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496
FXUS62 KCHS 030523
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
123 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast through
much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Similar to last night at this time the guidance is not handling
the initialization of any such fog. But unlike last night, there
isn`t as much agreement on how much fog and particularly dense
fog will occur. The biggest changes are that it didn`t rain
during the previous day, there is a light onshore flow, and
there was already quite a bit of fog at this time 24 hours ago.
In some cases the condensation pressure deficits per guidance
is not quite as favorable. All in all this leads to less
confidence than it was for me last night regarding the dense
fog. My gut feeling is that a Dense Fog Advisory could still be
required, but it might take longer for that decision to be made.
Low temperatures will be above climo, generally spanning the
60s. Maybe a few of the typically cooler locations will dip
into the upper 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid level ridge axis transitions off the Southeast coast Friday
with shortwave energy to move through the region over the
weekend. High pressure will remain the primary feature at the
surface. A few showers and thunderstorms could sneak into inland
areas Friday, but convection should be a bit more active over
the weekend. Coverage will be highest in the daytime when
instability is maximized, but with some upper forcing in play
activity will be possible overnight as well.

High temperatures generally peak in the mid to upper 80s. Lows
only drop to the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Atlantic high pressure will persist during the early to middle
of next week. Convection looks to be most active early in the
period, then the chances for showers/thunderstorms decrease
towards mid week as ridge rebuilds overhead. Temperatures will
also be creeping up, possibly approaching record levels by
Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Fog and stratus are still expected to occur
during the pre-dawn through mid morning, and dense fog and
conditions down near or below airfield minimums are possible
for several hours. Expect there to be updates, but for now we
have the worst conditions at all terminals between 09Z and 13Z.
It`s possible that with a southeast synoptic flow, the fog and
stratus might be mainly inland from KJZI.

VFR will return around 1300-1330Z, and continue into tonight.
There are no concerns for SHRA or TSRA at any the terminals
with the 06Z TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions possible in
overnight/early morning fog and stratus. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Monday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Overnight: East to southeast winds will prevail with high
pressure centered well offshore. Fog could become an issue in
the Charleston Harbor as fog oozes into the harbor from nearby
areas. The fog could become locally dense with vsbys <1NM. A
Marine Dense Fog Advisory could be needed at some point
overnight. Fog could impact harbor operations in the Charleston
Harbor and Port of Savannah. The fog would not be too much of a
concern over the Atlantic coastal waters given the onshore flow
regime that is in place. This should limit the fog to areas
inland from the beaches. Wind speeds will average less than 10
kt with seas 1-2 ft.

Friday through Tuesday: No marine concerns. Atlantic high
pressure will maintain rather benign conditions over the marine
area. Winds are generally no higher than 10-15 kt with seas 2-3
ft.
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&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...