftn in sct sn shwrs and then to VFR tngt as sn shwrs end and clgs lift. Nrn TAF sites will begin VFR erly this morn, then potentially transition to MVFR in intermittent lgt sn/blsn late this morn contg into the aftn before improving to VFR tngt. KFVE may cont to have MVFR clgs into the ovrngt. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are likely Friday into Friday night. MVFR to occasionally IFR conditions in snow showers are likely Saturday. Conditions should improve to VFR across the north Saturday night then over the rest of the area Sunday. VFR conditions in clear skies are expected Sunday night into Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Gale wrngs cont across our waters with a transition to an SCA xpctd some time this eve as winds subside. Went about 2 to 3 ft abv the WW3/NWPS guidance blend for tdy, merging closer to guidance late tngt. Vsbys will ocnly be less than 1 nm attms due to falling sn spcly this morn into the midday hrs, with vsbys improving this aftn and tngt as precip becomes shwry and then ends. SHORT TERM: A SCA may be needed Friday morning for north winds gusting up to 25 kt. Winds should then be below SCA Friday afternoon into Saturday, then increasing to SCA in northeast winds gusting up to 25 or 30 kt Saturday night into Sunday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MEZ017-029-030. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...VJN/Bloomer Marine...VJN/Bloomer is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.