Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 180529
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
129 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will push across the region late tonight through Monday
night with a second trough and a surface cold front arriving
late Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will briefly return
for Thursday, but the next system will approach the region
towards the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

1:29 AM EDT Update...

Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. No changes appeared necessary.

Previous Discussion from 3:54 PM EDT 3/17/24...

Scattered light rain/snow showers will continue to push
southeast across the area this evening before precip transitions
to lake effect in NE OH/NW PA as a trough pivots into the
region tonight through Monday. The trough will drag cooler 850mb
temperatures (-10 to -12C) into the area, but latest forecast
soundings suggest that moisture in the DGZ may be hard to come
by so snowfall rates may not be very efficient tonight into
Monday morning. Moisture and lift appear to become a bit more
favorable by late Monday morning, especially as northwest flow
taps into moisture from the upstream Great Lakes and the upper
trough axis pushes east across the region. As a result, there
will likely be an uptick in snow shower coverage Monday
afternoon and have high end chance PoPs across the entire area
with likely to categorical PoPs across the snowbelt region of NE
OH and NW PA Monday afternoon.

Somewhat similar to today, snow showers may be convective in
nature with pockets of moderate snowfall rates possible; the
main hazard will be reduced visibilities. While the March sun
angle and marginal surface temps will inhibit snow
accumulation, any moderate snowfall rates could result in
efficient snow accumulation, especially on grassy surfaces. Snow
may be able to accumulate a bit more efficiently Monday night,
but by then the best forcing will be exiting to the east and
snow shower coverage will likely diminish a bit.

Snowfall totals will depend on the location of the heavier bands
of snow and whether or not the snowfall rates are able to
overcome the marginal surface temps. Expect less than an inch
of snow accumulation tonight with a dusting to an inch likely
areawide on Monday. Locally higher amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
possible across the highest terrain of the snowbelt region with
the higher amounts closer to 3 inches possible in interior NW
PA. If snow showers manage to hold together Monday night, there
may be an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation across
the interior snowbelt. By the end of the near term period, event
total snowfall totals may approach several inches across
inland NW PA, but do not anticipate any headlines at this time
given the long duration of the event and the potential for
inefficient snow accumulation.

Below normal temperatures continue through the near term period
with Monday`s highs only reaching the mid to upper 30s (lower
30s in interior NW PA). Expect overnight lows in the mid to
upper 20s tonight and Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Northwest flow continues through the short term period, with several
shortwave troughs propagating through this flow across the region,
resulting in periods of clouds and light lake effect precipitation
across mainly the eastern snow belt region of Northwest Pennsylvania
through Wednesday. Wet bulbing should result in most
precipitation falling as snow, despite peak afternoon
temperatures in the low 40s for the snowbelt. The forecast does
have one to four inches of snow accumulation primarily for
inland Northwest Pennsylvania during this period (with trace to
a few tenths elsewhere in the Ohio snowbelt of Northeast Ohio).
This could be a bit too high however, as historically it can be
a challenge (though not impossible) to accumulate snow during
the daytime in March with marginal temperatures. Snow
accumulations Tuesday night should be more efficient though with
overnight lows at or just below freezing. High pressure builds
in from the west Wednesday night, with lake effect precipitation
gradually dissipating. Overnight lows drop to the low 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure becomes centered over the region Thursday afternoon
before departing to the east Thursday night. A very subtle shortwave
trough moves east across the Great Lakes region late Thursday night
through Friday, with light precipitation to accompany it.
Temperatures are likely to be cold enough for precipitation to fall
as snow initially late Thursday night into Friday morning before
transitioning to mostly rain by Friday afternoon/evening. High
pressure gradually builds in Friday night and Saturday with limited
to no precipitation expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
W`erly to NW`erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect
our region through 06Z/Tues. The axis of the strongest
disturbance should move SE`ward across northern OH and NW PA
between ~12Z and ~21Z/Mon. At the surface, a trough lingers in
our region before a weak ridge builds from the western Great
Lakes and vicinity after 00Z/Tues. Our regional surface winds
trend WSW`erly to WNW`erly around 5-15 knots with gusts up to
20-25 knots at times, especially between ~14Z and ~22Z/Mon.

Scattered to widespread low clouds with bases near 3kft to 5kft
AGL persist through the TAF period. Scattered to widespread
lake-effect snow showers are expected ESE of Lake Erie, in/near
the snowbelt of NE OH and NW PA. Periods of isolated to
scattered snow showers are expected elsewhere, especially
between ~14Z and ~21Z/Mon given the passage of the
aforementioned stronger disturbance and limited diurnal
destabilization of the boundary layer. Brief MVFR to LIFR
visibility is expected in steadier to heavy snow.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periods of snow and/or rain this
Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
No changes were made to marine headlines with this forecast update.
West to northwest flow of 15 to 20 knots is expected to continue
through Monday night before shifting to out of the southwest on
Tuesday. Winds weaken Tuesday night with brief high pressure before
northwest winds strengthen to 15 to 25 knots Wednesday and Wednesday
night. Will probably need another small craft advisory for this
period. Winds weaken again as high pressure builds back in Thursday
and Thursday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Maines
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Saunders


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