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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 220801
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
401 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure extending from the Ohio Valley to the eastern Great
Lakes will move to the southeastern states on Tuesday. Low pressure
will track east across the Great Lakes Tuesday, pulling a cold front
south behind it Tuesday night. High pressure will expand into the
Great Lakes Region late Wednesday and influence the weather into
Friday as it slowly moves off the New England Coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure will be overhead today with mostly sunny skies and
generally light southwest winds. Temperatures will recover nicely
after a cool Sunday with most locations running 8-12 degrees warmer.

The upper level ridge over the area will be flattened tonight as
leading shortwave energy arrives in advance of an elongated upper
trough that will deepen across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on
Tuesday. Mid and high cloud will overspread the area tonight then
lower into Tuesday as a ribbon of higher theta-e air advects
northeast ahead of surface low pressure moving into the Upper Great
Lakes. A low level jet with 40-45 knots at 850mb will provide
support for showers to develop Tuesday morning in NW Ohio then
expand eastward in coverage through the afternoon as low levels
moisten and PW values increase to near an inch. An 80-85 knot speed
max at 500mb will provide additional support through the afternoon.
With extensive cloud cover and low dewpoints early on there is
little to no instability forecast during the day on Tuesday. Have
worded the forecast as just showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms arriving late in the day for the Toledo area. Given
the strong wind field overhead with 40-45 knots at 925mb during the
morning, gusty wind briefly reaching 30-35 mph are possible ahead of
the showers. The rain should have a stabilizing effect on the
boundary layer with wind gusts later in the day limited to 20-25
mph. High temperatures will also occur early in the day before the
rain arrives with evaporational cooling and wet conditions limiting
additional rises.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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A cold front will sweep through Tuesday night, with rain showers
(and perhaps a rumble of thunder) in the forecast ahead of the
frontal passage Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Not seeing a
noteworthy severe weather or heavy rain threat with this system,
just your standard cold front with some showers and a bit of thunder
ahead of it. Drier weather spreads in on Wednesday as Canadian high
pressure builds in out of the upper Midwest, though moist/chilly
northerly flow continuing beneath a lowering subsidence inversion
Wednesday morning keeps a rather cloudy forecast going into
Wednesday...with low POPs for some sprinkles or light rain showers
lingering into Wednesday morning east of Lorain and Mansfield. Once
we clear that out, dry weather is in store for the rest of the short
term. Skies will gradually clear from the northwest Wednesday
afternoon and evening, with mostly sunny/clear skies and
high pressure expected Wednesday night through Thursday night.

Lows Tuesday night will generally fall into the 40s with only modest
recovery for highs on Wednesday, ranging from the mid to upper 40s
for most of our forecast area to perhaps the low 50s towards I-75
and our southern fringes (Marion-Canton). Wind gusts of 20-25 MPH
are likely Wednesday, especially in the morning. Lows Wednesday
night will generally fall into the upper 20s/lower 30s as high
pressure brings clear/calm conditions. It will be slightly warmer
near the immediate lakeshore and likely a bit colder in typically
favorable radiational cooling spots. Highs return into the 50s area-
wide for Thursday, with perhaps a few spots approaching 60. Lows
Thursday night will mainly range from the mid 30s to near 40, with a
few colder spots possible out east with another decent radiational
cooling setup behind departing high pressure. A freeze is on the
table away from the lakeshore Wednesday night, with strong
radiational cooling conditions likely supporting widespread frost as
well for all except for those who can literally see Lake Erie out
their back window. Expect headlines. Likely some frost Thursday
night into early Friday as well, though that appears more confined
to locations that radiationally cool better east of I-71.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The long term will feature a trough over the western CONUS and a
building ridge over the eastern CONUS. Expect above-average
temperatures to return for the long term, likely well into the 70s
on Saturday and Sunday with mild overnight lows. Rain potential is
more uncertain, as low pressure and the stronger forcing associated
with it will lift through the upper Midwest on Saturday, with
another low pressure on its heels taking a similar track later
Sunday into Monday. As a warm front lifts through ahead of the first
low Friday night into Saturday there will likely be some shower /
thunder potential. Have a mix of chance to likely POPs (generally 40-
60%) to cover this apparent window of increased shower potential
with the warm front. We`re not looking at a washout rain, though all
models have an uptick in shower and thunder potential Friday night
into Saturday with the warm frontal passage. Otherwise, have an
assortment of chance (30-50%) POPs Saturday afternoon through
Sunday, as we will become somewhat warm/humid and weakly unstable in
the warm sector while forcing that can lead to greater rain
potential stays off to our west/northwest. A cold front may push in
from the northwest late Saturday night or Sunday as the first low
pressure passes by well to our north, though only the GFS
successfully brings the front into our area while other operational
models keep the front to our northwest. Given broad ridging over the
eastern CONUS and the models involved, the official forecast leans
more towards us remaining in the warm sector Saturday night and
Sunday, meaning POPs stay in the chance range and temperatures stay
on the warmer side. The next apparent window of higher rain
potential may be later Monday as the next wave of low pressure lifts
into the Great Lakes and pushes a cold front towards us.

Highs are forecast to rise into the upper 60s/lower 70s on Friday,
the low to mid 70s on Saturday, and well into the 70s area-wide on
Sunday. The airmass may support 80 by Sunday but enough uncertainty
to not go quite the warm yet. Overnight lows likely dip into the 50s
Friday night but may struggle to get below 60 in a good chunk of the
area Saturday and Sunday nights, assuming we stay in the warm
sector. It may turn somewhat breezy Saturday and Sunday afternoons,
though unlikely to be hazardous. It will likely be a struggle to
advect in a strong enough elevated mixed layer (EML) or sufficiently
rich low-level moisture for a notable severe threat this weekend,
especially with the stronger forcing and shear likely staying off to
our west and northwest. Thunder is in the forecast at times but am
not seeing reason to ring the "severe" bell yet.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Excellent aviation conditions are expected through the TAF
period. Skies will be mostly clear until after 00Z/23 when high
cloud will increase from west to east. Winds will be less than 7
knots through 14Z and generally out of the southwest. CLE/ERI
may go variable for a short window. Otherwise all sites expected
to have southwesterly winds on Monday afternoon with a few gusts
to 20 knots possible at TOL/FDY. Winds tonight will be out of
the south and will increase towards 12Z.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers/low ceilings Tuesday night
and may persist into Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
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Tranquil marine conditions continue through this evening. Southwest
winds begin increasing ahead of an approaching cold front overnight
tonight into Tuesday, with southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots
expected for much of the day Tuesday. While this will build the
largest waves into the Canadian waters of the central and eastern
basins, the low-level jet may be strong enough to support 20 knot or
greater sustained winds in some of the nearshore zones west of
Cleveland. We may need to mull over a Small Craft Advisory for the
southwest winds on Tuesday in future packages. Winds should slacken
for several hours Tuesday evening before flipping around to the
north early Wednesday morning behind a cold front and increasing to
15 to 25 knots once again. This will build solid 4-7 footers in the
nearshore waters of the central basin near Cleveland on Wednesday,
with 2-4 or 3-5 footers elsewhere. Higher confidence in the eventual
need for Small Craft Advisories for most of the nearshore waters for
Wednesday. Generally tranquil marine conditions are expected to
return for Thursday and Friday as high pressure slides through.
Southwest winds may be a bit elevated at times Saturday and Sunday
with some potential for a few thunderstorms as well.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ003-006-008-
     010-011-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002-003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Sullivan