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000
FXUS61 KCAR 191514
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1114 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure begins to move east of the region today. An
occluded front approaches tonight, crosses the region Saturday,
then exits across the Maritimes Sunday. A cold front crosses
the region Sunday night into Monday. High pressure then builds
across the region later Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure
approaches from the west Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update...
Surface/upper level ridging begins to move east of the region
today, with an occluded front approaching western New England
late. An area of clouds will move east across the forecast area
today in advance of the occlusion. Across western portions of
the forecast area, expect a partly sunny morning with increasing
clouds this afternoon. Across eastern areas, expect a mostly
sunny morning with a mostly/partly sunny afternoon. High
temperatures will range from the mid 50s to around 60 north, to
the mid to upper 50s interior Downeast. However, increasing
onshore winds from the Gulf of Maine will keep cooler
temperatures along the Downeast coast where high temperatures
will generally range from around 50 to the lower 50s. Have
updated to adjust for current conditions along with expected
afternoon temperatures and clouds.

Previous Discussion...
As the front enters the area tonight, little precip is expected
as the initial shortwave energy will be well north of the
forecast area. However, a second shortwave rotating around the
base of the large scale upper trough in the Great Lakes region
will reinvigorate the front. Recent guidance has gained much
more consensus on the rapid development in a fairly narrow axis
from southern Penobscot County towards southern Aroostook
County. In this corridor, mid-lvl thermal packing quickly
increases late tonight with enhancements to lift and QPF. Still
not expecting more than a tenth or two of one inch of rainfall
by early Saturday morning.

Cloud cover and warm advection will limit lows tonight to the
lower 40s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front crosses the region on Saturday. QPF models
have increased rainfall amounts since the last model run with
accumulations nearing 0.5 inches across Downeast Saturday
morning. SW flow is expected to increase, especially in the
north due to the tightening pressure gradients near the
occlusion. Expect temps in the low 50s. By Saturday night, the
front will exit over the waters with a weak trof behind the
front assisting in some convective development in the south. All
rain showers should end after midnight with upper level ridging
moving in. Clouds should begin to clear later in the night,
dropping temps towards freezing.

By Sunday, another cold front approaches with shortwave energy
ahead of the front. Though weak, showers are expected across the
north, with possible snow showers in the North Woods in the
morning. Temps should be above normal in the 50s. By Sunday
night, the cold front will push through the region by late
night. The 925mb model temps show cold air advecting into the
region after midnight, thus a steady decrease through the night.
Due to the decreasing temps, any showers in the north should
switch to snow.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As the cold front exits over the waters on Monday, high pressure
should move in. Cold air from the front should keep temps below
normal. Though cloud cover should decrease to make for sunny
skies during the day, breezy W winds will mix the cold air down
keeping the north in the mid 30s and south in the mid 40s. The
next system is expected to move into the area by Wednesday.
Models are still inconsistent with the track and timing of the
system. The Canadian has the system much further north, while
GFS and Euro have the center of the system moving over the
state. Nevertheless, the models due agree on a tight temp
gradient moving through the region by Wednesday night through
Thursday, which will switch rain over to snow through the
Central Highlands and north. Snow is possible further south as
surface temps could fall to freezing. By next weekend, high
pressure should return.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected today through early tonight.
MVFR conditions with scattered showers or rain are then
expected later tonight. Tempo IFR ceilings are possible by early
Saturday morning. LLWS is expected after midnight with
southwesterly winds up to 45 kt at FL020.

SHORT TERM: Saturday...MVFR possible in showers. LLWS possible.
S winds 5-15 kts.

Saturday night...VFR. W winds around 5 kts.

Sunday...VFR south, MVFR north in rain showers. WSW winds 5-15
kts.

Sunday night-Monday...VFR, except chance MVFR SHSN Sunday night
north. NW wind gusts may approach 30 to 35 kt on Monday.

Monday night-Tuesday...VFR.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today
through tonight. Scattered showers later tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels until
briefly on Sunday night, with increased winds. Winds should
decrease again Monday morning, then increase Monday afternoon.
Winds return to SCA Tuesday afternoon, then decrease for the
night.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/MCW
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Norcross/MCW/LaFlash
Marine...Norcross/LaFlash