Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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970 FXUS61 KCAR 260213 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1013 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will approach from the southwest overnight and track west of our area on Thursday. The low will continue north into Eastern Canada Thursday night as high pressure returns. Another low will approach on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 10pm update...Increased pops, dew points and temps for the overnight hours. Increased coverage for areas of fog tonight and tomorrow. These higher dew points and fog will accelerate snow melt tonight into tomorrow. The dominant concern here continues to be the flooding potential. The approaching low is bringing quite a bit of moisture and warmth that will melt a considerable snow pack remaining north of the Katahdin region. Snow water equivalent was as high as 8 inches at Winterville yesterday and most or all of it will melt in the next few days. Thus rivers will be on the rise into Saturday. The first rivers that will garner attention Thursday morning will be in the hills of Piscataquis County to include the Piscataquis River. These rivers will have the faster response to the rainfall with this river cresting early Thursday afternoon. Motorists will need to exercise caution for flooded roads Thursday. Previous discussion...Rain ahead of low pressure approaching from the Mid- Atlantic region will spread north across the area this evening and continue overnight. The low center is expected to lift to our west later tonight into Thursday allowing warmer and more moist air to be pulled north across our area. Fog will likely developing Downeast late this evening, and then across the north late tonight as the increasingly humid air gets pulled north over colder surfaces. Rain will taper off from south to north on Thursday as the low, tracking to our west, lifts north and drier air gets pulled in south of the low. Forecast rainfall amounts vary considerably between the models with close to 2 inches forecast over the north and just over 2 inches Downeast on the NAM, and around 1 inch over the north and 3 inches Downeast on the GFS. Will keep just over an inch across the north and just over 2 inches Downeast in the forecast. Rainfall combined with water released from snow melt will result in significant rises on the rivers through Thursday. However, the rivers, even across the north, are now open so ice jams are not expected to impact the rivers. The sky will likely remain mostly cloudy over the north and partially clear Downeast Thursday afternoon. Some showers are then possible late Thursday afternoon, especially over western locations, as the upper low swings into the area. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A flood watch has been posted through Saturday afternoon for northern and central areas. Expect steady rainfall to end Thursday evening as the surface and upper lows exit to the northeast. Mainly cloudy skies with a few lingering showers can be expected across the north Thursday night, with partial clearing across central and downeast. Thought about adding patchy fog Thursday night but think there should be enough of a west gradient to preclude the threat of any patchy fog. Lows Thursday night will drop into the 40s most areas. Friday will start out as a dry day before clouds and showers associated with another weak low from the mid atlantic overspreads the area late in the day and continues into Friday evening. Rainfall amounts with this system area expected to be light, generally a tenth to a third of an inch. Highs on Friday are expected to be in the low 60s across the region, with lows Friday night in the 40s. Saturday will see continued unsettled conditions as a weak disturbance in advance of an upper low to our west brings the continued chance for showers. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid 50s to around 60. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... It remains unsettled Saturday night through Sunday as the upper low to our west drifts across the area. Expect a continued chance for showers at times. Lows Saturday night will fall into the mid 30s to around 40 north and lower 40s elsewhere. Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s north and mid to upper 50s central and downeast. Expect much warmer and mainly dry weather for the beginning of the work week with high temperatures climbing to well above normal levels by the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Conditions are expected to drop to MVFR then IFR this evening as rain and lower clouds spread from south to north. IFR conditions are expected overnight tonight into Thursday morning. Conditions may return to MVFR then VFR Downeast Thursday afternoon and improve to MVFR over the north. SHORT TERM: Generally VFR conditions can be expected through the period, although scattered showers can be expected from time to time Thursday night through Sunday with brief MVFR conditions possible in any showers. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: South winds are expected to increase to SCA with gusts up to 30 kt tonight into Thursday morning, and seas are expected to build up to 12 ft. Winds should drop below SCA by midday Thursday but seas will remain up to 10 ft in response to the southerly overnight into Thursday morning. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions may persist Thursday night through Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... A flood watch has been issued for Downeast from late tonight into Thursday afternoon and across the north from Thursday morning through Saturday. The watch for Downeast is mainly for responses of small streams and rivers to the heavy rainfall overnight which may approach 2 inches in some areas. The watch across the north is for the larger rivers response to combined snow melt and rainfall. The rivers are projected to steadily rise into early this weekend and may approach flood stage by Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT Thursday through Saturday afternoon for MEZ001>006-010-011-031. Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday afternoon for MEZ015>017-029-030-032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/MCW Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...Bloomer/MCW/Duda Marine...Bloomer/MCW/Duda Hydrology...

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