Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 230010 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 810 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will lift towards the region tonight before exiting to the northeast Saturday morning as a cold front tracks east across the area. High pressure will return to the Great Lakes by Saturday afternoon and persist through the remainder of the weekend. The next system will approach from the west Monday and cross the area Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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8:00 PM Update: Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Northwest PA for light mixed precipitation through the night, as wet bulb cooling has caused all of Erie and much of Crawford County to cool to near or slightly below freezing a bit quicker than initially hoped. Will be monitoring Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula in OH for possible expansion over the next couple of hours. Precip has blossomed from North Central and Northeast OH into Northwest PA this evening. Due to very dry low-levels ahead of the precip most areas saw some sleet and snow on the front end. Per dual pol radar products and obs, locations from roughly an Eastlake to Meadville line points north are still seeing mainly snow with mainly rain perhaps mixed with a bit of sleet farther south. There should be enough warm air advection to change most of the remaining snow over to liquid for a few hours later this evening into the overnight before temperatures aloft start cooling from northwest to southeast...though it`s possible northern Erie County PA stays mainly snow and sleet. Our western counties are mainly dry at the moment, though a band of precipitation driven by deformation and support from the right- entrance quadrant of a jet streak will sweep through later this evening into tonight. As this band sweeps in temperatures aloft will begin cooling, so expect some light snow with it across Northwest OH. This band of precip should correspond with a change back to mainly snow as it continues farther southeast overnight. Most areas will see less than an inch of snow if any manages to stick, though if northern Erie County PA struggles to change to liquid precip they could see up to a couple inches. As for icing concerns, the combination of precip starting as snow (which will cool pavements a bit) and wet-bulb cooling already bringing air temperatures to or slightly below freezing has increased confidence in freezing rain occurring. There`s potential for icing on some paved surfaces (especially walkways, bridges and overpasses), which is enough to hoist a Winter Wx Advisory for Northwest PA through early Saturday. Since issuing the advisory at 6:30 parts of Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula have also cooled to slightly below freezing. If these temperatures do not show signs of recovering soon we will likely need to expand the advisory into these areas. Previous Discussion: Low pressure will track east across the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Showers will continue to lift into the CWA ahead of the low`s warm front late this afternoon into this evening, but it might take quite some time for precip to reach the surface so maintained chance PoPs for the time being. If precip does manage to reach the surface through early this evening, it will likely be very light and scattered. Dew point depressions are currently at least 20 degrees in most spots; will need to keep an eye on the potential for wet bulbing that could produce a brief burst of snow at the onset, but soundings indicate an environment that`s better suited for rain. The lower levels should saturate throughout the evening and PoPs increase further tonight. Uncertainty in precip type remains for tonight as cooler air and better moisture arrive from the northwest and rain begins to transition to snow. Forecast soundings still indicate a nose of warm air not far above the surface with freezing or near- freezing temps at the surface, however there`s still uncertainty in how much surface temperatures drop along and east of the I-71 corridor before temperatures cool aloft and precip transitions completely to snow. Surface temps will be very marginal (30 to 34 degrees), but the environment looks a bit more favorable for a few hours of a wintry mix (primarily freezing rain, rain, and snow) across the higher elevations of interior far NE OH into NW PA overnight with lower chances and an even shorter duration in other locations east of I-71. Any ice accumulations should only be around a trace to a few hundredths of an inch and primarily confined to elevated surfaces. Opted against a Winter Weather Advisory for now due to the short duration and remaining uncertainty, but one may be needed if confidence increases over the next few hours. Currently thinking the area with the best chance for impactful freezing rain accumulation and perhaps the need for an advisory would be across the higher elevations of Geauga and Erie (PA) counties. Otherwise, it`s possible that any brief freezing rain potential could be handled with shorter-fused SPSs. For snowfall, accumulations of few tenths of an inch are possible north of Route 30 with locally higher amounts close to an inch possible in Erie County, PA. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 20s to lower 30s. Precip will quickly exit to the east as the low lifts into the northeastern CONUS by 12Z/8 AM Saturday morning and dry weather will continue through Saturday night. High temps will be in the mid to upper 30s to lower 40s with overnight lows in the low to mid 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... At 12Z/Sun, high pressure will be centered over Ontario with a ridge extending southward into the area. This high and associated ridge will depart to the east Sunday and Sunday night, with a quick warming trend with highs in 40s on Sunday and in the low 60s on Monday. Low pressure starts to approach from the west, with rain shower chances possible late Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A large upper-level trough approaches from the west, with its associated surface low lifting to the northern Great Lakes region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rain showers associated with this system spread across the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. Average QPF is around 0.25-0.50", so a good soaker but no flooding is expected. Current PoPs are around 70-80% areawide, and will likely increase to near 100% once we get closer and confidence increases in exact timing. High pressure builds in and temperatures cool back down to near normal with highs around 50 on Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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Precip impacting MFD to CLE points east as we come up on 0z. The leading edge of this is starting as a mix of sleet and snow with non-VFR vsby. Otherwise, we are mainly VFR at the moment. As winds turn more northerly and precip fills in to the west and sweeps across the rest of the area all will see ceilings and vsby fall later this evening into the overnight. Precip will change to snow from northwest to southeast between about 3-10z, with a period of sleet and freezing rain likely during the transition at some sites, especially MFD, CAK, and YNG. At ERI temperatures may hang at or just below freezing all evening, so while the current frozen precip should mix with liquid for a few hours light icing will be possible before flipping back to snow overnight. Timed the precip type transition at all sites as best as possible. Everyone will likely see a period of IFR ceilings tonight into Saturday morning. Improvement will be quickest at TOL early Saturday, followed by CLE, ERI, and FDY. MFD, CAK, and YNG will likely take around midday to climb back above IFR. Gradual improvement is expected to continue with all sites returning to VFR by later in the afternoon or evening. Winds will be out of the east/northeast at 6 to 12 knots through this evening before becoming more northerly tonight into Saturday morning. Sustained winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots are likely by late Saturday morning. Outlook...Non-VFR in clouds possible through Saturday afternoon and non-VFR possible in rain showers Tuesday into early Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE... Low pressure moves across the Ohio Valley this evening and to the east coast by Saturday. East winds of 15-20 knots have developed in response, becoming northeast this evening and then north early Saturday morning, with speeds around 15-20 knots lasting through Saturday evening. A small craft advisory is in effect for these conditions through Saturday afternoon/evening. High pressure builds in Saturday night and Sunday before departing to the east Sunday night. Winds become easterly Sunday night and there could be a period of around 20 knots, especially in the western basin. Winds become southeasterly Monday through Tuesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ001>003. NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ142-143. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ144>148. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ149.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Maines NEAR TERM...Maines/Sullivan SHORT TERM...Saunders LONG TERM...Saunders AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Saunders

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