Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 190106
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
906 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...Late Evening Near Term Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge will build over the region tonight into Tuesday
before a cold front crosses the area Tuesday night. A trough
will linger over the Great Lakes region early Wednesday but
high pressure will return Wednesday evening into Thursday. The
next system will approach the area Thursday night through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
900 pm update...
Well weather conditions have rapidly changed over portions of
the Cleveland metro area, mainly the western and southern
suburbs as well as the secondary snowbelt region this evening.
There is a "MCV" like feature that came off the lake into the
CLE area this evening that is tracking along the Ohio Turnpike
corridor with enhanced lake effect snow of 1 to 2 inch per hour
rates. We have issued a winter weather advisory for parts of the
primary and secondary snowbelt where we can see 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall on top of what has already fallen earlier today. We
have also included parts of NWPA and far NEOH in a winter
weather advisory for lake effect snow because of several reports
from our snow spotters of 1 to 3 inches snowfall from earlier
today and an additional 1 to 3 inches could be possible through
early tomorrow morning.

700 pm update...
With this mid evening update, we made some small adjustments to
the hourly POPs through 06z with the main focus of higher
probabilities being over the primary Snowbelt areas through the
late evening and overnight hours. We will continue to see the
lake effect snow showers and flow from a 270-300 degree
direction through the late evening. The low level flow will
gradually become more west-southwesterly late tonight into
Tuesday morning which will help shift the lake effect more
parallel to the lakeshore and directed into far NEOH and NWPA.
One to three


Previous discussion...
Light snow showers will continue across most of the area through
this evening and another push of moderate snow showers currently
moving southeast downwind from Lake Michigan may move into
southwestern zones by early this evening. Can`t rule out some
quick accumulation on roadways within any moderate bursts of
snow, but reduced visibility will be the primary hazard. The
best forcing will move east of the area tonight and any
lingering lake effect snow showers should shift into the
snowbelt region of NE OH and NW PA as drier air associated with
a weak surface ridge builds in from the west. Winds gradually
back to the southwest Tuesday morning and the remaining lake
effect precip will start to lift north and focus over Lake Erie
and western New York by early afternoon. A few snow showers may
clip the shoreline of NW PA through Thursday afternoon, but
capped PoPs at slight chance to chance due to the strong
southwest flow. It will be quite breezy on Tuesday with
southwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph likely areawide and a brief
period of gusts to 35 to 45 mph possible west of I-71, best
chance near the I-75 corridor. Not anticipating any wind
headlines this time, but will need to continue to monitor wind
guidance in the upcoming updates.

The next trough and surface cold front will sweep across the
area on Tuesday night, but moisture will be limited outside of
the snowbelt region so the frontal passage will be dry for most
of the area. There may be an uptick in rain/snow shower chances
across NE OH/NW PA Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, but PoPs
don`t ramp up much until another burst of cold air advection
arrives behind the front towards the very end of the near term
period.

Warm air advection will provide warmer temperatures Tuesday with
the warmest temps in the upper 40s to lower 50s near the the
I-71 corridor. Maximum temperatures gradually cool to the east
and expect max temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s across NW PA
and far NE OH. Overnight lows will be in the 20s tonight and the
lower 30s Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Northwest flow continues on Wednesday with a more defined upper-
level trough moving southeast across the Great Lakes region
Wednesday before departing to the east Wednesday night. Temperatures
aloft cool rapidly Wednesday evening/night with the passage of this
upper-level trough, dipping down to -12 C at 850mb by 00Z/Thu and -
15 C by 12Z/Thu, which should be more than enough to produce
moderate lake-induced instability for lake effect precipitation.
However, most model guidance has the best forcing and moisture
content during the day Wednesday, with moisture content diminishing
Wednesday night and Thursday as upper-level ridging and surface high
pressure gradually builds in from the west. Surface temperatures
during the day Wednesday are fairly marginal with afternoon
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, maybe into the low 40s. Any
minor snow accumulations will probably be limited to mainly inland
Northwest Pennsylvania, but marginal temperatures and a March sun
angle should limit snow accumulations until the evening time.
Through Wednesday night, only expecting about an inch of snow
accumulations, with locally higher amounts to 2-3 inches in eastern
Erie County.

High pressure builds in Thursday, before departing to the east
Thursday night. Lingering chilly temperatures are expected, with
highs on Thursday running about 10-15 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper-level trough moves east across Ontario, Canada with the
base of this trough skimming the Great Lakes region. Another upper-
level shortwave trough moves east across the southeast and/or mid-
Atlantic region at the same time. Moisture content and lift provided
by both of these features will likely result in periods of
precipitation Friday afternoon through Friday night. There is wide
spread in the temperature forecast within model guidance. As the
high pressure departs, typically we have warm southerly winds, but
the low to the southeast sufficiently alters the wind field that
some models keep the region cool/cold, especially the northern part
of the forecast area. However, some models do have it warming up.
Currently the forecast is for low to mid 40s but it`s likely to be
different. This could alter the precipitation type. Rain is most
likely but some light snow accumulations Friday and Friday night are
not out of the equation, especially north of US-30.

Most model guidance has some lake effect precipitation developing on
the backside of these departing systems on Saturday. Per usual,
marginal temperatures probably limit any snow accumulations with
this. Substantially warmer temperatures are expected next week with
forecast highs already into the upper 50s for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Conditions will range from VFR to localized low end MVFR, and
possibly brief IFR this evening into the overnight. VFR
conditions are expected outside of lake effect snow showers
which will mainly impact the primary and secondary snowbelt
region this evening. Ceilings will drop between 1500 to 3000
feet with passing snow showers. Heavier, brief bursts of lake
effect snow showers will bring down visibilities between 1sm and
3sm at times. These lower flight category changes may impact
CLE, CAK, YNG and ERI this evening. The snow showers will start
to push more into far NEOH and NWPA by early Tuesday morning and
impact ERI through the morning hours before tapering off. VFR
conditions for all sites will return Tuesday morning through
the afternoon as ceilings lift above 5000 feet. West-northwest
winds this evening will be around 8 to 12 knots. The winds will
become southwesterly by Tuesday morning through the afternoon
between 15 to 20 knots. Gusts will return by mid morning and
increase between 20 and 30 plus knots during the day.

Outlook...
Non-VFR expected with periods of snow and/or rain in
northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday. Additional non-VFR possible in
rain/snow showers areawide late Thursday through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots this evening and tonight become
southwest to 20 to 30 knots on Tuesday. A small craft advisory has
been issued for west of Avon Point through 00Z/Wed. There`s a bit of
a lull Tuesday night but winds strengthen to 20 to 25 knots out of
the northwest on Wednesday and Wednesday night, so it`s very likely
an extension to all small craft advisory may be needed. Winds weaken
has high pressure builds in on Thursday. Easterly flow expected on
Friday followed by northwest flow on Saturday. There is some
uncertainty with how strong this northwest flow will be.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ010-011-
     020>022.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ013-014.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ002-003.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Maines
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Griffin/Maines/26
MARINE...Saunders


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