Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 230010
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
810 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift towards the region tonight before
exiting to the northeast Saturday morning as a cold front
tracks east across the area. High pressure will return to the
Great Lakes by Saturday afternoon and persist through the
remainder of the weekend. The next system will approach from the
west Monday and cross the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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8:00 PM Update:
Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Northwest PA for light
mixed precipitation through the night, as wet bulb cooling has
caused all of Erie and much of Crawford County to cool to near
or slightly below freezing a bit quicker than initially hoped.
Will be monitoring Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula in OH for
possible expansion over the next couple of hours.
Precip has blossomed from North Central and Northeast OH into
Northwest PA this evening. Due to very dry low-levels ahead of
the precip most areas saw some sleet and snow on the front end.
Per dual pol radar products and obs, locations from roughly an
Eastlake to Meadville line points north are still seeing mainly
snow with mainly rain perhaps mixed with a bit of sleet farther
south. There should be enough warm air advection to change most
of the remaining snow over to liquid for a few hours later this
evening into the overnight before temperatures aloft start
cooling from northwest to southeast...though it`s possible
northern Erie County PA stays mainly snow and sleet. Our western
counties are mainly dry at the moment, though a band of
precipitation driven by deformation and support from the right-
entrance quadrant of a jet streak will sweep through later this
evening into tonight. As this band sweeps in temperatures aloft
will begin cooling, so expect some light snow with it across
Northwest OH. This band of precip should correspond with a
change back to mainly snow as it continues farther southeast
overnight. Most areas will see less than an inch of snow if any
manages to stick, though if northern Erie County PA struggles to
change to liquid precip they could see up to a couple inches.
As for icing concerns, the combination of precip starting as
snow (which will cool pavements a bit) and wet-bulb cooling
already bringing air temperatures to or slightly below freezing
has increased confidence in freezing rain occurring. There`s
potential for icing on some paved surfaces (especially walkways,
bridges and overpasses), which is enough to hoist a Winter Wx
Advisory for Northwest PA through early Saturday. Since issuing
the advisory at 6:30 parts of Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula
have also cooled to slightly below freezing. If these
temperatures do not show signs of recovering soon we will
likely need to expand the advisory into these areas.
Previous Discussion:
Low pressure will track east across the Ohio Valley and into the
Mid-Atlantic tonight. Showers will continue to lift into the
CWA ahead of the low`s warm front late this afternoon into this
evening, but it might take quite some time for precip to reach
the surface so maintained chance PoPs for the time being. If
precip does manage to reach the surface through early this
evening, it will likely be very light and scattered. Dew point
depressions are currently at least 20 degrees in most spots;
will need to keep an eye on the potential for wet bulbing that
could produce a brief burst of snow at the onset, but soundings
indicate an environment that`s better suited for rain. The lower
levels should saturate throughout the evening and PoPs increase
further tonight.
Uncertainty in precip type remains for tonight as cooler air and
better moisture arrive from the northwest and rain begins to
transition to snow. Forecast soundings still indicate a nose of
warm air not far above the surface with freezing or near-
freezing temps at the surface, however there`s still
uncertainty in how much surface temperatures drop along and east
of the I-71 corridor before temperatures cool aloft and precip
transitions completely to snow. Surface temps will be very
marginal (30 to 34 degrees), but the environment looks a bit
more favorable for a few hours of a wintry mix (primarily
freezing rain, rain, and snow) across the higher elevations of
interior far NE OH into NW PA overnight with lower chances and
an even shorter duration in other locations east of I-71. Any
ice accumulations should only be around a trace to a few
hundredths of an inch and primarily confined to elevated
surfaces. Opted against a Winter Weather Advisory for now due to
the short duration and remaining uncertainty, but one may be
needed if confidence increases over the next few hours.
Currently thinking the area with the best chance for impactful
freezing rain accumulation and perhaps the need for an advisory would
be across the higher elevations of Geauga and Erie (PA)
counties. Otherwise, it`s possible that any brief freezing rain
potential could be handled with shorter-fused SPSs. For
snowfall, accumulations of few tenths of an inch are possible
north of Route 30 with locally higher amounts close to an inch
possible in Erie County, PA. Overnight lows will be in the mid
to upper 20s to lower 30s.
Precip will quickly exit to the east as the low lifts into the
northeastern CONUS by 12Z/8 AM Saturday morning and dry weather
will continue through Saturday night. High temps will be in the
mid to upper 30s to lower 40s with overnight lows in the low to
mid 20s.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
At 12Z/Sun, high pressure will be centered over Ontario with a ridge
extending southward into the area. This high and associated ridge
will depart to the east Sunday and Sunday night, with a quick
warming trend with highs in 40s on Sunday and in the low 60s on
Monday. Low pressure starts to approach from the west, with rain
shower chances possible late Monday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A large upper-level trough approaches from the west, with its
associated surface low lifting to the northern Great Lakes region
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rain showers associated with this system
spread across the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. Average QPF is
around 0.25-0.50", so a good soaker but no flooding is expected.
Current PoPs are around 70-80% areawide, and will likely increase to
near 100% once we get closer and confidence increases in exact
timing. High pressure builds in and temperatures cool back down to
near normal with highs around 50 on Thursday and Friday.
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.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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Precip impacting MFD to CLE points east as we come up on 0z. The
leading edge of this is starting as a mix of sleet and snow with
non-VFR vsby. Otherwise, we are mainly VFR at the moment. As
winds turn more northerly and precip fills in to the west and
sweeps across the rest of the area all will see ceilings and
vsby fall later this evening into the overnight. Precip will
change to snow from northwest to southeast between about 3-10z,
with a period of sleet and freezing rain likely during the
transition at some sites, especially MFD, CAK, and YNG. At ERI
temperatures may hang at or just below freezing all evening, so
while the current frozen precip should mix with liquid for a
few hours light icing will be possible before flipping back to
snow overnight. Timed the precip type transition at all sites as
best as possible. Everyone will likely see a period of IFR
ceilings tonight into Saturday morning. Improvement will be
quickest at TOL early Saturday, followed by CLE, ERI, and FDY.
MFD, CAK, and YNG will likely take around midday to climb back
above IFR. Gradual improvement is expected to continue with all
sites returning to VFR by later in the afternoon or evening.
Winds will be out of the east/northeast at 6 to 12 knots through
this evening before becoming more northerly tonight into
Saturday morning. Sustained winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts
to 25 knots are likely by late Saturday morning.
Outlook...Non-VFR in clouds possible through Saturday afternoon
and non-VFR possible in rain showers Tuesday into early
Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure moves across the Ohio Valley this evening and to the
east coast by Saturday. East winds of 15-20 knots have developed in
response, becoming northeast this evening and then north early
Saturday morning, with speeds around 15-20 knots lasting through
Saturday evening. A small craft advisory is in effect for these
conditions through Saturday afternoon/evening. High pressure builds
in Saturday night and Sunday before departing to the east Sunday
night. Winds become easterly Sunday night and there could be a
period of around 20 knots, especially in the western basin. Winds
become southeasterly Monday through Tuesday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ142-143.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ144>148.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ149.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
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SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Maines/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Saunders