Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 210215 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1015 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west overnight through Monday. A warm front will cross the region Tuesday followed by a cold front for late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Canadian high pressure will then build toward the region Wednesday afternoon and night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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1015 PM Update... Temps are dropping off steadily w/some low lying areas such as PQI and HUL down in the mid 40s. Clayton Lake(K40B) was also down around 44 degrees. Satl imagery showed skies clearing nicely. Winds have dropped off significantly w/the higher terrain still showing a breeze. Frenchville was carry a NW wind at 10 mph the last hr. Some low lying areas could very well see mid to upper 30s by sunrise. Will make adjustments w/the overnight low to account for colder temps in valley locations. No other chgs. See marine section below. Previous Discussion... Monday is shaping up as a dry day with the biggest concern being the gusty northwest winds and fire weather potential. The greatest mixing potential looks to be across the north where we could see gusts up to 35 mph at times. Will address in Fire Weather section below. Highs on Monday will range from the mid to upper 60s north and mid 60s to lower 70s downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Fast Zonal WNW Aloft Flow Regime Will Continue. Mon ngt will begin fair with dissipating winds in the eve. This will allow some radiational cooling spcly across the NE where they may be patchy vly late ngt frost. Clds will then increase late Mon ngt with the apch of a warm front from the W...meaning that temps may begin rising prior to day light across out FA. Skies will then be ptly to msly cldy on Tue with sct aftn/eve shwrs due to deep layer warm advcn and the passage of an upper lvl s/wv. On Wed, a cold front from Nrn Can will bring a renewed sct aftn/erly eve shwr potential. With little if any in the way of MUCAPE both days, the potential for thunder is considered to be to low to add to the fcst attm. Both hi temps Tue and ovrngt lows Tue ngt will be milder than Mon. Clrg skies are then xpctd from NW to SE ovrngt Wed with diminishing winds and cooler ovrngt lows.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Thu will begin fair, but another fast movg s/wv in a cont`d NW flow regime will bring increasing cldnss Thu aftn with a chc of shwrs late in the day thru Thu ngt and perhaps even into Fri. After fair conditions Fri ngt thru Sat, clds will increase Sat ngt ahead of a potentially regime chgng s/wv complex from the midwest that could bring the next chc of shwrs to the rgn on Sun. Overall, temps will be near normal for the long rang pd. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected through Monday. The main weather concern will be the potential for northwest wind gusts to 35 kts at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI. SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR all TAF sites xcpt perhaps brief MVFR clgs/vsbys with any heavier rn shwr both Tue and Wed aftn/erly eve. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Update...Dropped the SCA this evening as seas are dropping below 6 ft and winds are down < 10 kts. Not looking for any headlines through MOnday. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No wind/sea hdlns anticipated for these ptns of the marine fcst attm. Went with about 80 to 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts. Fcst primary wv pds will be swell type arnd 10 sec with a secondary short wind fetch pd of arnd 5 to 7 sec.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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