Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 131115
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
715 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will settle south to Lake Erie and stall today. Low
pressure will track out of the Plains towards the Great Lakes on
Thursday with this front first lifting north as a warm front then
back south as a cold front through Friday. A ridge builds into the
Ohio Valley on Friday night then shifts south on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A surface analysis shows low pressure over Lake Huron that will
track east today. A weak frontal boundary will settle south to near
Lake Erie and stall. Southerly winds and dry conditions will
continue for another day with a ridge parked over the Smokey
Mountains. Most locations will see temperatures top out a couple
degrees higher than yesterday with the exception being near
Lake Erie where a pseudo lake breeze enhanced by the advancing
front is expected to cause a wind shift off the lake this
afternoon. Factored this in with highs occurring towards midday
at Erie, PA and by mid afternoon at Cleveland although timing
and strength of this lake breeze certainly leaves room for error
in the temperature forecast. A fairly thick cirrus deck
overhead to start the day is expected to thin as shortwave
energy shifts to the east.

From Wednesday night into Thursday, surface low pressure will
track out of the Plains towards the Great Lakes. Convection is
forecast to develop across Illinois as a 40-50 knot low level
jet interacts with the warm front in Illinois. Deep southerly
flow increases with moisture returning to the region. There is
some potential for showers associated with the warm front to
reach Northwest Ohio as early as Thursday morning but less
certain if they will materialize given the recent dry airmass.
It seems more likely that we will still be fairly dry for the
first part of the day with showers and a chance of thunderstorms
developing during the afternoon although models have some
disagreement with the placement of better mid level moisture,
possibly resulting from differences in handling of the activity
moving out of Illinois from earlier in the day. Kept pops
fairly high on Thursday afternoon as even the drier NAM has good
low level theta-e advection. There is some potential for rain
to hold off until Thursday night when the cold front approaches
and will need to refine pops through tomorrow based on trends.
MU CAPE values are generally at or below 500 J/kg except
increasing to between 500-1000 J/kg as we approach 00Z along the
I-75 corridor. 0-6 KM shear is strong however at around 50
knots so if any better updrafts materialize can not rule out a
couple stronger thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has
placed the western half of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk
of severe thunderstorms and will continue to monitor this
potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the short term
period late Thursday evening and overnight as an area of low
pressure drags a weak cold front east across the area. One notable
change in the forecast was that much of Northwest and North Ohio is
now under an SPC SWODY2 marginal risk. Surface instability is
forecast to be fairly marginal, but the mid-level shear profiles
remain consistently strong. Will need to watch for the possibility
of some stronger storms with primarily a wind threat as the cold
front moves east across the area overnight Thursday.

Otherwise, precipitation chances should quickly diminish through
Friday morning as temperatures fall back into the 50s, albeit
remaining above-average for this time of the year. Drier
weather will return for Saturday as brief high pressure builds into
the region. Temperatures will remain above average in the mid-50s.
However, rain chances increase once again by Saturday night
as another low pressure system slides southeast across the Upper and
Eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A sense of reality will eventually return for the long term period
as we transition back to a troughing regime across the eastern
CONUS. Near-normal high temperatures in the 40s on Sunday are
expected to drop to below average into the 30s with snow becoming
likely by Monday and Tuesday. Ensemble clustering continues to
exhibit a high degree of confidence in 850 mb temperatures dropping
below -10 degrees C, with even 10 to 20% chances of briefly dropping
below -14 degrees C Monday night into Tuesday morning. This colder
air mass will likely result in additional lake-effect snow Monday
night into Tuesday following the passage of an upper-level trough on
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions will continue through at least 09Z Thursday.
Varying amounts of mid and high level cloud will pass overhead
but generally at or above 7K feet. Terminals can expect a
southwest wind at 7-12 knots today. A stationary front will
settle south and stall across Lake Erie this afternoon. This
will enhance a lake breeze off Lake Erie that will reach CLE and
ERI and possibly even drift as far south as YNG.

A chance of showers develops across NW Ohio towards the end of
the TAF period as moisture increases along a warm front.
Confidence in timing and coverage was too low to include at
TOL/FDY yet but did add a vicinity shower mention at CLE by
16-18Z. Did not include any mention of thunderstorms but there
is a low chance.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periodic rain showers Thursday
through Sunday. Periodic thunderstorms possible Thursday
through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Primarily quiet marine conditions are expected across the lake
through the much of the week and into much of the weekend. Will need
to start monitoring Small Craft potential by late Saturday as
southwest winds increase to near 20 knots, especially across the
western basin of the lake. A cold front is then expected to move
east across the lake by Sunday, ushering in more favorable westerly
flow of 15 to 20 knots for Small Craft potential. West to northwest
flow of 15 to 20 knots may persist into early week with Small Craft
conditions remaining possible.

A few stronger thunderstorms are possible late Thursday and Thursday
night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Kahn


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