Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 151308 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 908 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will remain over the Maritimes through the end of the week. A cold front will cross the region Friday night and usher in an unseasonably cold air mass this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9:00 AM Update...Snow showers are widespread across the area from the north down through the central part of the region and into northern Downeast locations, so increased pops further south over the region. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track this hour. Previous discussion...An upper low extends from the Gaspe Bay Peninsula to near Eastport, Maine early this morning. The low will lift north and into southern Labrador by 12Z Fri. The region will remain in cyclonic flow aloft around the low with snow showers expected today, mainly from Baxter State Park north to the Saint John Valley with local accumulations of around an inch. The HRRRE runs have been hinting that there could be a streamer off the Saint Lawrence this afternoon with a narrow band of heavier snow showers that may get enhanced with decent low to mid level instability, and this will need to be watched today. Any showers Downeast will be more isolated, and may take the form of rain or snow this afternoon. The snow showers in the north will wind down tonight, but an isolated shower is still possible. The clouds Downeast will begin to break up with the sky becoming partly cloudy. Highs today will range from the mid 30s in the north to near 40 degrees along the coast. Lows tonight will mostly be in the 20s, but where the clouds thin out a few spots could drop into the teens.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The model guidance is in good agreement through the short term period of the forecast. Wrap around precipitation will continue around a broad area of lower heights over the Gulf of St Lawrence extending back across western Maine. High pressure ridge build south from Hudson Bay to Virginia will continue to build south and east moving into western Maine Saturday evening. Troughs of lower pressure will move through Maine Saturday and early Sunday. By the end of the period Sunday morning the ridge will build across the state. Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool add to winds 20% over land, 26% for the coastal waters. Used GFS Guidance for QPF. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The extended models are in good agreement at the start of the period. A Canadian high pressure ridge will be crested over the region at the start of the period. The ridge will dominate the weather through Tuesday evening. A low pressure system will enter the North Atlantic along the coast of Virginia Tuesday morning and by Wednesday morning be SE of Cape Cod with its associated frontal system extending to the Downeast coast. By Wednesday evening the GFS/GEM/EC take differing tracks. The GFS moves the low to the east of Cape Cod, south of SW Nova Scotia, well south of the Gulf of Maine, it tucks the front along the Downeast coast and the coast of New Brunswick. The EC moves the low to Bar Harbor, with the front pushed into central Maine. The Gem takes the low and front east across the Atlantic well south of the Gulf of Maine. A compromise solution would be somewhere close to the GFS. Thursday morning the GFS/EC develop a new low along the coast of Virginia. The GEM shows a new low as well but east of the gulf stream. By the end of the period the GFS/EC show a new low deepening along the gulf stream as it moves north. Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool add to winds 20% over land, 26% for the coastal waters. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Predominately MVFR at the northern terminals through 12Z Friday with times of IFR and short intervals of LIFR as snow showers move across the region today. MVFR at the Downeast terminals will likely improve to VFR this afternoon with VFR expected tonight. SHORT TERM: MVFR with periods of IFR in snowshowers through the early Friday evening. Snowshower activity will be more frequent across northern and western Maine. Higher pressure will start building into Maine Friday clearing out the snowshowers and cloud cover Friday evening. VFR conditions Friday evening for BHB and BGR, extending to all other sites by Friday evening. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory remain in effect through tonight for a west wind of 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. SHORT TERM:A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed through the period. Winds and or Seas will be above SCA criteria through the period. && .CLIMATE... A 2-day total of 20.9" of snow was observed at Bangor, Maine on March 13-14, 2018. This is the 2nd highest 2-day total on record for the month of March. The record is 22.2" on March 13-14, 1984. The 20.9" ranks as the 12th greatest 2-day total on record at Bangor. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB/MCB Short Term...Norton Long Term...Norton Aviation...CB/Norton Marine...CB/Norton Climate...CB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.