Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 190304 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1104 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will slowly move northeast away from the region across the Maritimes tonight. A new area of low pressure will develop to our south on Thursday and track across Nova Scotia Thursday night and the northern Maritimes on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Update... A trof will remain across the region overnight. Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers will occur across central and northern areas through early morning. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly cloudy across the forecast area overnight. Low temperatures will range from around 30 to the lower 30s north, to the lower to mid 30s interior Downeast with mid 30s along the Downeast coast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with overnight temperatures, cloud cover and rain/snow shower chances. Have also transitioned the Small Craft Advisory to a Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas with this update. Previous Discussion... Low pressure is expected to develop to the south of New England Thursday morning then move northeast across the outer Gulf of Maine Thursday night. This will result in a snow or rain across much of the area. The precipitation type will be mostly diurnally driven. Will use the precipitation type from thickness tool run on a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs. Snow accumulation from snow ratio.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Whats left of steady lgt sn erly Fri morn will taper to sct rn/sn shwrs late Fri morn and then sct rn shwrs Fri aftn as sfc low pres moves ENE away from the region alg the S shore of Nova Scotia and the upper low crosses the Rgn. Little in the way of sn accumulation is xpctd durg the morn as Sfc-BL layer temps rise abv fzg and strong late Apr background insolation keeps lgt sn rates from amounting to much on surfaces, spcly roadways which will likely only be wet durg this tm. Whats left of any rn or rn/sn shwrs Fri eve will msly end late Fri ngt, leaving msly cldy skies across the Rgn Sat as the upper trof only slowly exits the FA. Skies will then slowly clr from W to E across the FA Sat ngt with a contd NW breeze as sfc hi pres ovr Wrn QB begins to exert more influence ovr our Rgn. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... With more in the way of sunshine on Sun, aftn hi temps will begin a slowly recovery to more spring like values of mid to upper 40s N to lower 50s Downeast, albeit under still somewhat breezy conditions. More substantial improvement in temps with lgtr winds then occurs Mon and again on Tue as mdtly strong upper ridging from Cntrl Can and great lakes begins to apch our FA with contd msly clr skies. By Tue, most low trrn lctns N of the immediate coast will be near or just abv 60 deg F for aftn hi temps, with coastal areas cooler due to a sea breeze. Wed will cont be quite mild, cldnss will begin to increase from the SW durg the aftn as low pres and associated s/wv begin to apch from the OH vly, with rn movg into the Rgn from SW to NE by late Wed ngt. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR conditions are expected across the north and mountains overnight, with generally VFR conditions Downeast. MVFR conditions will develop across the entire region Thursday, with IFR conditions also possible during the afternoon Downeast. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected across the entire region Thursday night. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR clgs and ocnl vsbys with sn and rn shwrs will prevail across our TAF sites Fri into Fri eve with a brief pd of IFR vsbys in steady lgt sn possible across Nrn TAF sites Fri morn, then improve SW to NE across the Rgn to VFR late Fri ngt into Sat morn and then cont VFR all TAF sites thru Mon.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Have transitioned the Small Craft Advisory to a Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas with this update. The Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas is in effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters, overnight into Thursday morning. Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs for sustained winds Thursday. Waves: Primary wave system is long period southerly swell From Monday storm event(8 feet/9 seconds) with a secondary southwesterly wind wave. Expect the southerly swell system to slowly subside tonight into Thursday morning with wave heights falling to below SCA by 1500Z, so will remove the intracoastal zone from SCA and keep outer waters in SCA. Have used the 1200Z NWPS run to initialize the wave grids. Boundary conditions for NWPS look reasonable. For Total Water Level: Post surge still significant, was around 1 foot from last high tide cycle so will adjust and slowly decrease surge model bias over next 2 to 3 days using the anomaly grid. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Initially winds and seas will be just below SCA thresholds Fri ovr our outer MZs050-051...but will cont to subside further below SCA thresholds ovr the weekend and cont below SCA thresholds for all our waters into early next week. Went with a blend of WW3 and NWPS guidance for fcst wv hts for these ptns of the fcst. Primary wv pds will initially be arnd 10 sec on Fri and Fri ngt with SE swell, diminishing to arnd 5 sec durg the day Sat and contg so into erly next week.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ Near Term...Norcross/Mignone Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Norcross/VJN Marine...Norcross/Mignone/VJN

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