Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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204 FXUS61 KCAR 170957 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 557 AM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will slowly cross the area today into tonight then exit into the Maritimes on Wednesday. A new low will develop to our south on Thursday then track toward Nova Scotia Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6 AM Update...Some freezing rain continues across parts of northern Aroostook County. Extended the winter weather advisory over the north until 8 AM, at which time the insolation and warm advection should transition precipitation to plain rain showers. The winter weather advisory was allowed to expire further south. Low pressure extends from southern Quebec and into the CT River Valley early this morning. One low center will remain across southern Quebec into tonight as a second center tracks across western Maine today and over northern Maine this evening. By Wednesday morning low pressure is expected be over the Gaspe Bay Peninsula with a trough extending across the Saint Lawrence River Valley. An occluded front will move across the Downeast region this morning and into the Saint John Valley by this evening. The cold air that has been difficult to displace due to a strong but weakening high to the north. The high will finally get nudged out of the region today. The Downeast Region will remain cloudy today with rain early this morning to taper to scattered showers and some patchy drizzle and fog during the morning. Steadier rain to the north will taper back to scattered showers this afternoon. There are still a number of spots across the northern half of the cwa with temperatures at or a little below freezing with a few reports of icy spots on social media early this morning. Will extend the winter weather advisory for just the northern tier of zones until 6 am, and expect that it is unlikely it will need to be extended any further. Strong wind in spots along the gusts with a few spots with gusts to 50+ mph. Will cancel the advisory for interior Downeast/Bangor, but will keep the advisory going until its expiration time of 5 am along the coast. The core of the strong jet will be moving east of the area between 3-6 am this morning. Temperatures will be much milder this afternoon with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s in the Bangor Region, and should moderate back to near 40F in the Saint John Valley. Tonight will be mainly cloudy as a nearly vertically stacked low begins to lift north of the area. A few showers are expected and with cooling aloft with the upper low and loss of daytime heating a few wet snow showers are possible later at night with little/no accums. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 30s across the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper level low pressure will be over the area Wednesday while surface low pressure begins to slide into the Maritimes. This will bring a cloudy sky with a few scattered showers. The low will move away Wednesday night and a weak ridge of high pressure will briefly slide across the region early Thursday. However, moisture in the low levels is expected to result in a mostly cloudy sky on Thursday. A new upper level trough of low pressure will quickly slide in during the day Thursday developing a new area of low pressure south of New England. This low will quickly track northeast toward Nova Scotia Thursday evening as it pulls cold air south into its circulation. This will spread snow across the area Thursday night, except for the Downeast coast where rain is likely. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Snow will continue into Friday morning over central and northern areas with a light to moderate accumulation of wet snow likely by Friday morning. Wet snow amounts of 2 to 3 inches look likely over much of the central and northern areas as a preliminary estimate. Snow showers may continue over the north into Friday afternoon. The low will move away into the Maritimes Friday night into Saturday and partial clearing is possible across the area Saturday afternoon. A warm ridge of high pressure is then expected to bring sunny, milder, drier weather through early next week. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Predominately IFR today and tonight at the northern terminals from KHUL to KFVE. IFR at the Downeast terminals is expected to improve to MVFR by later this afternoon or evening, and perhaps to VFR by later tonight. LLWS is expected early this morning. SHORT TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds are expected Wednesday into Wednesday night, with conditions possibly improving to MVFR Downeast late Wednesday night. MVFR conditions Thursday morning will lower to IFR late Thursday afternoon then be IFR in snow and mixed precipitation Thursday night. IFR conditions Friday morning may improve to MVFR Friday afternoon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Gales early this morning will ease today, but a small craft advisory will be needed through tonight, mainly for seas. It is possible that conditions may lower to below sca levels on the intra-coastal waters after midnight tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds are expected to be below SCA Wednesday into Wednesday night. Winds may increase to SCA on Thursday as low pressure lifts northeast toward the Gulf of Maine. A SCA is possible Thursday night into Friday as low pressure lifts northeast across Nova Scotia. && .HYDROLOGY... Rivers will be on the rise this week due to the combination of rain and snowmelt in the north, and rain in the south. Open water flooding appears unlikely. The main concern will be on the northern rivers, i.e. the Saint John, Aroostook, and Allagash Rivers that still have significant ice. The rising waters levels will cause the ice to break up later this week and could lead to the potential for ice jams, and possible localized ice jam flooding. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MEZ001- 002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...CB/Bloomer Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...CB/Bloomer Marine...CB/Bloomer Hydrology...CB

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