Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 170916 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 516 AM EDT Thu May 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region today. High pressure will build across the region later today through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Low pressure exiting across the maritimes will draw a cold front south across the forecast area today. The cold front is located across northern Aroostook county early this morning. The front will move south across the remainder of the forecast area through the morning and afternoon. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers across northern areas this morning, with decreasing clouds this afternoon. Across central/Downeast portions of the forecast area, expect a mostly cloudy morning with decreasing clouds this afternoon. Onshore winds have also advected low clouds and fog inland from the Gulf of Maine. Have included areas of fog along with patchy drizzle Downeast this morning. High pressure will build across the region tonight with mostly clear skies. Have included areas of frost across northern areas tonight, with patchy frost across central and interior Downeast areas. Interior Downeast areas, where the growing season has already started, will have to be monitored for a possible frost advisory tonight. High temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 50s north, to the upper 60s interior Downeast with lower to mid 60s along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 20s to around 30 north, to the mid to upper 30s interior Downeast with upper 30s to around 40 along the Downeast coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Strong high pressure is expected to build in from the northwest Friday morning then crest over the region later in the day. The high will then move to the east Friday night. Clouds are expected to increase from the south during the day Saturday with rain spreading from south to north Saturday evening. Will use a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs for pops and QPF. The Superblend was used for temperature.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Low pressure will continue to move to the north and pass to the west of New England Saturday night into Sunday morning. As a result the rain will continue into Sunday then transition to showers Sunday evening as a cold front moves across the region. The showers are expected to end during the day Monday with a cooler air mass moving in. Another area of low pressure is expected to approach from the southwest Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across northern Aroostook county early this morning including KFVE, KCAR and KPQI. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible across central portion of the forecast area this morning including KHUL. IFR to VLIFR conditions will occur Downeast early this morning including KBGR and KBHB. Conditions will improve to VFR levels through the morning into early afternoon, from north to south, across the region. VFR conditions are then expected across the entire region from mid afternoon through tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected into Saturday morning then IFR conditions Saturday afternoon into Sunday. VFR conditions Monday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels today through tonight. Visibilities will be reduced in fog and drizzle into the afternoon. SHORT TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam/Gfs for winds. For Waves: Long period southerly swell is expected to be the primary wave system Friday (3 feet/8 seconds). This system will slowly subside to around 2 feet Friday night into Saturday. A new southerly fetch is expected to build across the Gulf of Maine later Saturday with southerly wind wave building Saturday night. Waves are expected to build to around 6 feet/8 seconds during the day Sunday. Will use NWPS to initialize the wave grids. Total Water Level: Will keep the Base Tide Anomaly around 0.20 feet for the next several days.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Norcross/Mignone Marine...Norcross/Mignone

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