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000
FXUS61 KCAR 142231
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
631 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low moves through the area tonight through early Monday
morning. A weak cold front crosses the region Monday night. High
pressure approaches later Tuesday, then crosses the region
Wednesday through Thursday. An occluded front approaches
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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6:30 p.m. update....Clouds are increasing acros the forecast
area as the precip shield moves in from the west. This has
dampened any afternoon winds gusts expected with the heating of
the day, with the main impacts being aviation. Precip is
expected to move into the Greenville area and the Bangor region
over the next hour or so. Forecast has been updated to reflect
current conditions, including seas closer to 8 feet on the
outer waters.

Previous discussion...Dry conditions prevail over Northern and
Eastern Maine through the rest of the afternoon. A piece of
upper-level energy will move eastward and bring a weak boundary
across the area tonight. This will mean scattered to numerous
rain showers for tonight. The threat begins this evening for
most areas, but mainly after midnight for Northern Aroostook
County. A few snowflakes could mix in over the highest
elevations of the North, but no accumulation expected. With
light southerly winds ahead of the boundary, some patchy fog is
possible late tonight. Any fog will dissipate after sunrise
Monday morning as winds shift westerly. Low temperatures tonight
will be in the mid to upper 30s north of Katahdin, and lower
40s south.

Rain showers will come to an end in most of the area by early
Monday morning. However, with a 500mb trough remaining nearby,
some rain showers will remain possible in the North. The
greatest threat will be in the afternoon hours with the daytime
heating. An isolated rain shower is also possible late in the
day further south, but these will be very limited. High
temperatures will be in the 50s most places on Monday,
approaching 60 degrees near Bangor.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level low pressure remains north of Maine Monday night through
Tuesday, then begins to exit across the Maritimes Tuesday
night. Several disturbances rotating around the upper low will
cross the region Monday night into early Tuesday night. At the
surface, a cold front will also cross the region Monday night.
Isolated rain/snow showers are possible across northern areas
Monday night, with isolated rain showers Downeast. Otherwise,
expect partly/mostly cloudy skies across northern areas Monday
night, with partly cloudy skies Downeast. Expect partly/mostly
cloudy skies along with a slight chance of rain showers across
the north and mountains Tuesday, with partly cloudy skies
Downeast. Could still have the slight chance of a rain shower
across northern areas early Tuesday night. Otherwise, expect
partly cloudy skies across the region. High pressure builds
toward the region Wednesday with partly cloudy skies north,
mostly clear Downeast. Expect near normal, to slightly above
normal, level temperatures Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains across the region Wednesday night through
Thursday. A weakening occluded front should then begin to reach New
England later Thursday night. Expect mostly clear skies Wednesday
night, then partly cloudy Thursday. Uncertainty exists regarding how
rapidly the occlusion crosses the region late week. The occlusion
should weaken while encountering the surface/upper ridge across
the forecast area Thursday into Friday. The ridging will then
begin to exit across the Maritimes later Friday into Saturday.
Expect a chance of showers will accompany the occluded front
later Thursday into Friday. Uncertainty persists Saturday/Sunday
regarding a possible secondary cold front crossing the region,
and possible low pressure tracking to the south. Due to the
uncertainty have kept just a chance of showers for
Saturday, with a slight chance/chance Sunday. Near normal, to
slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Thursday
through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR at all terminals late this afternoon and early
this evening. Conditions deteriorate to MVFR after 03z with
-SHRA, then to IFR later tonight. BCFG possible, mainly at BHB. Cigs
 and vsby improve to MVFR early Monday morning. VFR for
 southern terminals Monday afternoon. VFR/MVFR at northern
 terminals Monday afternoon with VCSH. SW winds 10 kts through
 tonight. W winds 5-10 kts Monday.

SHORT TERM:
Monday night through Tuesday...VFR/MVFR north with a slight
chance of rain showers. Also a slight chance of snow showers
Monday night. VFR Downeast. A slight chance of rain showers
Monday night. Southwest/west winds around 10 knots Monday night.
West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots
Tuesday.

Tuesday night...VFR. Slight chance of a rain shower north early.
Northwest winds around 10 knots.

Wednesday through Thursday night...VFR. North/northwest winds 10 to
15 knots Wednesday. North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots
Wednesday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Thursday/Thursday
night.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain showers. Variable winds 5 to
10 knots, becoming south.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the
outer waters through early Monday afternoon due to wave heights
up to 8 feet. Seas will gradually subside Monday afternoon, but
the SCA may need to be extended with wave heights remaining at
borderline SCA levels through the day. Winds and seas stay below
SCA criteria on the intra-coastal waters through tonight and
Monday. Patchy fog may reduce visibility on the waters to 1-3
NM late tonight into early Monday morning.

SHORT TERM:  Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Monday
night through Wednesday. A slight chance of rain showers Monday
night.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Clark/LF
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Clark/LF/Norcross
Marine...Clark/LF/Norcross