National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 150607
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington OH
207 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region late this afternoon
into the evening. In the wake of the front high pressure
controls the region through Tuesday morning. The next warm
front approaches from the Mid Ohio Valley on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The severe thunderstorm watch expired at 11 PM. This should end
the severe weather threat for tonight although an isolated storm
or two could produce hail between pea to half inch size hail.
Did extend low pops through the night as activity has been back
building all evening and continues along the cold front as it slowly
settles south.

Previous discussion...The better lift associated with this
storm system is currently(1930Z) moving across Lake Erie. PBZ
sounding is indicating rather dry low levels as the lift moves
in to assist in eroding the cap that has been over the region
through the day. We are seeing a little bit of low level
moisture increase ahead of the front and just ahead of this
lift. This should all combine to generate convection over the
next hour or so with the expectation of upscale growth. Still
leaning toward an isolated to scattered coverage as the cold
front sags southward across the lake.

The drier low levels lead us to a greater wind threat with any
of the stronger updrafts that develop. While there is a
marginal or greater risk of severe thunderstorms near and south
of a Wattsburg to Findlay line it appears that the greatest
threat is across our southeastern CWA. This area is mainly near
and east of I-77. There is potential for a couple supercells so
large hail may also accompany the damaging wind gust potential.
It looks like the main time period for these thunderstorms to
occur will be between 4 PM and 10 PM.

In the wake of the cold front high pressure will increase its
influence on the region. This ridge then gradually drifts
eastward through the day. Lows tonight dip into the 40`s. Highs
Monday range from the upper 50`s across inland NW PA to around
70 across NW OH.

The quiet weather continues into Monday night but the next warm
front will be approaching from the middle Mississippi Valley.
So there may be an increase in high level cloud cover late in
the night. Lows range from the upper 30`s across inland NW PA to
the mid 40`s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
An upper trough will move through the central CONUS on Tuesday and
will support a low pressure system that will move through the Great
Lakes on Wednesday. For Tuesday, a warm front will extend ahead of
the system and lift toward the lake and rain chances will increase
as the feature enters the forecast area. A ridge across the region
will likely limit both the coverage and intensity of rain on
Tuesday, although some mid-level vorticity advection will move
through the area to help break down the ridge a bit. The main show
appears to be Wednesday as the front will lift north across the lake
and the main forcing mechanisms of the surface low and upper trough
will enter the region to allow for widespread rain chances. The
system will be fairly dynamic with good jet energy and moisture will
advect into the region. There will some instability to allow for
some rumbles but as far as widespread storm chances, it`s a bit
tricky to figure this far out, as there could be issues with lots of
rain in the region to wipe out a large threat, especially this far
north. However, will continue to highlight high PoPs and Wednesday
will need to be monitored as the details become more clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term forecast trend will be largely drier and cooler
through the weekend. There will be some smaller chances for rain
through the period, but greatly diminished after the more active mid
week system. The long term forecast will mostly be driven by an
upper trough that will dig into the upper Midwest on Thursday,
moving east through Canada through Friday and Saturday. Energy
behind this trough will then swing through the Great Lakes region
for the weekend and bring cooler temperatures across the area, along
with high pressure that should drive a dry period to transition into
next week. Rain chances for the first half of the period will be
driven by a front remaining across the Ohio Valley region from the
midweek system. Any rain chances seem marginal as the main upper
level support seems to be drifting off to the northeast. The region
will be on the cold side of the front though and temperatures will
decrease through the period starting with 60s on Thursday down to
barely lower 50s on Sunday. Nighttime lows will be trending cooler
for the weekend into next week and frost/freeze potential does exist.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Scattered thunderstorms along and south of US-30 are continuing
to exit the region to the southeast. Overall VFR conditions
should persist through the TAF period as high pressure builds
overhead for Monday. Broken to scattered 7000 to 8000 ft cloud
deck should clear out by sunrise today.

Generally north-northeast flow between 5-10 knots this morning
and afternoon will become light and variable near the end of the
TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic rain showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Strong offshore flow will continue over the next couple of hours to
allow for hazardous weather conditions for small craft on Lake Erie
and will maintain the headline through this evening. A front will
then cross the lake and allow for northerly flow to take over across
the lake and diminish, allowing for any headline to end. High
pressure will be over the lake on Monday and allow for lighter flow
to develop. A warm front will lift to the lake on Tuesday and
promote easterly flow across the basin. The front will lift north of
the lake for Wednesday as a low pressure system moves through the
Great Lakes region and there will be concern for a marine headline
with that system, as robust southeast flow will be expected on
Wednesday and a window of enhanced southwest flow will be expected
on Wednesday night into Thursday behind the system.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...