Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 240820 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 420 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds into the region today through Tuesday. A warm front crosses the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. Low pressure will approach later Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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With the strong low pressure system pushing further into the Canadian Maritimes this morning, high pressure will begin to return to the forecast area today, leading to clearing skies. The pressure gradient between the departing low and incoming high will lead to gusty winds persisting into the afternoon hours. Gusty winds may pick up recent snowfall through the early morning hours across the north, which could produce rapidly decreasing visibilities. As the day progresses and the snow begins to age, the threat for lofted snow will decrease, but gusty winds will still be capable of creating drifts, which could impact cleanup operations well into the afternoon hours. Cold air advecting in around the backside of the low will keep temperatures below freezing this morning, which may lead to the refreeze of any wet, untreated surfaces, especially across the Downeast region where previous rain and freezing rain fell and mixed with snow and sleet. Temperatures will gradually warm through the day as CAA declines and skies begin to clear, allowing for increased incoming solar radiation to the surface. High temperatures today will lift into the mid 30s Downeast and the lower 30s across the north. Winds will become light and variable through the night tonight, and coupled with mostly clear skies across the north and a fresh snowpack, radiational cooling will lead to temperatures falling into the lower single digits above zero across the north. Downeast, lingering cloud cover from the backside of the departing low pressure along with weak downsloping winds will be enough to keep low temperatures in the teens to lower 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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The high pressure system centered to the north over Quebec will continue to influence the area through Monday. Though mostly sunny skies are expected, E flow will bring cooler air into the region, which will keep temps in the 30s. By Monday night, clouds will start to creep into the south, which will help keep temps in the 20s while the north will see temps drop into the teens. By Tuesday, weak shortwave energy moving northward off an inverted trof should increase clouds and push rain into Downeast. By the afternoon, the rain should continue to move north, with the warmer air brought in with the tropical moisture. Expect temps nearing 40. By Tuesday night, a large low pressure system over the Great Lakes is expected to phase with the shortwave increasing chances of rain, especially in the north. Expect temps in the 30s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A large low pressure system over the Great Lakes is expected to swing a frontal boundary through the area Wednesday through Thursday. Rain is expected to continue, but models do have inconsistency with the ending of the rain, so decreased chances from the NBM. A low pressure system developing of the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states is expected to move north and over the waters by Friday, then moving out by Saturday. However, the models are very inconsistent with the QPF placement and track of the system. Decreased precip chances across the region.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Brief LLWS possible across all Downeast terminals through the early morning hours just prior to 12z. Rapid improvement to VFR from SW to NE this morning as precip exits the area. Winds becoming NW 10 to 20 kts with gusts 25 to 30 kts early, then diminishing through the afternoon. VFR conditions will continue through the night tonight, while winds become light and variable in the north and northerly around 5 kts Downeast. SHORT TERM: Monday through Tuesday...VFR. North/northeast winds around 10 knots. Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow north, with a chance of rain and snow Downeast. East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Wednesday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR. A chance of snow and rain. East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable. Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR. Rain likely. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Thursday...VFR/MVFR, then MVFR/IFR. A chance of rain. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: The Gale Warning remains in place through today and tonight with winds gusting 35 to 40 kts early this morning, becoming gusts to 35 kts on the coastal waters early tonight. Winds will decrease further over the intracoastal waters, potentially reaching SCA levels late this morning. Seas will remain 8 to 10 ft through most of the day today, gradually diminishing into the night tonight as high pressure builds over the waters. SHORT TERM: A Gale Warning remains in effect for all waters through Monday. Gale force winds are possible for the outer waters Monday night into Tuesday with SCA for intercoastal. By Tuesday night, winds should decrease to SCA levels. Though winds should decrease below SCA levels on Wednesday, seas 5-6 ft should remain SCA until Wednesday night.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...AStrauser Short Term...LaFlash Long Term...LaFlash Aviation...AStrauser/LaFlash Marine...AStrauser/LaFlash

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