Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 190604
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
204 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge will build over the region tonight into Tuesday
before a cold front crosses the area Tuesday night. A trough
will linger over the Great Lakes region early Wednesday but
high pressure will return Wednesday evening into Thursday. The
next system will approach the area Thursday night through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

2:03 AM EDT Update...

The forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. No changes appeared necessary.

Previous Discussion from 3:59 PM EDT March 18th...

Light snow showers will continue across most of the area
through this evening and another push of moderate snow showers
currently moving southeast downwind from Lake Michigan may move
into southwestern zones by early this evening. Can`t rule out
some quick accumulation on roadways within any moderate bursts
of snow, but reduced visibility will be the primary hazard. The
best forcing will move east of the area tonight and any
lingering lake effect snow showers should shift into the
snowbelt region of NE OH and NW PA as drier air associated with
a weak surface ridge builds in from the west. Winds gradually
back to the southwest Tuesday morning and the remaining lake
effect precip will start to lift north and focus over Lake Erie
and western New York by early afternoon. A few snow showers may
clip the shoreline of NW PA through Thursday afternoon, but
capped PoPs at slight chance to chance due to the strong
southwest flow. It will be quite breezy on Tuesday with
southwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph likely areawide and a brief
period of gusts to 35 to 45 mph possible west of I-71, best
chance near the I-75 corridor. Not anticipating any wind
headlines this time, but will need to continue to monitor wind
guidance in the upcoming updates.

The next trough and surface cold front will sweep across the
area on Tuesday night, but moisture will be limited outside of
the snowbelt region so the frontal passage will be dry for most
of the area. There may be an uptick in rain/snow shower chances
across NE OH/NW PA Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, but PoPs
don`t ramp up much until another burst of cold air advection
arrives behind the front towards the very end of the near term
period.

Warm air advection will provide warmer temperatures Tuesday with
the warmest temps in the upper 40s to lower 50s near the the
I-75 corridor. Maximum temperatures gradually cool to the east
and expect max temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s across NW PA
and far NE OH. Overnight lows will be in the 20s tonight and the
lower 30s Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Northwest flow continues on Wednesday with a more defined
upper-level trough moving southeast across the Great Lakes
region Wednesday before departing to the east Wednesday night.
Temperatures aloft cool rapidly Wednesday evening/night with the
passage of this upper-level trough, dipping down to -12C at
850mb by 00Z/Thu and -15C by 12Z/Thu, which should be more than
enough to produce moderate lake-induced instability for lake
effect precipitation. However, most model guidance has the best
forcing and moisture content during the day Wednesday, with
moisture content diminishing Wednesday night and Thursday as
upper-level ridging and surface high pressure gradually builds
in from the west. Surface temperatures during the day Wednesday
are fairly marginal with afternoon temperatures in the mid to
upper 30s, maybe into the low 40s. Any minor snow accumulations
will probably be limited to mainly inland Northwest
Pennsylvania, but marginal temperatures and a March sun angle
should limit snow accumulations until the evening time. Through
Wednesday night, only expecting about an inch of snow
accumulations, with locally higher amounts to 2-3 inches in
eastern Erie County.

High pressure builds in Thursday, before departing to the east
Thursday night. Lingering chilly temperatures are expected, with
highs on Thursday running about 10-15 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper-level trough moves east across Ontario, Canada with the
base of this trough skimming the Great Lakes region. Another upper-
level shortwave trough moves east across the southeast and/or mid-
Atlantic region at the same time. Moisture content and lift provided
by both of these features will likely result in periods of
precipitation Friday afternoon through Friday night. There is wide
spread in the temperature forecast within model guidance. As the
high pressure departs, typically we have warm southerly winds, but
the low to the southeast sufficiently alters the wind field that
some models keep the region cool/cold, especially the northern part
of the forecast area. However, some models do have it warming up.
Currently the forecast is for low to mid 40s but it`s likely to be
different. This could alter the precipitation type. Rain is most
likely but some light snow accumulations Friday and Friday night are
not out of the equation, especially north of US-30.

Most model guidance has some lake effect precipitation developing on
the backside of these departing systems on Saturday. Per usual,
marginal temperatures probably limit any snow accumulations with
this. Substantially warmer temperatures are expected next week with
forecast highs already into the upper 50s for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
At the surface, a weak ridge exits E`ward through ~12Z/Tues and
is followed by a trough overspreading northern OH and NW PA
from the western Great Lakes and vicinity through 06Z/Wed. In
addition, a cold front is expected to sweep E`ward through
northern OH and NW PA between ~22Z/Tues and ~05Z/Wed.

W`erly to WNW`erly regional surface winds back to SW`erly behind
the surface ridge axis and remain around 10-15 knots with gusts
up to 20-25 knots at times. After 14Z/Tues, SW`erly surface
winds are expected to increase to 15-25 knots and gust up to
25-35 knots through ~22Z/Tues. Once the cold front passes,
regional surface winds veer to W`erly and ease to around 10-15
knots. These post-front winds should gust up to 20-25 knots in
the immediate lee of Lake Erie, including at KERI.

Widespread low clouds with ceilings near 3kft to 5kft AGL exit
E`ward with the passage of the aforementioned surface ridge
axis. Lingering lake-effect snow showers and associated
VFR/MVFR low-level ceilings streaming ESE`ward from Lake Erie
at 06Z/Tues will shift gradually N`ward this morning and should
be offshore northern OH and NW PA by ~13Z/Tues as mean low-level
flow backs from WNW`erly to SW`erly. However, behind the cold
front, lake-effect snow showers and associated VFR/MVFR low-
level ceilings should redevelop and stream generally E`ward
across far-NE OH and NW PA toward 06Z/Wed.

As for the cold front, limited low-level moisture should permit
a dry front passage, especially in northern OH. However, isolated
snow showers, perhaps mixed with rain, may accompany the front
in NW PA. Visibility is expected to vary between VFR and IFR in
precip, especially lake-effect precip.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periods of snow and/or rain on
Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots this evening and tonight become
southwest to 20 to 30 knots on Tuesday. A small craft advisory has
been issued for west of Avon Point through 00Z/Wed. There`s a bit of
a lull Tuesday night but winds strengthen to 20 to 25 knots out of
the northwest on Wednesday and Wednesday night, so it`s very likely
an extension to all small craft advisory may be needed. Winds weaken
has high pressure builds in on Thursday. Easterly flow expected on
Friday followed by northwest flow on Saturday. There is some
uncertainty with how strong this northwest flow will be.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     OHZ010-011-020>022.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ013-
     014.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002-
     003.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Maines
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Saunders


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