933
FXUS61 KCLE 110012
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
812 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge will briefly build over the region this evening into
tonight before low pressure moving east across Michigan and
southern Ontario pushes a cold front across the area Saturday. A
trough will linger over the region into Saturday night, but
expect high pressure to return Sunday into early Monday. The
next system will approach from the west Monday afternoon or
evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cloud coverage across the region is diminishing with the diurnal
cycle. Clouds will increase again later overnight with the
approach of a cold front that will then bring rain chances
starting around sunrise on Saturday morning. Have made forecast
tweaks to account for the current sky cover trend.

Previous Discussion...
A ridge will briefly build over the region through this
evening and diurnal cumulus will scatter out this evening and
anticipate mostly clear to clear skies for the majority of
tonight. Temperatures will fall into 40s tonight with the
warmest temps in the upper 40s across NW OH and along the
immediate lakeshore, but interior NE OH and NW PA will dip into
the lower 40s. A few spots in the snowbelt region may attempt
to fall into the upper 30s and lighter winds may allow some
very patchy frost to develop, but temperatures will likely be a
hair too warm and winds may be a bit too high. Left frost out of
the forecast for now but will continue to monitor forecast
temperature trends.

By Saturday morning, low pressure will drop southeast out of
the Upper Great Lakes with a cold front sweeping across the CWA
Saturday morning into the afternoon as the low tracks east
across Michigan and southern Ontario. Clouds increase from the
west late tonight through early Saturday morning and PoPs will
ramp up throughout the morning as the front begins to track
across the CWA. Precip will mostly likely be light and possibly
struggle to reach the surface at the onset, but all locations
should see at least a brief period of rain Saturday morning. The
upper low will meander across the region through the remainder
of the near term period, resulting in periodic, scattered
showers primarily in the eastern half of the CWA. There may be
sufficient instability for some thunder and perhaps small hail
as the cool core of the low passes over the area.

Saturday`s highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with
overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. It will also be quite
breezy on Saturday afternoon with gusts to around 30 mph
possible primarily west of I-71.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions will be drying out on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure
builds east through the Ohio Valley. The upper level low starting
the day near Erie, PA will move off the East Coast by Sunday
evening. Can not rule out a couple light morning showers in the far
east but these should end during the morning. A cooler airmass will
linger in Northwest Pennsylvania on Sunday with high temperatures
limited to around 60 degrees while warm advection develops in our
western counties with highs recovering into the low 70s. Some mid
and high cloud is possible ahead of another piece of shortwave
energy moving through the northwest flow aloft.

By Monday, a closed upper level low will be moving east across the
Plains states while another upper level low passes near James Bay.
Monday will feature above normal temperatures in the warm sector
ahead of a cold front slowly sinking south into the Great Lakes.
This front tends to stall north of Lake Erie on Monday with some
amplification of the upper level ridge moving out of the Plains.
Moisture will be on the increase Monday afternoon and night with
marginal instability developing across mainly northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms
can be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term will start off with active weather as energy streams
north ahead of the trough over the Mississippi Valley. Tuesday looks
to be the wettest day of the week with good moisture convergence as
the front eventually starts to settle south into the area. Surface
low pressure will slide east through the Ohio Valley and expect
instability to be limited north of the low. Temperatures drop back
into the 60s with clouds and showers. The trough shifts to the
Carolina Coast by Wednesday with high pressure returning to the
Central Great Lakes. Showers should generally be ending with clouds
clearing and temperatures trending warmer as the ridge builds
aloft towards the end of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
The VFR cu deck is waning with sunset this evening and will
continue a downward trend with the diurnal cycle. Additional mid
level clouds will enter later overnight and increase in coverage
as a cold front approaches from the west. Rain will then spread
across the region on Saturday as a band of rain showers will
move through ahead of the front. Some additional showers could
develop immediately with the front in NE OH/NW PA which will
support a longer window of rain in these areas. Overall, there
could be some non-VFR potential, mainly into the MVFR range.
However, confidence in non-VFR is low and VFR rain seems to be
the most likely prevailing flight category and have 6SM and rain
with low VFR ceilings at all TAF sites. Winds will start west to
northwest and flip to the south ahead of the front before
returning to the west behind the front.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon and Saturday night. Non-VFR possible in showers
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge will build east across Lake Erie tonight with winds backing
to the south. Winds will increase to 15-20 knots ahead of a low
pressure system moving from Michigan towards Lake Ontario. This
system will pull a cold front east across Lake Erie with winds
veering to northwest behind the front. Conditions will be close to
needing a Small Craft Advisory by Saturday night for the Ohio
waters, generally east of the Lake Erie Islands. Waves are
expected to build to 3 to 5 feet but the duration will only be
for about 12 hours.

A ridge will build north into the Ohio Valley on Sunday with marine
conditions improving quickly. Southwest winds increase to 10-20
knots ahead of a front slowly approaching from the north Sunday
night into Monday. This front will stall near or just north of the
lake into Tuesday before finally pushing south.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Maines/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...KEC