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000
FXUS61 KCAR 141024
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
624 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low moves through the area today, followed by another low
tonight through early Monday morning. A weak front then crosses
the area into early Tuesday. High pressure builds in later
Tuesday through Thursday, while a warm front approaches late
Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6:24AM Update...Showers ending across with mainly cloudy skies
and a few sunny breaks with the rising sun. No major changes to
the ongoing forecast...

Previous Discussion...
500mb shortwave is pivoting east of the area this morning
bringing an end to isolated and scattered shower activity. A
couple more hours of showers expected as noted by the echos on
the CBW radar which is associated with the back side of the
shortwave. Weak surface ridging expected today which will allow
for a mostly dry day with breezy westerly winds 10-20mph and a
few higher gusts possible. There will be a lot of clouds but
some sunny breaks with more sunshine in the Greater Bangor area
to the Downeast coast. Temperatures climb up into the low 50s
across the north from Moosehead to Baxter points northward.
Across the Central Highlands and Downeast coast expected mid to
upper 50s with Bangor perhaps very close to 60F. Decent
downslope mixing over the Central Highlands of Penobscot,
Piscataquis and southern Aroostook will allow Minimum RH values
to drop into the 35-40% range.

Tonight another piece of 500mb energy transitions eastward
through the long wave trof and another weak boundary heads for
Maine. This will allow for more scattered showers to develop
from west to east through the night. Light winds shift SW ahead
of the approaching boundary. Showers taper off from SW to NE
through the early morning but still expecting some across the
north tomorrow early morning. In the North Woods temperatures in
the mid 30s allow for some wet snow flakes to mix in especially
in the coldest spots. Temperatures tonight in the wake of the
boundary passing expect to bottom out in the mid 30s north with
low 40s south.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A broad upper level trough continues to sit over eastern Canada
and down through the New England states through the first half
of the upcoming work week. With this large area of instability,
afternoon convective showers become a possibility. Forecast
PWATs are expected to approach 0.5 inches in the forecast area,
which is above average for this time of the year. Since there
remains available moisture and a source of instability, isolated
to scattered rain showers are possible each afternoon on Monday
and Tuesday. However, the main trigger for these showers will be
diurnal heating, so showers are likely to reduce in number or
fade out completely each night.

High temperatures through the first half of the work week are
expected to rise into the mid 50s, while lows fall into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A narrow ridge of high pressure will begin to work into the area
on Wednesday, reducing the threat for precipitation Wednesday
into the day on Thursday. Skies may clear out underneath the
subsidence of this high pressure.

Another trough of low pressure will approach from the west
Thursday into Friday, bringing the threat for the next round of
rain into the area. However, the most recent model trends have
been slowing the approach of this low, with a trend towards a
stronger ridge of high pressure Wednesday into Thursday. The
longer it takes the occluded system to make its way into our
area, the greater chance it will have to begin to break down, so
the forecast at this time is scattered to numerous rain showers,
particularly over the north, closer to the center of the
occluded low. This threat for precip could decrease if the high
pressure continues to trend stronger, or there could be a better
chance for a widespread wetting rain should the ridge of high
pressure shift further east prior to the low approaching
northern New England.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR this morning becoming mainly VFR today. W
winds 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt. Tonight, expect -SHRA and
low end VFR or MVFR cigs. SW winds 5-10kt shifting W by 12z
tomorrow.

SHORT TERM:
Mon - Mon night: Improving to VFR across all terminals. Rain
showers possible. W winds 5 to 10 kts.

Tues: VFR across all terminals, though brief MVFR/IFR possible
over northern terminals in -SHRA. W winds 5 to 10 kts gusting
to 20 kts.

Tues night - Thurs: VFR across all terminals with cigs trending
towards SKC. NW winds 5 to 10 kts shifting NE to E on Thurs.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory continues on the Coastal Waters
out 25nm for the entire near term. Winds gusting 25-30kt today
into this evening. Long period (10sec) SE swells generally
6-9ft today. Long period (9-10sec) SE swells continue to subside
tonight and down to generally 4-6ft. On the Intra-Coastal Waters
winds generally less than 20kt. Seas generally 2-4ft today and
into tonight. Scattered showers and patchy fog may reduce vsby
tonight.

SHORT TERM: Seas 5 to 7 ft will continue over the coastal waters
into Monday afternoon, before waves decrease below 5 ft and the
SCA expires. Seas 2 to 4 ft on the intracoastal waters. Winds
will remain below 25 kts through the middle of the week, with
gusts occasionally approaching 20 kts in rounds of rain showers
through Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Sinko
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Sinko/AStrauser
Marine...Sinko/AStrauser